Wednesday 2008 Thread

Because the Iowa caucuses are less than fourteen months away.
  • Bill Frist will not run for President. Damn. I had always hoped he would win the Republican nomination. Considering that he had been running for almost a year now, this smacks of Republican-style field clearing for the likes of McCain (the field basically self-cleared for Bush in 2000, and Dole in 1996). Then again, it could also be that he realized his own base never really liked him before Republicans lost the Senate, and probably despises him now.

  • As Jonathan wrote earlier today, it certainly looks like Romney is going to run. Now I hope that either he or New Gingrich wins the Republican nomination.

  • I should have the breakdown on the straw poll by tomorrow afternoon. Once I have the breakdown, I can compile the results before stuffing occurred, and get basically clean numbers. While I don't think it was too bad, there might have been some Edwards stuffing (there has been in the past). I also think that there was stuffing for a large number of the candidates who received 4% or less. For example, at one point Dodd had only 4 votes, and every other candidate had at least 21 votes. Now he is suddenly at 31 votes, and the others haven't gone up much? Seems unlikely to me. Not to mention that Daschle and Vilsack have never done even close to this well, ever. Someone may have been stuffing the poll on behalf of all the minnows to make the leader, Al Gore, or the four frontrunners, Gore, Obama, Clark and Edwards, all have a lower percentage of the total. If that is what happened, that is actually a clever but of stuffing. I'll be able to find out when I get the poll internals.

  • Speaking of Gore, he seems to be strongly leaning against running, but clearly has not ruled it out:So if you decide to run, do you think we would see the Al Gore from the movie? Or the Al Gore from 2000?
    Well, I don't plan to run. I don't plan to run. And I don't expect to run.

    How many times a day does somebody ask you this?
    Well, I'm doing a lot of interviews and it's on the list of questions. For every one of them. And I appreciate that. I appreciate that people think enough of me still in that world to ask that question. It's true that I haven't, uh, gotten to the point where I am willing to completely rule it out for all time. But, that is really more a matter of the internal shifting of gears. I'm not making plans to run again.

    But you're not ruling it out?
    Uh... no. [smiles] The real bombshell in this interview is that there will be a Futurama movie. Yes!

  • It certainly looks like Dodd is going to run. One advantage for Dodd appears to be that he and Howard Dean share a neck.

  • Republicans complain about the media costing them elections. However, they have free reign to call Barack Obama "Hussein" without any repercussions, while if a Democrat misreads one word from a prepared speech, it is a week long national news story. We are really dealing with a bunch of bullies and whiners who have an over-developed sense of entitlement and who refuse to blame themselves for anything. For Obama's part, he is wading so deep in the Presidential waters, that at this point he is going to have to start rolling up his pant cuffs.

  • For dozens of stories on the 2008 election every day, check out the MyDD E-Wire 2008.
This is a thread on 2008.

Tags: Al Gore, Barack Obama, Bill Frist, Chris Dodd, Culture, Media, Mitt Romney, President 2008, Primary Elections, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

we need a full-court press against McCain

It will be critical for Democrats to resist the temptation to build McCain up and seek media approval for cooperating with McCain.

We need to work hard to take down this guy's image.

by desmoinesdem 2006-11-29 07:43AM | 0 recs
Just say what McCain stands for, like LA Times did

People's opinions of him will change considerably if they know what his stands are.

I'm glad to see Gore's not ruled out running.  And I see several sites turn up in a Googling of "Draft Gore."

by RT 2006-11-29 07:56AM | 0 recs
WE should start google-bombing McCain now

The earlier the better.  We, IMO, shoudl concentrate on FIVE things about McCain on the googlebomb project:

1.  His views on Iraq (MORE troops)

2.  His views on gays and choice (this is a biggie, as people think he's a moderate)

3.  His role in the Keating-Five scandal (yeah, old news, but fits into a narrative that the guy ain't the squeaky clean second coming people think he is).

4.  His age and health.

5.  His radical embrace of job killing trade deals (this was a big issue with Webb and Tester, and some say it's only growing in importance as an issue and perhaps may be a number 1 issue in 2008).

If we start now in earnest, whenever anyone looks up King john McCain, they'll see the truth, not some fawning, sycophantic article by the contemporary mainstream media.  It is very surprising the influence of google and other search engines for voters to try and get REAL info on a candidate.  especially workign women.  they often do internet research on candidates to determine their vote.

by jgarcia 2006-11-29 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: WE should start google-bombing McCain now

Btw, I suggest googlebombing John McCain because I believe he is the single greatest threat the GOP has of winning in 2008.  And, IMO, the only one who actually can beat any one that we nominate.

If we marginalize McCain, we got it!!!

by jgarcia 2006-11-29 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: WE should start google-bombing McCain now

oh, one more thing:  perhaps the google-bombing can start now, so that we can drown-out his official announcement before all the fanfare.

by jgarcia 2006-11-29 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

He knew he wasn't going to win, so he stepped aside, clearly the GOP is looking for someone outside the south, the past election showed that the GOP is anchored too much in the south.

by olawakandi 2006-11-29 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

Considering Frist had so meticulously planned out his run for President (his rise/coup to Senate majority leader, his announcement right after '04 that he wouldnt seek re-election basically to start running early), it surprises me that Frist isnt running. I know he had a horrible political year, and that nobody likes him, but this must be a real big blow considering how long he's, in essence, been running. I mean this guy's ego is so big that he built a new house in Nashville thats almost an exact replica of the white house!

by AC4508 2006-11-29 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

IIRC, in Conservatives Without Conscience, John Dean remarks that Frist honestly believes that he was born to be President.  It must hurt when reality comes crashing down on you.

by JJCPA 2006-11-29 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

He's young enough to wait isn't he? He could sit out and challenge the (likely) Dem president in 2012.

by Gpack3 2006-11-29 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

According to the exit polls this year, only something like 39% of Tennesseeans thought Frist would make a good President (compared with about 45% who thought he wouldn't.)

by Tom 2006-11-29 08:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

Futurama movie!?  

Awesome.

by fbihop 2006-11-29 07:54AM | 0 recs
Straw Poll Raw Data

Can you post the straw poll raw data like you did last time? I'd also like to run the numbers on it.

by bolson 2006-11-29 07:56AM | 0 recs
I second that request.

Also, it would be useful to plot the tally for each candidate against the total vote count (with plots superimposed). Then, trends can be seen (and stuffing could be sensed from visual inspection). I have a few snapshots of the poll that I can plot from, but plotting the full data would be better.

by NuevoLiberal 2006-11-29 11:03AM | 0 recs
Please move donation link to LA runoff to top

Glad you're awake again!!Please move donation link to LA runoff to top and the TX one....also can you call it Louisiana..my wife says we can't give money to Los Angeles Libs(LA) as they can get there own...LOL...you all have done a great job but how about a victory lap?? Maybe a summary thread of people who need money still like the dude in NC(Kessler?) and the dudette in FLA(Buchanon?)...Blah Blah blah

by bostonbilly 2006-11-29 08:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

If Dean shares a neck with anyone, the other person has been enjoying its exclusive use for quite a while.

by Steve M 2006-11-29 08:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

Dodd has been in South Carolina a lot over the last few months.  Probably the only Prez hopeful who's been here more is Biden.

by Laurin from SC 2006-11-29 08:18AM | 0 recs
Gore

That is the first time I have seen Gore answer it like that. That would seem to be leaving the door open just a little more than he normally does.

by robliberal 2006-11-29 08:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Gore

I say Gore/Obama in '08!

by AC4508 2006-11-29 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Gore

There's a Draft Gore fund up and running over at actblue.

If you can (I can't until the new year), drop in some coin.  Can't hurt to encourage him, and if he doesn't run, the money goes to Howard Dean and the DNC.

http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraiser s/12507

by JJCPA 2006-11-29 08:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Gore

At this point, the only candidate I can get excited about. As long as its the current incarnation...

by LiberalFromPA 2006-11-29 09:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

For what its worth the straw poll came & went before the Clarkies got around to stuffing, there was nothing about it on any of the Clark yahoo groups.

by howardpark 2006-11-29 08:45AM | 0 recs
Interesting Bayh numbers

In the first Round, Bayh has 82 votes and is in 7th place.  

By the ninth round, Bayh is in fifth place with 193 votes.  This makes quite a bit of sense, as a lot of the Daschle, Vilsack, Biden voters no doubt see Bayh as a natural second choice.  

Also in the ninth round, Kerry has only 149 votes and is eliminated.  In the tenth round, with Kerry's votes redistributed, Bayh is all of a sudden at 333!  That means that 140 of the 149 Kerry voters prefer Bayh to Clark, Obama, Edwards, and Gore.  Which seems unlikely.

In the 11th round, Bayh has the lowest total, with 340 votes.  "None of these," which has been slowly gaining votes every round, stands at 54.  After Bayh's elimination and the distribution of his votes, "None of these" has 326.  That means that 272 of Bayh's 340 supporters had no preference among the top candidates of Obama, Gore, and Edwards.

It's all a little fishy to me.

by kilb 2006-11-29 08:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Interesting Bayh numbers
Good catch. Bayh supporters were stuffing for Kerry. I am starting to get really annoyed with Bayh supporters. They do shit like this and then send me tons of emails claiming they didn't do anything.
by Chris Bowers 2006-11-29 09:06AM | 0 recs
Another stuffing view

Feingold had huge numbers in these sorts of polls before, and since his dropout I imagine a lot of people don't have a strong preference. This could explain some of the random support for otherwise unpopular candidates.

I think polls are not terribly informative at this point, partly because of stuffing (which I doubt is as big a problem as mentioned) and partly because of an extreme lack of information about most of these candidates. I personally haven't been excited about any of them since Feingold dropped out. But it's still early.

by sxp151 2006-11-29 10:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread

What Dodd? The guy who did next to nothing to stop Lieberman?

by MNPundit 2006-11-29 10:23AM | 0 recs
Edwards/Dean '08

They wouldn't ever have to talk about the opposition (if they didn't want to). They'd have so many volunteers and small dollars. I just think they'd steamroll absolutely any Republican combination, even McCain/Lieberman.

As for the merits of the two: John Edwards would shift the debate solidly to working America vs. corporate America. He would provide, by far, the biggest progressive shift in the political debate in decades. People say Obama is similar to Edwards in the JFK-esque way -- may be, but Edwards offers to change the debate long term, not just win the debate now.

And Dean -- He's just a great voice of moral clarity and vision. He'd unite the grassroots and the state parties all over the country. And dammit, he deserves it.

by msnook 2006-11-29 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Wednesday 2008 Thread
Dodd is not our guy.
I'm more interested in Edwards than I was in "04.
by bmelz 2006-11-29 06:06PM | 0 recs

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