Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

On December 31, I offered these predictions about the year to come:

  1. Democrats will gain control of the U.S. House, albeit by a somewhat narrow margin. The Democrats will have a tougher go in the Senate, where the Republicans' share of seats will be trimmed to 51 or 52. In gubernatorial contests, the Democrats will pick up seats in some of the most Democratic states in the country -- California, New York, Maryland, and Massachusetts, for example -- as well as in more competitive states like Ohio.
  2. At least one more Republican member of Congress will be indicted.
  3. Despite attempts to squelch the media by the Bush administration (or perhaps as a result of them), major media outlets will continue to unearth stories that are politically painful to the White House -- with help from inside the bureaucracy. Nevertheless, the media will also continue to peddle the incorrect meme that the Democratic Party is devoid of ideas (in the interest of "balance," of course).
  4. The situation in Iraq will not noticeably improve.
  5. The economy will strengthen, but President Bush's approval will not significantly rise.
  6. The Republican agenda in Washington will continue to be stalled as Republican members of the House from marginal districts defect on major pieces of legislation and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, distracted by the ongoing SEC investigation into his stock sales, is still unable to effectively control the chamber.

I'm still generally comfortable with my electoral predictions contained under (1), though today I am a bit more optimistic about Democatic chances than I was ten months ago. Looking at the House, I see the Democrats picking up closer to 30-35 seats (32 is the number I'm settling on today) rather than the 15-20 range I forsaw late last year. In terms of the Senate, I see the Democrats picking up six seats rather than the 3-4 I estimated in December, leading to Democratic control rather than Republican control. And on governorships, I still see Democrats picking up New York, Maryland, Massachusetts and Ohio -- as well as Colorado, Minnesota and Arkansas -- though not picking up California. Taken with my sentiment that the Democrats will not lose a single governorship, I forsee the party netting seven new governor mansions (this number is still a bit in flux and could actually increase).

(Below the fold: examining my other predictions and finding out what you think will happen on Tuesday.)

On (2), which was admittedly a rather unambitious prediction, Bob Ney was indeed indicted during 2006.

On (3), several media reports -- from Dubai Ports World deal to Bob Woodward's "State of Denial" -- have indeed exposed rather embarassing malfeasance from within the Bush administration.

(4) is a prediction that I wish had been proved wrong but unfortunately has not. The situation in Iraq has certainly not improved. In fact, it has worsened greatly, particularly in the last month and a half.

On (5), some areas of the economy have strengthened, most notably the stock market, but the wealth created during the Bush administration has not trickled down but rather flowed up, leaving hard working Americans in a state of greater debt and financial insecurity than at just about any other point in my lifetime.

(6) has thankfully proven true as Republicans have been impressively unimpressive at passing legislation, from immigration reform to Social Security privatization to meaningful deficit reduction.

So those are my predictions for 2006 and November 7, specifically. What are your predictions for election day?

Tags: predictions (all tags)



2006 Predictions

I'll be thrilled if this election proves that political polling is a crock.  I'm tired of these inconsistent and wildly varying polls.

by global yokel 2006-11-03 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

don't forget the torture bill. . .

by drlimerick 2006-11-03 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

I'm starting to see the dots connect here...

My predictions...

Dems win upwards of 30 seats in the house.

Dems win at least 6 senate seats and take control of the senate (with the chance for a 7th seat win and even an 8th.  Yeah, I said it)

Dems gain governors in NY, OH, MA, MD, AR, CO, and MN.  Expect an upset win in AK, ID or FL.  One of them will come to us.

by beeswax49 2006-11-03 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

California has several, but they aren't good enough for Arnold.  He stays at a suite at the non-union Hyatt across the street from the capitol.  He drives to work, literally from one garage to another crossing a street.

by juls 2006-11-03 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

But I think he has converted his Hummer to burn propane. It is California after all...

by JohnMac 2006-11-03 04:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

Sorry, it was converted to on Hydrogen.

by JohnMac 2006-11-03 04:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

404, got a link that works?

by Sean Robertson 2006-11-04 09:34AM | 0 recs

7 in the senate.
40 in the house.
7 gov pickups
4 state house pickups
Majority of SOS and State AG positions.

No house or senate losses.  

Why so optimisitic?  The election truly has been nationalized.  The magnifying effect of momentum and success is on the Dem side.  Dem volunteers are going to be more numerous and energetic.  These republicans have never really had to play defence before and frankly they're proving they suck badly at it.

by scientician 2006-11-03 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

I don't know about the governorship of Minnesota anymore. Hatch and Detcher have combined to give themselves some very poor headlines this week. There seems to be a curse on the local MN Dems, and I can only hope that this week doesn't sway anyone who was supporting Hatch softly.

by Mullibok 2006-11-03 02:36PM | 0 recs
Prediction for election day?

It'll be long. I'll drink lots of coffee. I'll be pumped up on adrenaline and coffee all day. I'll be real tired when the polls close at 9:00 PM but won't notice it. Then it'll be off to count totals, enjoy parties and be happy and exhausted all the way into Wednesday. At the end of the day I'll be a very tired, happy camper.

That's my prediction for election day.

by Andrew C White 2006-11-03 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Prediction for election day?

My kids' preschool has an art exhibit that evening! As a parent you can't not go, but I'm thinking you couldn't have waited one more day?

by The Professor 2006-11-03 08:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

This is going to be long.

I never thought we had any kind of shot at the Senate until last month, but now it's almost 50-50 because of Allen's brutal campaign in VA.

PA: Casey beats Santorum by 12
OH: Brown beats DeWine by 9
RI: Whitehouse beats Chafee by 5
MT: Tester beats Burns by 3
VA: Webb beats Allen by 3
MO: McCaskill beats Talent by 1
TN: Corker beats Ford by 1
AZ: Kyl beats Pederson by 4

Dem defenses

MD: Cardin beats Steele by 5
NJ: Menendez beats Kean by 10

No Lieberman-proof Senate, but Allen really screwed the pooch for the Repubs.


NY: Spitzer beats Faso by 50
OH: Strickland beats Blackwell by 25
MA: Patrick beats Healey by 20
CO: Ritter over Beauprez by 14
AR: Beebe over Hutchinson by 9
MD: O'Malley over Ehrlich by 4
MN: Hatch over Pawlenty by 2
RI: Fogarty over Carcieri by 2 (upset special)
NV: Titus over Gibbons by less than 1
AK: Palin over Knowles by 2
ID: Otter over Brady by 5
FL: Crist over Davis by 5
TX: Perry over Bell by 7, forget about Grandma and Kinky
CA: Arnold over Angelides by 10
VT: Douglas over Parker by 12
SC: Sanford over Moore by 12
GA: Perdue over Taylor by 14, Perdue gets to 50%

Dem defenses...we don't lose one.

IA: Culver over Nussle by 2
MI: Granholm over DeVos by 4
WI: Doyle over Green by 6
OR: Kulongoski over Saxton by 6
IL: Blago over Topinka by 7, Green candidate gets 13%
ME: Baldacci over Woodcock by 11
KS: Sebelius over Barnett by 17
PA: Rendell over Swann by 28

by dpinzow 2006-11-03 03:05PM | 0 recs
Culver will win IA by 5

And Dems will take control of the IA House and Senate.

In the US House, we gain 24 seats, and we gain 5 in the Senate. (I so want to believe MO and AZ are within reach, but I think we will fall just short in both places.) TN will be a disappointment like OK was in 2004.

We pick up 7 governorships and lose none.

by desmoinesdem 2006-11-03 05:17PM | 0 recs
screwing the pooch

I could have thought that screwing the pooch was Santorum's job.

by The Professor 2006-11-03 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: screwing the pooch

He certainly seems unnaturally interested in such things. :-D

by Sean Robertson 2006-11-04 09:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions
Those predictions are insanely good for how long ago they were made. Anyway i'll predict House gains of 25ish and a Senate gain of 6 (PA, OH, RI, MT, VA, MO). I haven't been following the governor races closely enough to predict those, but I will say I don't think a single seat currently held by a Dem will be lost in any of the races in 06.
by blueryan 2006-11-03 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions

I predict 33 house seat pickups. I like this number because one, it now seems quite reasonable, two, it just feels right, and three, it would put the GOP at 199 seats.

And psychologically, I think that knocking them under 200 will further hurt their morale in a way that will make them that much less of a time and effort-wasting obstruction to Dems as they seek to do the various things that they clearly need to do in the next congress.

The more seats the GOP loses, the easier it will be for us to pass legislation and conduct useful hearings, and the less of a viable obstruction will the GOP be able to put up from not only a political and numerical perspective, but from an emotional one as well.

We need to not only beat them, but CRUSH them.

by kovie 2006-11-03 06:52PM | 0 recs
Rassmussen says it's down to two Senate seats

Today's (11/4)Rasmussen reports says it's down to two seats: Virginia and Missouri. ateBalanceofPower.htm

If Dems take those two we're in. Rasmussen has been pretty right on in their polling for the most part.

by cmpnwtr 2006-11-04 05:44AM | 0 recs


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