Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I have to take care of some stuff this afternoon (General Election FEC filing, speaking before a class at Penn) so here is an open thread to tell the world what is on your mind.

Also, here are some quick hitters:
  • I was looking at the Survey USA poll on TX-23, and Ciro wins if Latino turnout hits 45% or more of the electorate. Right now, Latinos are forecasted to be 36% of the electorate. The census shows the population of the district to be 55% of the electorate. I have no idea what percentage of the eligible voting population is Latino. For all the great shifts toward Democrats among Latinos in this election, we need far more work on Latino voter registration and outreach as a party.

  • Adam B has the latest rundown of legal experts on FL-13. It looks as thought that will be the final election decided this year. Or, then again, maybe it won't even be decided this year (I hope not). The House should declare the sat vacant and force a new election.

  • Check out the Dailykos straw poll before it gets stuffed. Removing Gore, Feingold and Warner, and adding Obama, changes things quite a bit from most of the polls conducted in 2006. Now, it is a three way race between Clark, Edwards and Obama.

    Also, I know that some Obama people won't believe me, but I spent a long time choosing between Edwards and Obama. Of course, according to some people, any criticism of Obama means that I am "bashing him" or dismissing him outright. I wish it occurred to certain die-hards (and those who think the opinions of progressives don't matter) that sometimes the reason you frequently write about someone--even the reason you criticize someone--is because that person means so much to you and appears to have tremendous potential, not because you dislike the person.

    This will be an ugly primary season online, considering the lack of tolerance for criticism many have (among other reasons). I eventually went with Edwards, but my support can definitely shift at this extremely early stage. And I am not just talking about shifting between only Obama and Edwards--my mind remains wide open.
Discuss these and other topics.

Tags: FL-13, Open Threads, President 2008, TX-23 (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I'm with you about Edwards and I'm from IL and love Obama.  An Edwards/Obama ticket would be a grand slam.  I was originally hoping to see Edwards with Bill Nelson or Bob Graham on the ticket to possibly put FL in contention.  But any ticket headed by Edwards with Obama/Clark/Richardson would work out an Electoral College Victory.

by jarod 2006-12-06 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I know this is unlikely to happen but maybe for the next 6-9 months you could have a gentleman's agreement to segregate '08 Presidential politics to weekends (Fri night to Sunday). None of this '08 discussion is BREAKING NEWS!!! urgent - it's mostly speculation. 'Wouldn't it be great if the ticket was Gore/Obama?' isn't political discussion - it's fan boy dreaming. It's the same as saying 'Wouldn't it be great if Tom Brady was the QB of the Redskins?'. Think how much time was wasted talking about Mario Cuomo running for President.

I know what I'm proposing will be called censorship by some and this isn't my blog but a little self-discipline and leading by example from the major netroots blogs just MIGHT keep the ugliness to a dull roar - at least until Labor Day '07.

Am I crazy to think keeping the '08 Presidential discussions to the weekends for a few months could be a productive step?

by joejoejoe 2006-12-06 08:01AM | 0 recs
My beef with Obama

...is that he said the day after the '04 election that he would definitely not run in 2008. If he flip-flops on that question, what else would he flip on?

by dwbh 2006-12-06 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: My beef with Obama

Lame.

by mhoffa1382 2006-12-06 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: My beef with Obama

Yeah, I'm even a big Edwards supporter and find that line of reasoning, lame too.  

by ira13ping 2006-12-06 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: My beef with Obama

So you won't support Gore then if he runs.  I am pretty sure at the time, Obama had no intention of running in 2008.

But they are right... that was lame.

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

On the kos straw poll I had a strong suspicion that Edwards, Obama, and Clark would be the strongest without Fiengold or Gore in the mix.  Honestly I would gladly support any of the 3.  I still have doubts about Clark's ability to run a good campagin, but we'll have to see how much he's learned in the last few years.  If any of these three emerge the winner though we'll have a much stronger candidate than we would with Hillary.

by blueryan 2006-12-06 08:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I am still amazed that people are still under the impression that Edwards did better than Clark in '04.  Its just simply not true.

"After the Iowa caucuses, which Clark chose not to compete in, the four main Democratic candidates -- Kerry, Dean, Clark, and Edwards -- met in eight primaries. Kerry won six and effectively wrapped up the nomination in the first week of February 2004. But taking a closer look, Clark did pretty well, particularly if you compare him to Edwards.

In those eight primaries, Clark finished ahead of Edwards in five (AZ, NH, NM, ND, and OK), while Edwards bettered Clark is just three of the eight (DE, MO, and SC). If you include Iowa, Clark still outperformed Edwards in five of the first nine contests."

http://www.thecarpetbaggerreport.com/arc hives/9242.html#more-9242

by JAmbro 2006-12-06 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I was referring to all the mistakes he made on the campaign trail, not the amount of votes he got.  

by blueryan 2006-12-06 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

Hands down his biggest was not getting in earlier.  Had he got in early 2003, he would have won the nomination, I am convinced.  

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

In '04 the IL Primary didn't matter much but I had narrowed it down to Clark and Edwards so I tossed a coin and picked one even though Kerry had it settled well before then.

But I can't help but think its Edwards this time around.  Any combination of Clark/Edwards in '04 would have been a winner but in '08 I believe that Edwards has hit on all the right topics including poverty and his reversal on the war.

If the Democrats could forge a "New South" ticket similar to Clinton-Gore in 1992 with Edwards at the helm it might just bring enough Southern and Midwestern support to flip several swing states.  There's a huge reservoir to draw from in potential Southern VP candidates that of course include Clark, Sam Nunn, and Bob Graham if you're looking for foreign policy experience.  

by jarod 2006-12-06 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

Wes Clark was not on the Ballot in Illinois during the primary.  He had been taken out at that point.  I know this for fact as I was going to vote for him regardless of Kerry being the nom, and voted for Edwards instead as a protest vote because Clark was gone.  

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

We don't need the south to win... Forget a NEW SOUTH ticket... We need to work the midwest and the west as a party as our future gains are much more likely in those areas than the south, where the GOP is a regional powerhouse... a New South ticket probably gains us nothing and leads to the possibility of our candidate losing his home state (much like Gore)... I doubt Edwards can win North Carolina in the Nationals, but it is possible... I would say more likely is Clark winning Arkansas.  

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I think the region a candidate is from is still important.  Southern candidates tend to do well in the Midwest.  A true Midwestern ticket would be Bayh and Vilsack.  A Western ticket would include Bill Richardson.  Regardless an Edwards/Clark ticket porbably would carry Arkansas and possibly put North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia in contention.  I think for Florida to be in play Bill Nelson or Bob Graham would have to be on the ticket and work there home state hard but I imagine it would be an uphill battle.

by jarod 2006-12-06 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I voted for Obama on potential alone. On merit, I would vote for Richardson- they guy is a progressive governor w/ national security experience. But I think Obama has the chance to be a uniquley great president. If you read his books and speeches, I don't know how you can conclude otherwise.

by mhoffa1382 2006-12-06 08:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

I went for Edwards right now, but I'm open to a couple more candidates, but definitely NOT to most on that list...

by Andros 2006-12-06 08:34AM | 0 recs
Approval voting

We get the same results at Soapblox/Chicago except Richardson does a lot better. Richardson has much stronger support than  is showing on the dKos poll because of the single vote nature and strategic voting.

Here's our approval vote results:


Presidential Straw Poll (MyDD Candidates) Pick all you approve of:
  • Al Gore - 23 votes (22.55%)
  • Barack Obama - 18 votes (17.65%)
  • John Edwards - 17 votes (16.67%)
  • Bill Richardson - 10 votes (9.8%)
  • Wes Clark - 8 votes (7.84%)
  • None of the above - 7 votes (6.86%)
  • Tom Vilsack - 4 votes (3.92%)
  • Evan Bayh - 4 votes (3.92%)
  • Tom Daschle - 4 votes (3.92%)
  • Hillary Clinton - 2 votes (1.96%)
  • Joe Biden - 2 votes (1.96%)
  • Mike Gravel - 1 votes (0.98%)
  • Chris Dodd - 1 votes (0.98%)
  • John Kerry - 1 votes (0.98%)

Total votes: 102

Admittedly the results are thin because of the small number of voters (maybe 25-30 tops) but the voting method (approaval) has been very good at teasing out general support that is similar to larger polls, including IRV ones.

by Jeff Wegerson 2006-12-06 08:43AM | 0 recs
P.S. Re: Approval voting

I would love to see MyDD do an approval voting poll. I nagged Kos for a long time to no avail. (Rusty has the code available.)

I think the results would be very, very interesting.

by Jeff Wegerson 2006-12-06 08:48AM | 0 recs
P.P.S. It.s 1:50 Eastern time.

Does your server know that. Or does daylight savings time go longer there in Philly.

by Jeff Wegerson 2006-12-06 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Approval voting

I'd be interested to see the results without Gore.  I am curious where his votes would go.

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 10:56AM | 0 recs
mydd 2008 "not a cattle call"

this is a bit late to the party, i know, but I wanted to chime in a thought about the mydd 2008 predictions.  you should include number of contributions on actblue as a metric of a candidate's popularity.  hopefully that will incentivize grassroots supporters to "stuff the ballots" in a way that actually helps us win.

by Shai Sachs 2006-12-06 08:44AM | 0 recs
TX-23

DavidNYC over at Swing State Project had a diary up about the TX-23 SUSA poll and someone commented about the numbers not adding up.

I think that most people seperate demographics out into White, Black, and Hispanic.

However, the way that the Census Bureau surveys for race doesn't exclude those claiming hispanic heritage from claiming white race.  And most Hispanics check off white as their race.

So I think that there maybe some overlap depending on the methodology used.

by ManfromMiddletown 2006-12-06 09:14AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-23

You might be referring to this.  Essentially, SUSA looked up the wrong number.  The key point is that Matt, SUSA, etc. are wrong in saying, "Right now, Latinos are forecasted to be 36% of the electorate. The census shows the population of the district to be 55% of the electorate."

The district is 65% Hispanic.

by blank 2006-12-06 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: TX-23

No, that is another issue. But that point is important.

In Indiana when we redistricted in 2001 we had block level numbers for race.  Those have to be adjusted to reflect the census tracts and blocks in the new district

The issue I'm talking about is that the Census doesn't use the White/Black/Hispanic coding.

They have seperate race and hispanic origin codings.  So you can be simulatenously white/black and hispanic.

by ManfromMiddletown 2006-12-06 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

The obama supporters (of which I am one) who have bashed you are being political fanboys.  Your criticism is constructive... others on here just seem vindictive at times... Calling someone an empty suit vs asking how they can better serve people are two WAY different sentiment... your comments tend to go toward the latter, which I respect greatly.  I always thought Stollers ran toward the former, but as of late he is being constructive, which I respect.  There are definately faults with Obama, I am a big fan and would never argue that their aren't.  My issue has always been the way peopel have expressed what they feel those faults are... some go after him like he is BUSH for god's sake... and I think everyone of us on here would definately prefer President Obama to Bush, Cheney, or McCain.  

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

It's the disappointment. I wouldn't call it not living up to the hype, because I think he could live up to the hype if he wanted to. It's just that I'm seriously concerned about the crowds he's hanging out with, the people he's getting advice from, and the appearance that he's playing it safe. He could be our Reagan, I honestly believe it. I'm just not seeing it.

by pluto101 2006-12-06 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday Afternoon Thread

And that to me is constructive and valid criticism.

by yitbos96bb 2006-12-06 01:02PM | 0 recs

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