Reviewing, Rethinking My 2006 Predictions
by Jonathan Singer, Fri Nov 03, 2006 at 01:34:35 PM EST
On December 31, I offered these predictions about the year to come:
- Democrats will gain control of the U.S. House, albeit by a somewhat narrow margin. The Democrats will have a tougher go in the Senate, where the Republicans' share of seats will be trimmed to 51 or 52. In gubernatorial contests, the Democrats will pick up seats in some of the most Democratic states in the country -- California, New York, Maryland, and Massachusetts, for example -- as well as in more competitive states like Ohio.
- At least one more Republican member of Congress will be indicted.
- Despite attempts to squelch the media by the Bush administration (or perhaps as a result of them), major media outlets will continue to unearth stories that are politically painful to the White House -- with help from inside the bureaucracy. Nevertheless, the media will also continue to peddle the incorrect meme that the Democratic Party is devoid of ideas (in the interest of "balance," of course).
- The situation in Iraq will not noticeably improve.
- The economy will strengthen, but President Bush's approval will not significantly rise.
- The Republican agenda in Washington will continue to be stalled as Republican members of the House from marginal districts defect on major pieces of legislation and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, distracted by the ongoing SEC investigation into his stock sales, is still unable to effectively control the chamber.
I'm still generally comfortable with my electoral predictions contained under (1), though today I am a bit more optimistic about Democatic chances than I was ten months ago. Looking at the House, I see the Democrats picking up closer to 30-35 seats (32 is the number I'm settling on today) rather than the 15-20 range I forsaw late last year. In terms of the Senate, I see the Democrats picking up six seats rather than the 3-4 I estimated in December, leading to Democratic control rather than Republican control. And on governorships, I still see Democrats picking up New York, Maryland, Massachusetts and Ohio -- as well as Colorado, Minnesota and Arkansas -- though not picking up California. Taken with my sentiment that the Democrats will not lose a single governorship, I forsee the party netting seven new governor mansions (this number is still a bit in flux and could actually increase).
(Below the fold: examining my other predictions and finding out what you think will happen on Tuesday.)
On (2), which was admittedly a rather unambitious prediction, Bob Ney was indeed indicted during 2006.
On (3), several media reports -- from Dubai Ports World deal to Bob Woodward's "State of Denial" -- have indeed exposed rather embarassing malfeasance from within the Bush administration.
(4) is a prediction that I wish had been proved wrong but unfortunately has not. The situation in Iraq has certainly not improved. In fact, it has worsened greatly, particularly in the last month and a half.
On (5), some areas of the economy have strengthened, most notably the stock market, but the wealth created during the Bush administration has not trickled down but rather flowed up, leaving hard working Americans in a state of greater debt and financial insecurity than at just about any other point in my lifetime.
(6) has thankfully proven true as Republicans have been impressively unimpressive at passing legislation, from immigration reform to Social Security privatization to meaningful deficit reduction.
So those are my predictions for 2006 and November 7, specifically. What are your predictions for election day?