Blue Districts Form Backbone of Democratic Future
by Chris Bowers, Thu Nov 02, 2006 at 02:15:03 PM EST
University of New Hampshire poll, 9/24 numbers in parenthesis
Hodes (D): 46% (36%)
Bass (R): 38% (46%)
This is the third poll in a row showing Hodes with the lead. The previous two were Constituent Dynamics, showing Hodes ahead 50-47, and the Becker Institute, showing Hodes ahead 48-39. Keep in mind that Hodes was down 25 points in this race as recently as six weeks ago. He was never supposed to win this. Now, it looks like NH-02 is "Lean Dem."
KY-03 looks very good too. The latest form Survey USA, with the mid-October numbers in parenthesis:
Yarmuth (D): 52% (48%)
Northup (R): 44% (47%)
In September, Survey USA has this race at 50%-44% in favor of Northup. But now Yarmuth is in a position to win. Both KY-03 and NH-02 are districts with a partisan voting index favorable to Democrats. If Democrats take these seats, which is starting to look like a good bet, it will be very hard for Republicans to take them back. It doesn't stop in KY-03 and NH-02. Look at the current polling averages from several more:
- CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 50.2%--42.0% O'Donnell (R)
- NM-01: Madrid (D) 50.6%--43.0% Wilson (R)
- IA-01: Braley (D) 45.8%--40.7% Whalen (R)
- NY-25: Maffei (D) 48.7%--43.7% Walsh (R)
- PA-06: Murphy (D) 48.4%--44.1% Gerlach (R)
- CT-05: Murphy (D) 46.8%--44.0% Johnson (R)
In just the seventeen blue House districts currently held by Republicans, Democrats are poised to make somewhere between seven and sixteen pickups this cycle alone. Hell, we could win enough seats to take back the House in just these districts, and those are all seats Republicans will have a very hard time getting back. Thus, these districts form not only the backbone of our drive to take the House this year, but have the clear potential to serve as the backbone of our majority in future cycles. Further, none of these Democrats will be in a position where they will have to "run from the party" in order to win, meaning that these districts can serve as the backbone of a Democratic and progressive legislative majority.
Karl Rove is supposedly a genius for adopting a polarizing, turn out the base strategy. However, it now looks entire possible that this strategy will blow up in his face. Polarized environments force people to choose sides, and after the 2006 elections there will be only a handful of Republicans left in blue House districts, while dozens of Democrats remain in purple and red districts. Creating a polarizing environment and only talking to the Republican base has resulted in only the Republican base siding with Republicans. The Republican base got exactly what it wanted after the 2004 elections: complete and lavish attention from their party leaders. The result looks like it will be the near-total collapse of Republicans in blue and purple districts.