A Quick Review of The Situation In The House
by Chris Bowers, Tue Nov 07, 2006 at 11:50:31 AM EST
- The final seven generic ballot polls, all conducted entirely in November, show a mean double-digit lead for Democrats among both likely voters and registered voters.
- The final, independent polls in individual districts show Democrats ahead in 239 seats, Republicans ahead in 195, and one tied. Further, Democrats are within single-digits in 23 of the seats that Republicans are projected as winning.
- The combined forecasts of the major professional prognosticators show 43 Republican held seats as either toss-up, or favored to flip to Democrats.
- Republican insiders think the following: Here's information from a chart that GOP insiders are using as a cheat sheet:
Eight in the most likely gone category: PA-7, Weldon, OH-18, Ney open, IN-8, Hostettler, CO-7 Beauprez open, AZ-8, Kolbe open, NY-24, Boehlert open, PA-10, Sherwood, CT-4, Shays.
Eight in the expect to lose most of these unless something changes: TX-22, DeLay open, NC-11, Taylor (chart notes unfavorable trend in this race), IN-9, Sodrel, IN-2, Chocola (chart notes a favorable trend), FL-16, Foley open, OH-15, Pryce, PA-6, Gerlach, NH-2, Bass (unfavorable trend).
Twenty in the true toss-up category (I'm just citing districts because I'm tired of typing): IA-1, NY-20, WY, WI-8 (favorable trend), WA-8, VA-2, PA-8, NY-26 (favorable trend), NM-1, IL-6, FL-13, CA-50, CA-11, OH-1, ID-1, NY-25, MN-1, CO-5, OH-2, CA-4.
That's 36 seats total. In the first category, unfavorable trends are noted in 7 of the 8 races (AZ-8 is the only exception). In the third category, 13 out of the 30 races have unfavorable trends.