How Did Your Forecasts Do?
by Chris Bowers, Fri Nov 10, 2006 at 08:28:22 AM EST
- Lean Democratic tier. My projection: 11-13 pickups. Current status: 13-14 pickups. The two that we have narrowly lost in this category, NY-25 and PA-06, are particularly painful to me, since I lived in both districts for a combined nineteen years (I grew up in one, and went to college in the other). I also volunteered for both campaigns this time around, and talked with both candidates who I like very much. Outside of netroots candidates who narrowly lost, those were the two campaigns I would most like to have seen gone the other way. Truly, a bitter taste. It is like seeing the promised land and not being able to walk in it with the rest of your people.
- Toss-up tier: My projection: 11-12 pickups. Current status: 10-15 pickups. With five races still undecided in this tier, I think I did a good job of placing many of the closest races in the country here.
- Lean Republican tier. My projection: 4-5 pickups. Current status: 4-6 pickups. Of all my projections, I was most worried about finding victories in this tier. However, it seems to have come through exactly as my numbers indicated it would.
- Likely republican / others tier: My projection: 0-1 pickups. Current status: 1-2 pickups. The one that is still undecided will be a run-off involving Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23. Ciro was the first candidate I helped raise money for in 2006. That is just strange.
- Toss-up tier: My projection: 1 loss. Current status: 0-1 losses. If we hold GA-12, and I expect we will, we shut out Republicans everywhere. Sweet. I am happy to end up being wrong here, especially IN-07.
- Lean Democratic / others tier: My projection: 1-2 losses. Current status: 0 losses. This actually seems to have been my biggest error of the night. Democratic incumbents performed very well.
In the Senate, every individual seat that I forecasted was correct. My error was in projecting that Democrats would win only three out of four from Maryland, Montana, Virginia and Missouri. We ended up winning all four. I am more than happy to have been wrong about that.
Anyway, enough about me. How did your forecasts do?