Speaker Emanuel?

According to the latest column from The Hotline editor Chuck Todd, a Rahm Emanuel speakership is not only possible, it could come as a result of a grassroots effort spearheaded by the liberal blogosphere.

Scenario II: Democratic momentum stalls a bit, and the party narrowly picks up the House -- but only by a three- to five-seat margin. And the party's gains in the Senate are no more than a net of three seats, keeping the GOP in control.

[...]

But the fascinating storyline in this scenario will be Pelosi's fate. Will, say, 220 House Democrats stay united and elect Pelosi speaker, or will enough conservative House Democrats break and elect a compromise Democrat as speaker? Even the threat of Democrats peeling off and working in collaboration with the Republicans to do so might be enough to encourage a serious challenge to Pelosi inside the Democratic caucus. For some reason Pelosi has a terrible relationship with the liberal blogs. There's a pretty decent chance liberal bloggers could start a grassroots effort to get behind Emanuel for speaker. [emphasis added]

I'm not going delve into the probability that the Democrats will win control of the House but Nancy Pelosi will not be elected leader. It could happen, it could not happen; I just don't have the capacity to gauge the pulse of the House Democratic caucus -- especially not the one in the 110th Congress.

But should this situation play out and House Democrats opt not to back Pelosi as their Speaker, it's difficult for me to envision Emanuel being able to marshall the support for his own bid -- particularly from the Netroots. While Todd is correct that Pelosi is not terribly popular within the progressive blogosphere, polling (albeit non-scientific polling) shows that Emanuel is even less popular. According to the over 5,000 people who participated in the July dKos straw poll, Pelosi's approval rating among the Netroots was 36 percent, with 52 percent disapproving. Emanuel's numbers were noticeably lower, with 30 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving.

Playing out Todd's scenario -- Dems take over the House, but only by a narrow margin -- it's hard to see Emanuel becoming more popular, whether within the Netroots or even the grassroots. The consensus both inside and outside the Beltway is that November 7 presents the Democrats with their best opportunity for gains in the House in as many as 32 years. If, given this great potential, the Democrats are only able to win a bare majority, many will see Emanuel as having underperformed (even if they are at the same time ecstatic at retaking the House). This is particularly the case as a result of longstanding complaints about his strategy, most notably his reluctance to expand the playing field to the degree advocated by many in the Netroots, his propensity to get involved in competitive primaries and his allocation of funds (particularly the large investment in Illinois 6).

And just to make sure that I'm not taking the sentiments of the readers of this site and others for granted and am completely off base, I ask you this: Should the Democrats gain 18 seats, giving them a slim majority in the House, would you support a Pelosi speakership, an Emanuel speakership or the speakership of someone else? (Poll below)

Tags: Chuck Todd, House 2006, rahm emanuel (all tags)

Comments

114 Comments

Re: Speaker Emanuel?

The liberal blogosphere backing Rahm Emmanuel as speaker? Do these people even read blogs?

What a bunch of nitwits.

by PsiFighter37 2006-11-01 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

no - Rahm is not the guy at all... I'd like to see Pelosi hold on to the speakership - she runs a pretty tight ship and has held the Dems together very well.

by OldCoastie 2006-11-01 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Absolutely.  Pelosi is much misunderstood/underrated here, perhaps because she is a woman, perhaps because despite her legislative skills, she is not a good spokesperson.  She should become speaker, but the Dems should either send her for media training pick another person to be spokesperson.

If the Dems win narrowly, it probably means that Rahm's candidate loses in IL-06.  That alone is a defeat for him.  It also means that he was unsuccesful in spreading th field.  So why reward him?  A narrow loss would be more his doing than Pelosi's.  

But then, it ain't gonna happen.  Dems take 28-35 House seats and 6 Senate seats.  Whether it is enough depends on whether Lieberman also wins.  If so, we need 7.  Not impossible.  Many people have made their minds up and I see nothing to change the math, especially after Bush said he'd keep Rumsfeld and Cheney to the bitter end.

Todd is not nearly as ood as CQ or Cook.  He is too superficial and pro-GOP.

by Mimikatz 2006-11-02 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Right on. Speaker Pelosi may not be good on TV, but she will run the House just right. I have complete confidence that she'll make the smart decisions as speaker.

Heck, we're gonna have all those with Presidential ambitions trying to act as spokespeople for the Dems for the next year & 1/2... do we need another one?

by robin oz 2006-11-02 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

One thing  I will say: If we take the House, we're going to have a BIG voice in who gets what, and we'll use it.

I personally don't have a big problem with Pelosi, especially since she gives the righties such heartburn.

But Emmanuel? The netroots?  This must be a trial ballooon by somebody to make sure that Emmanuel doesn't go anywhere in the leadership, because pigs will fly and Bush will withdraw troops from Iraq before the netroots - the folks Emmanuel disparaged on the 50 state strategy - support that guy.

by Mumon 2006-11-01 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Mark my words...

This came from Rahm himself!

The DLC are the most disloyal and disruptive faction within the Democratic Party. Rahm has designs on the Speakership. He will create an intra-party war if necessary.

This man is absolutely out of his mind.

by JackBourassa 2006-11-01 07:35PM | 0 recs
One Step Further

No the comment didn't come from Emmanuel but from Hillary's camp. She wants to have things work this way....she is Senate Majority Leader and Rahm (as her willing sycophant) is Speaker. But the original strategy was counting on this tandem being the minority party...and using the failure in '06 to discredit Dean and emphasize Rahm's good ideas.

Now the problem is Dean looks real vindicated because we have a great outlook at the state and local level and its reinforcing the federal picture. So the Hillarahm chimera has to figure some other hook...and lately it's been to assail Pelosi as some huge, nutjob liberal from San Francisco. Great idea since it's forwarded by a Chicago machine politician and an upstart woman from New York...

Humorously the conservative media has taken the bait...but nevermind the fact that the majority of the commitee assignments are still slated to go to warhorses like Barney Frank and Charlie Rangel.

by risenmessiah 2006-11-01 09:32PM | 0 recs
Agreed that Rahm is behind this

Lynn Sweet just had a puff piece on him in today's Sun-Times.  Here's the ending graf, were Rahm's aspirations are barely disguised:

If the Democrats win, Emanuel will be crowned as the country's master political strategist and tactician. Emanuel would rather be known for his big ideas. This year, Emanuel co-wrote a serious policy book titled The Plan. Emanuel may want a leadership post if the Democrats win. He may not. He will have power either way. He may want to write a new chapter.

Not a single mention of Dean.

This is all very orchestrated.  

I wouldn't be surprised if the last injections of DCCC funds into races included a quid pro quo promise to support Rahm.

by Disputo 2006-11-02 03:00PM | 0 recs
The problem with Pelosi is

that she gives right wingers a "heart burn", and moderates too. We do not want to energize the GOP base because of our speaker's image (rather than his/her political stands).

She is exactly the wrong person to represent the Democratic party. From San Fransisco, weak voice, stereotypically liberal in looks and manners. We need a southern or western populist with strong convictions who never backs down from a fight.

by Populism2008 2006-11-01 11:06PM | 0 recs
Wrong The problem is not Pelosi

We should never shy away from giving Repigs Heartburn in fact we should work to give them Terminal Political Desease! The is nothing wrong with a SAN FRANCISCO Liberal.

by eddieb 2006-11-02 02:35AM | 0 recs
Have you ever listened to Pelosi

Only 2 times I heard her interview--MTP and yesterday w/ Ed Schultz.

Everytime I hear her, my respect for her increases.

Pelosi needs to get long interviewed often--in Air America--not edited clips.

by jasmine 2006-11-02 03:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Have you ever listened to Pelosi

Pelosi is very smart and very tough.  She also can fall back into her "grandmother" persona--every man's nonna.  Not someone you cross. Plus, she is a real liberal.  She deserves better from this crowd.

by Mimikatz 2006-11-02 06:01AM | 0 recs
She's fine

It just weirds me out that any democrat would buy into this SF liberal thing.  That a thrice married Gingrich can launch the values thing against a grandmother married to the same man for forty years just illustrates how pliant the media is.  She has answers for these attacks. I'd like her to be tougher--when they say "San Francisco" they want voters to hear "gay"--but she's from no more liberal a place than Tom Foley or Tip O'Neill.

Her first 100 hours are right on the nose, mainstream policies that will be very popular, legislation that republicans do not want to vote on because of its popularity.  She's reached out to the blogosphere, and listens to us as well.  She's fine.

And Rahm's got some crow to eat.

by jayackroyd 2006-11-02 06:29AM | 0 recs
That darn liberal gender

What a giveaway to the right - we need an overweight, tie-wearing, war-supporting DLC centrist!  Anything else is playing into the hands of the Republicans!  We know how much the electorate hates grandmothers and loves the war in Iraq!

by baked potato 2006-11-02 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Look there is no scenario with a narrow win. If there is a narrow win we are going to lay that at Emanuels feet.

Right now very conservative projects are a 15 seat majority. If we are at less than 15 seats next week there will be serious problems at the DCCC.

The really enthusiastic like RTStrategies are looking at a 240-242 dem seated congress. That's like 50 seats!!

No one is going to forget Rahm or anyone else who worked for this majority. To try to fiat to the speakership is just silly.

After the election we caucus. We talk about it on the blogs, we here the ups and downs of everyone and we make a good decision. That's what the wisdom of crowds is about. It has gotten the dems this far, it will be an aide to them to really do something with their mandate.

by smacfarl 2006-11-01 05:56PM | 0 recs
HELL NO.

   Pelosi should be speaker.  Not self-aggrandizing Emanuel.  For god's sake can we please install an actual leftist in this position for once?!  Pelosi will be a strong leader.  She's already proven herself to be a strong leader.

by cilerder86 2006-11-01 05:57PM | 0 recs
Re: HELL NO.

Can Pelosi get Americans behind her ideas?

I wouldn't think so. She is far too Hillaryesque. A more liberal Hillary from San Fransisco, great...

by Populism2008 2006-11-01 11:08PM | 0 recs
Re: HELL NO.

Americans already ARE behind "her ideas".

If you look at the First 100 hours agenda, these are all popular wedge issues where a majority of the American public is already on the Dems side.

We're getting into concern troll territory here, folks. And is Rahm Emmanual the king of the concern trolls, or what?

by robin oz 2006-11-02 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

That story is insane - did Rahm buy him dinner last night?

Damn straight I'd go with Pelosi, with Murtha as Whip.

by Karatist Preacher 2006-11-01 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

So who would be majority leader then?

by kovie 2006-11-01 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I'm not a big fan of Hoyer, but I'd rather have him get it.  One, he wouldn't try to challenge Pelosi for Speaker and, two, Murtha would be much better at the job of Whip.

by Karatist Preacher 2006-11-02 03:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

My understanding is:
Speaker Pelosi
Majority Leader Hoyer (though Murtha is angling)
Majority Whip Emmanuel

This is new, My understanding is that all this, with the exception of Murtha going for M.L. is already set in stone.

by JJCPA 2006-11-02 04:35AM | 0 recs
He's backing off

I dropped him an email.  His last note said this:

"Again, I'll correct the record in my next column and feel free to share my mistake with your readers regarding my mis-reading of Rahm's relationship with the netroots."

(I didn't mean to leave the impression that I had "readers."  My note referred to Kos and mydd.)

by jayackroyd 2006-11-02 06:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Sure i'd accept an alternate speaker. If Pelosi gets to be the Majority Leader.

Granted, I can't figure out a good candidate to be Speaker. My criteria include (a) could be considered an equal player with Pelosi, (b) someone who is in the middle of the party, idealogy-wise.

I don't think David Price wants the job either.

by RBH 2006-11-01 05:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Then again, under my scenario, the Speaker combines powers of the leader and whip.

In other words, the Speaker and Leader lead things. The Speaker and Whip help to count to 218.

In event of a tie, the Speaker will be the person who scores better on a Parli-Pro quiz.

by RBH 2006-11-01 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

My understanding is that Rahm is going to be Majority Whip in the 110th, assuming all goes well.  

Plus, since when do the netroots like Rahm?  He's done everything in his power to alienate us.

by JJCPA 2006-11-01 05:58PM | 0 recs
Not if the Congressional Black Caucus

has anything to say about it.  They think that Jim Clyburn (D-SC), currently the Caucus Chair, deserves to move up to Majority Whip, and the word is that Nancy is inclined to agree with them.

by lorax 2006-11-01 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Not if the Congressional Black Caucus

Does she need to placate them after kicking jefferson from his ways and means seat?

by scientician 2006-11-01 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Not if the Congressional Black Caucus

Probably.  Especially as Jefferson still hasn't been indicted, even though Bush's 45-day hold on the case expired weeks ago.

by Phoenix Woman 2006-11-01 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Not if the Congressional Black Caucus

Clyburn definitely deserves the nod!

by keenekarl 2006-11-01 07:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Clyburn Definitely Deserves the Nod

To clarify, I meant that Clyburn should get the nod for the House Majority Whip.

by keenekarl 2006-11-01 07:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Pelosi will be Speaker...

Murtha will be Majority Leader...

Rahm will be Party Whip...

I'd be okay with that.

by JackBourassa 2006-11-01 07:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I have commented on this before - but I have serious reservations about Murtha as leader. Aside from the war - on which he has been tough and right - his record is far too conservative.  Wrong on guns, gays, choice, environment.  With a record like that he shouldn't be setting the party's agenda - which is the leader's job.

by jesusquintana 2006-11-02 06:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

No house member, no matter how special or how tight the district is, should EVER get more than three million bucks from the DCCC.  Think about it:  ONE house candidate, Tammy Duckworth, has received more than three mil.

Even if she wins, that's a hell of a lot of money for one fucking seat.  

by jgarcia 2006-11-01 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Pelosi, no question.

by USAagain 2006-11-01 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Agreed.

by The Animal 2006-11-01 07:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Emanuel?  No way.

Nancy Pelosi has enforced party discipline in the House in a way we've not seen in decades.  That's going to be essential, and doubly so if we don't have a lot of votes to spare in our new majority.

I guess I could live with Speaker Murtha, though, if we absolutely had to elect someone other than Pelosi.

by Califlander 2006-11-01 06:04PM | 0 recs
HAW HAW HAW...

What a maroon.

Speaker Murtha, perhaps.

Speaker Waxman? OH YEAH (not that there's achance in hell, but hey, they started the fantasy league!)

Speaker Hoyer? Over our collective dead bodies!

Speaker Kucinich!! I'd support it!

But netroots support for Speaker Emmanuel????

You have GOT to be kidding.

by RedDan 2006-11-01 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: HAW HAW HAW...

Speaker Gore!

Hey, he's eligible for the job.

by RBH 2006-11-01 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: HAW HAW HAW...

Speaker Bill Clinton

he's eligable too.

by scientician 2006-11-01 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: HAW HAW HAW...

It's moron, moron.

by Hoomai29 2006-11-01 07:46PM | 0 recs
Re: HAW HAW HAW...

It's a Bugs Bunny reference, doofus.

by RedDan 2006-11-01 11:18PM | 0 recs
Re: HAW HAW HAW...

I have a soft spot in my heart for the idea of Speaker Frank...

by Nina Katarina 2006-11-02 02:19AM | 0 recs
He's Just Looking For A New Way To Be Insane

It's been a long campaign, and Todd is obviously bored.  There are two options available for Versailles journalists: stupid and insane.  Todd is not stupid.  And he's bored.  So he goes for insane, and writes about what happens after the election.

Once you understand what he's doing, you can stcore him appropriately.  

Remember, "Wildly misrepresenting the liberal blogosphere" is part of the mandatory short form.

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-11-01 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: He's Just Looking For A New Way To Be Insane

I agree with this. As a pundit he wants people to pay attention. So every once in awhile you throw something stupid against the wall, and if it sticks, people think you're a genius.

by Interrobanger 2006-11-02 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

When I read that earlier on the National Journal site, I laoughed out loud.  Yes, Rahm is a part of this, but Pelosi has managed to get the Democratic Caucus voting together 88% of the time, which is higher than it has been for like 50 years.  She deserves the Speakership.  Period.  If it weren't her for whatever, it wouldn't be Rahm either.

by IsThisOverYet 2006-11-01 06:09PM | 0 recs
Pelosi

by HCLiberal 2006-11-01 06:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

The notion that liberal bloggers might mount a campaign on Emmanuel's behalf is bogus.  Must have come from the same source that came up with the equally bogus notion that liberal bloggers were reluctant to see the Democratic Party fund a lot of races in a lot of states.

Methinks this kind of crap comes from people who are seeking to create and dispense the 'conventional wisdom.'  They concoct scenarios that they hope will come true.

by global yokel 2006-11-01 06:14PM | 0 recs
NANCY

She's progressive, she's a woman, and her media skills have dramatically improved.  I don't think anybody seriously thinks that Rahm has a shot has been taking shots.

I want to address the annoying chants of "Speaker Murtha."  Yes, Murtha came out strong on Iraq, and I'm so glad that he did.  But on the majority of other issues that are important to our caucus, he SUCKS!  He's anti-choice, pro-drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge, and he's repeatedly been willing to sell out progressive values for pork barrel projects.  Murtha is in no way qualified to be Speaker, Majority Leader, or Majority Whip when for years he's been serving as an anti-whip helping Republicans win close votes in exchange for pork and campaign cash.

by lorax 2006-11-01 06:16PM | 0 recs
Re: NANCY

Yes, I think it would be terminally stupid for the party that benefits from a gender gap to toss the chance to have the first female Speaker of the House overboard as soon as we take the majority.  We don't know how many swing districts where the possibility of a woman in charge of the House is swinging persuadable female voters to our side.

by Colorado Luis 2006-11-02 03:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I definitely support Pelosi.  Frankly, as long as shes in charge, I'm not going to worry about the Maj. Ldr. or the whip.  Shes not perfect, but shes a heck of a lot better than Mr. Reid in the Senate.

by jallen 2006-11-01 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Jim Clyburn of South Carolina.

He's the Chair of the Democratic Caucus which would put him behind Pelosi and Hoyer in the leadership pecking order. I don't like Pelosi, Hoyer, or Emanuel.

First African-American Speaker. Dig it.

by zt155 2006-11-01 06:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

If they're choosing on those type of considerations, Pelosi would be first woman.  I'd say in a pure electoral math kind of way, that wins.

But really, passing pelosi up at this point would be a huge and costly move for the democrats.  The speakership is hers unless someone can find a solid reason it shouldn't be.

What would the Democrats say about why they picked someone else without it screaming "we caved to republicans, see we're weak even when we're in the majority!"

by scientician 2006-11-01 07:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Past ethics issues, whether legitimate or not, make this highly unlikely, for political reasons.

by kovie 2006-11-01 07:14PM | 0 recs
Note to media

"RedState.com" is not part of the liberal blogosphere (OK... that's a bit harsh - does the DLC have a site?)

I do, however, think Rahm makes the perfect majority whip... the arm twister, our less evil Tom Delay.

by zonk 2006-11-01 06:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Note to media

And why in the fuck would we want a less evil Tom Delay?

by Hoomai29 2006-11-01 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Certainly not rahm.  Nancy's probably the most realistic choice.  But, it's fun to blue-sky some other names though.  Speaker Tammy Baldwin has a nice ring to it.  Speaker Conyers.

by hoose 2006-11-01 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Chuck Todd is not bored, he's a Beltway 500 tool.  Let me further add, fuck Chuck Todd, may he soon rot on assignment covering the rapidly shrinking Greenland Ice Cap that reporters like him helped enable, and tell us how the shilling that he has been doing for the GOP and the DLC earned him this important post.

Those comments are absurd from top to bottom, and amply demonstrates why progressives need to stop listening to or relying on self serving low life scum like Todd and Halpern and Charlie Cook (oh I know, he's so fucking smart, right?) and the rest of their revolting ilk.

18 seat gain is an abject failure by Rahm, that control will be entirely in spite of him, not thanks to him.  What a crock, Crock Todd, Fucktard.  

by DuckmanGR 2006-11-01 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?
I have to admit, there were some times in the past when i've thought pelosi has been too timid.  But this last year i've thought she's been tough, smart and fair.  
And i think it would be a pretty big divergence from the norm to have the minority leader who presides over a return to power not to be given the mantle...  And rahm - r u kidding?  I haven't read a single left of center blog that says ANYTHING good about the man.  What's chuckie smoking?
by DanD 2006-11-01 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Pelosi is too good on message control and cracking the whip.  

by AllenB101 2006-11-01 06:43PM | 0 recs
Nancy is a progressive

Rahm is a DLCer redux.  That's what his book is... warmed over DLC claptrap.  Half of it repeating Republican talking points about Democrats.

And is he such a great strategist?  Who pushed Christine Cegelis out for Tammy Duckworth, whose campaign is now being saved by the DCCC's 3-4 mil ad buy which could easily have expanded the playing field by 6-10 candidates.

The netroots are progressive and we're pragmatic, and Nancy is both.  

This trial balloon is nonsense.  Someone was smoking something with somebody.  Because Rahm would be a step backward to 90's triangulation, coopting Republican policies and using Republican talking points against Democrats.

I had just such an encounter with him at the White House right after Gingrich took over. There was a horrible bill I wanted to bring to his attention because it was a 90's Alien and Sedition ACt.  His response was that the Dems would offer their own version to coopt the Rethugs.  I was stunned... why would any Dem want a Democratic party version of a 90's Alien and SEdition Act?

People like Thomas Riehle in that DLC world are already misrepresenting us when they said the netroots wanted to play it cautious and not expand the Congressional playing field.  No one who understands Rahm's political philosophy versus Nancy's would think he would fulfill the vision the netroots has about American politics.

by debcoop 2006-11-01 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Nancy is a progressive

Could he have suported this rival bill in order to defeat the GOP version, and included enough poison pills to make sure that it wouldn't pass or have teeth if passed?

by kovie 2006-11-01 07:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Nancy is a progressive

No, he didn't say that.  It was a common tactic then to ward off Republican bills by putting forward milder versions of them by Dems.  But this wasn't about something that was easily compromisable like numbers for spending...censorship was/is censorship.

But it's like now...why compromise on making torture a little less awful....we should just hold to our principles and denounce torture for what it so self evidently is---both monstrous and counterproductive.

He's no progressive in his gut...Nancy is.

by debcoop 2006-11-01 07:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Speaker Pelosi with Murtha either Majority Leader of Whip.

by JewishJake 2006-11-01 06:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

error: *or Whip

by JewishJake 2006-11-01 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

We could win 100 seats and the netroots would still say we did it in spite of Rahm, so this theory is obviously way off.

Leading the Democrats is a tough, tough job.  You have to deal with all the factions, the CBC and their issues (how dare you discipline William Jefferson!), the Blue Dogs and their positions on the issues.  It's virtually impossible.  What Pelosi has done to date as far as caucus unity is just amazing.

Not only has she earned the job, but it is IMPOSSIBLE for the Dems to conduct any kind of intra-party fight without lurid details being spewed all over the media.  That's not the kind of soap opera I want to see to kick off a Democratic majority.  So no fights, please.

by Steve M 2006-11-01 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

This makes no sense to me. Perhaps in 6-8 years, Emanual might be up for speaker, but I don't see Pelosi losing it this time around. Especially the whole Emanual-netroots thing, as he is NOT a favorite among them.

I wonder if this doesn't have something to do with the coming Murtha-Hoyer fight over who gets to be majority leader. Isn't Emanual in Hoyer's camp? Could this be a shot across the Pelosi/Murtha bow to help Hoyer out? Sounds like it to me.

by kovie 2006-11-01 07:10PM | 0 recs
Ding Ding Ding!

We have a winnah!

Follow the bouncing Hoyer.

by RedDan 2006-11-01 07:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Hmm...  Well, who's more likely to impeach the Prez and Veep and assume the presidency?  I'll take that one.

by CranesAreFlying 2006-11-01 07:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

No one is likely to do so, until we uncover enough evidence of personal wrongdoing by the Pres that public opinion hits 80% in favour of removal from office and even the Republicans in the senate are on board.

I am not a fan of impeachment unless it has a reasonable chance of hitting the 2/3 needed for conviction in the senate.

To answer directly:  Pelosi pledged not to impeach on 60 minutes a couple weeks ago, saying making Bush a lame duck is good enough, impeachment is a waste of time.

by scientician 2006-11-01 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I had heard she said that.  I think it was an unnecessary statement.  Unfortunately, as you say, the Constitution must be re-ratified by 80% public opinion in order to consider upholding it.

by CranesAreFlying 2006-11-01 08:50PM | 0 recs
Re: impeachment

so we impeach Bush and he's convicted: what happens next?  President Cheney?  No thanks.

by Maven 2006-11-02 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: impeachment

I just think we need a Speaker who's going to let Conyers do his job.  Get some investigations going, get people under oath and see what happens.

Pelosi's statement was unnecessary, and promising this before any investigations have even started kind of kills the Accountability frame we've been pushing.

And I think the idea of impeaching Bush and Cheney, and ending up with a President Pelosi is a rather pleasant one.

by CranesAreFlying 2006-11-02 12:56PM | 0 recs
No way we could pass Pelosi up

If Democrats did this, I can't think of a better way to shout "We're weak and cravenly even when in the majority"

The speakership is rightfully pelosi's at this point.  No one in the caucus has managed to find great reason to unseat her as Minority leader, to do so after she leads them to a majority would be seen as despicable washington cynical politics and would ruin any sheen the democrats might have had with voters.

The house is not the Senate and bi-partisan cooperation is largely unnecessary for any reasonably sized majority.  The Democrats will have no real incentive to placate Republicans with a conservative democratic speaker.  

Finally, tossing a woman under the bus in favour of a white guy would seriously damage the democrats with women.  She's already being touted as the most powerful woman ever in Washington and the first female speaker.  You can't play cock-tease (pun intended) with the electorate like that.

Fucking pop this trial balloon hard.  Far from working for this, the netroots will fight against it and the ensuing divisions and inevitable circular firing squad would ruin the Democratic agenda before it started.

by scientician 2006-11-01 07:17PM | 0 recs
Re: No way we could pass Pelosi up

Great post!  I couldn't agree more!  You made some excellent points, and I don't think that the Dems in the House would be so foolish as to mess up things!

by keenekarl 2006-11-01 07:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Netroots support Murtha for whatever job he wants.  'Nuff said

by jcbhan 2006-11-01 07:21PM | 0 recs
Whether he deserves it or not

and he doesn't

by lorax 2006-11-02 06:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

No way that Rahm Emanuel should become Speaker of the House!  Nancy Pelosi has outlined a great plan for action if the Dems take control, and she will exert great energy and influence to see that it gets carried out!

by keenekarl 2006-11-01 07:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I'm usually not into the idea of making statements of diversity for their own sake, but we've pretty much seen the nadir of what old while males can deliver as Speaker of the US House of Representatives. We owe it to each other as rational people to at least give a woman a shot at the thing, shouldn't we? Not to mention she's actually qualified for the job, let's see what a new dynamic brings us.

She spoke in Portland with the OR delegation (minus Walden of course), and was pretty good. I even got to ask her a question during the official PC part, which was a first. They were on message, but she hits the right notes it seems to me. And you can't argue with her vote counting.

by torridjoe 2006-11-01 07:29PM | 0 recs
Good Thing I Didn't Have Anything In My Mouth

According to the latest column from The Hotline editor Chuck Todd, a Rahm Emanuel speakership is not only possible, it could come as a result of a grassroots effort spearheaded by the liberal blogosphere.

WHAAAA?!?!?

HUH?!?!?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Damn, my sides hurt now.

Someone cut off Chuck Todd's opium supply, OK?  Criminy!

by Phoenix Woman 2006-11-01 07:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel-Are You Nuts?

Rahm Emanuel epitomizes everything that is both right and wrong about Chicago politics and its pay-to-play, bare knuckles rules. If you want an crazy good fund raiser who's the DLC's dream as Speaker of the House then Rahm's your man. However, if you want a tough, compassionate, articulate Chicagoan who actually gets progressive values and isn't just out for personal aggrandizement, then the far better choice for speaker and the far better human would be Jan Schokowsky.

Yeah, Rahmn raised a bunch of bucks, but it was Dean's 50 State Strategy that Rahm fought tooth and nail that has revitalized the Democratic Party and is giving us chances to win in places like Idaho, North Carolina and Eastern Washington where we never expected to have a chance to win this election cycle.

So, while Rahm is to be commended for his bulldog fundraising, he's also the heart of bad-old-politics-as-usual and is no friend of the progressive movement and is no friend of a more honest and transparent United States.

by Hoomai29 2006-11-01 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel-Are You Nuts?

I wrote an email to Chuck Todd asking him where he got the leftie blogger-Rahm Emanuel idea.  He wrote back, because I see it in my inbox.  I wonder what he said.   ;-)

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2006-11-01 08:18PM | 0 recs
Pelosi

Certainly not Rahm.

Chuck either hasn't been reading liberal blogs or he's been smoking. Sure, we've sometimes been critical of Pelosi's TV presence (although she's shaped up significantly in the last year or so). She's also done a good job of "herding the cats." We need a liberal to pull the Dem's back from right of center where they've drifted in pursuit of GOP votes.

Strongly suspect some games are being played here and Chuck is either naive or complicit. Running the idea up the flagpole to gauge response is one possibility. Are the netroots powerful enough at this point that the DLC is checking to see how loudly we scream at the notion of Rahm as Speaker? They may not want to take a chance after the Lieberman fiasco - and the success of the 50 state strategy.

I imagine losing power, especially to a liberal woman, is quite threatening to them. Good grief! If she does a credible job, she might even get uppity and decide to run for president.

by AnOhioVoice 2006-11-01 07:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Probably a little of both.

As for #2, I think we've become very idealistic because we didn't have a voice for so long that we didn't have anything to lose by being very, very progressive, ect. I don't think that's a bad thing at all, but now that our people are finally winning, it's going to take the netroots some time to come to terms with suddenly having power and maybe having to compromise a bit (although we haven't yet and it hasn't gotten us anywhere bad!).

by forecaster15 2006-11-01 07:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Of course there is a difference between compromising on people and compromising on issues.  First you get somebody who really listens to you and then you hold them accountable.  There are more of us and we are better informed than activists in the past have been able to be.  

I think Pelosi is OK.  Word is that she was more effective than we think because she let other Representatives take the credit and didn't hog the mike.  Look at Murtha, for example.  

by prince myshkin 2006-11-01 09:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

hahaha

I usually agree with Chuck Todd's analysis, but this idea that the netroots will support Rahm over Pelosi for Speaker is entirely divorced from reality.  Pelosi has done a great job as Minority Leader, and she'll have my full support to become Speaker.

As for Rahm, I think we would actually do quite well with him as Majority Leader or Majority Whip.  You need someone who can kick ass and not take shit from anyone in those types of positions in order to keep everyone in line, and Rahm certainly fits that criteria.

by Fran for Dean 2006-11-01 08:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

No way would I ever support a Speaker Emanuel.

But you know what, folks: most importantly, this is NOT THE TIME to be talking about this. In a week, sure. Today, let's keep working.

by Oregon Bear 2006-11-01 08:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

If the 110th congress had anybody but Pelosi as speaker I would lose any tiny bits of faith I've started to have in them.

As other's have said already: she's good at keeping her troops together, she has progressive values, she's already leading the dems, ect, ect.

Plus, she'd be the first women speaker. That alone is enough for me. (Only 2nd in line to the presidency!)

by forecaster15 2006-11-01 08:09PM | 0 recs
Give Nance a Chance

When Dems reclaim the House [knocking wood], I want Pelosi to have her shot.  After being The Demon San Francisco Liberal for the last several weeks, she deserves an opportunity to show that evil, Frisco, pinko, pervert-lovers care more about average Americans than do rural Pharma Republicans.

by ChgoSteve 2006-11-01 08:13PM | 0 recs
Pelosi

w/o a doubt

by dblhelix 2006-11-01 08:27PM | 0 recs
Didn't anybody understand the question?

It's not "Who do you want for Speaker?"

It's "If Nancy can't hold the gavel, then who?"

If we gain 15, 16, or 17 it's a nightmare. A couple of turncoats or sellouts or members with personal beefs, and the gavel could be back in Republican hands. Or we could keep the gavel, but lose the ability to carry a close vote.

In this case we might be better off with a Speaker (or candidate for Speaker) other than Pelosi. Things would get ugly and stay ugly.

A gain of 18 is probably the threshold of safety -- on a margin that can evaporate in a literal heartbeat.

The alternative is probably not Rahm -- too many sharp elbows, too much whiplash and backlash..

I discussed the 15-18 scenario briefly with Rep. Pelosi earlier this year, and with another progressive Member earlier today. It's a legitimate big worry. Chances are we'll avoid it, but it is within the range of plausible outcomes.

by RonK Seattle 2006-11-01 08:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

YOU MUST BE JOKING!

Pelosi, hands down as Speaker. End of story. In fact, the mere point that this is being discussed here is quite sad.

No less than $10 million dollars has been misallocated by Rahm Emanuel's ego this cycle. And, if anyone would like to know what the Dems in CA-11, NY-19 (my CD), and NH-01 feel about this, I would think their/our sentiments about Mr. Emanuel fall somewhere between a public lynching and/or disembowelment!

In fact, I won't be donating a CENT to the DCCC until after Emanuel's no longer running the show. (I'm only giving directly to the campaigns, themselves.) Consider this: how about a class action lawsuit for fraudulent representation against the asshole on behalf of everyone who donated money to the DCCC in the primaries in CA-11, NY-19 and NH-01 (perhaps in the general election, too) for blatant misrepresentation?  These are the districts where the primary winner was not Emanuel's handpicked choice. And, NOOONE--and I mean noone--has paid more of a price for this than McNerney, Hall and Shea-Porter this year.

Imagine being a supporter of one of their candidacies in the primary, then donating to the DCCC only to later realize your money went to their opposition?!?!? Why? Because Emanuel's ego overruled the public!

John Hall has not received one red cent from the DCCC this year, and he's going to win in six days; and, you can pretty much guarantee that he's going to be looking to bitch slap the asshole within the first 10 minutes after he arrives on the House floor. Then again, he may have to wait a little longer, because there will probably be a take-a-number queue for that.

How freakin' DARE someone--ANYONE--undermine the will of the voters of their own party in the Primary! And, then, to have the hubris to solicit their money under false pretenses, too!

Oh, and as for Chuck Todd, I know firsthand that the PRIMARY method by which the National Journal ranks their races is almost ENTIRELY based upon following the DCCC/DSCCC money distribution, then ranking based upon that (no matter what they may claim to the contrary).

Three freakin' million in IL-06? Almost the same in CT-05?!?!?!? This has LITTLE to do with any numbers. It's Rahm Emanuel's own (not-so-)little power trip. And, it's everyone else in the Party  that's getting screwed right now!

I don't care whether it's 215, 225, or 250 Dems come next Tuesday. Rahm Emanuel is guilty of GROSS malfeasance, and it's been playing out in front of everyone's eyes for many, many weeks.

As long as that type of behavior continues to be endorsed and tolerated, WE ALL LOSE.

As for me, the thought of looking forward to a public disembowelment of Mr. Emanuel seems pretty damn sweet!

Come to think of it, let's have Dr. Dean lead the crowds with a buck knife while we all watch with glee, too!
 

by bobswern 2006-11-01 08:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Rahm?  As Speaker?  Of, like, the House of Representatives?  Are you crazy?  NO.  I like the job Nancy Pelosi's doing.  

I mean...what the hell? Why even ask that?

by Margot 2006-11-01 09:21PM | 0 recs
So, I Guess You're Saying You're Not Interested

in judging the Insanity Olympics?

by Paul Rosenberg 2006-11-01 09:35PM | 0 recs
Speaker Conyers

Hands down.

OOOoooo, what a blow THAT would be!!!

Never happen, of course, but...y'gotta dream SOME time.

AG

by Arthur Gilroy 2006-11-01 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel? Hell no!

Pelosi has herded these cats better than anyone so far.  And I'm smelling a little sexism here, goddammit.  Bottom line for me:  Pelosi has been there for Charlie Brown and Rahm has not.  

by Linda R 2006-11-01 10:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

First of all, for someone to even discust the possibility of the netroot supporting rahm emmanuel, has to be a fool...The netroot hates rhan because of his beef with howard dean and rhan and a well know rhino DLC in the same cut of joe lieberman...I remember when some reporter asked him about lieberman possiblity to hurt the 3 house seat because he could turn out GOP voters, he dismissed it and said that joe lieberman is a democrat and he will help the down ticket....Its all about israel with those DLC fools and i dont trust them.

If we win 40 seats, i still wouldnt give the credit to rhan, i think the war would be the reason for victory and rahm just happened to be in charge.

Emmanuel can go to hell, as far as im concern and someone needs to tell him to stop drawing plans to unsit pelosi..him and the new democrats are bunches of morons that needs to stay in their place.

by Maria19Rodriguez 2006-11-01 10:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Not quite my point, as I think we have plenty of good people to choose from for all 3 positions, and a bunch of others. I was just pointing out that he commenter mentioned a speaker and a whip but not the majority leader who is between the two in rank.

In any case, I see Pelosi a lock for speaker (NOW will have a FIT if she's not elected, among many others). Majority leader will either be Murtha or Hoyer, and one of them or Emanual will be whip. I don't know enough about the internal dynamics of the Dem caucus to say who else might be in line for other leadership positions, but I'm betting on some of the veterans, at least those w/o chairmanships. Harman looks to be out of the running for intelligence chair, so she might be one. Or maybe Clyburn if his ethics problems prevent his getting the job. But we're not lacking for experienced people to run our new majority.

by kovie 2006-11-01 11:10PM | 0 recs
Please no more Pelosi

Nancy Pelosi is the wrong person to represent the Democratic party in this day and age. From San Fransisco, weak voice, stereotypically liberal in looks and manners. She energizes the GOP base for the wrong reasons (not for her stands but for her persona) and does not play well among moderates.

We need a southern or western populist with strong convictions who never backs down from a fight. A Tester-type. But preferably a woman.

by Populism2008 2006-11-01 11:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

They keep saying she's a San Francisco liberal, but I know the truth.

She's a Baltimore girl, and that scares the crap out of them.

The only way I would support someone else in the Speaker's chair come January 30 would be if Bush & Cheney both dropped dead January 21 and she had to step up to the Presidency.

Mmmm.

by Nina Katarina 2006-11-02 02:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

No Way - Rahm is our "Tom DeLay" bomb waiting to explode.

Definitely Speaker Pelosi-

As to Majority Leader - BARNEY FRANK, I believe is our guy for a host of all the right reasons. Most importantly being that he doesn't have lots of dirty laundry sitting in his closet. In order to move forward where we need to go, we need someone who's past doesn't become the focus of converstation and attacks DuJour in the MSM.

Should the netroots have a conversation and campaign for leadership - ABSOLUTELY

Then WE will have the voice we long for.

by Grandma M 2006-11-02 03:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Rahm -- surprising to me considering how effective he often was at defending Clinton -- has proven to be very weak as a media spokesperson for the party. His MANNER is aggressive, but his arguments aren't. His responses are frequently weak in terms of strategy and logic and his media appearances always make me groan because of one lost opportunity after another. He's not, I've been surprised to observe, too quick on the uptake.

Pelosi, on the other hand, is a sharp, disciplined strategist who is able to formulate strong arguments. But, the strength of her aruments are undermined by the fact that she does not, on the surface, project much personal strength -- or, the kind of aggressive confidence that Rahm has in mostly unjustified spades.

In this Pelosi shares a short-coming of many successful female politicians of her generation -- on both sides of the aisle -- for whom the need to find the correct balance between strength and aggression has presented a problem that they most often have solved with an excess of somewhat dishonest decorum. The various versions of buttoned-down Chairwoman of the Garden Club demeanor political women of Pelosi's generation often adopt may have proven necessary to minimize hostility toward them -- but, unfortunately, it often does so at the expense of gut level confidence in them.  

So, there is reason to be nervous about either one of these people spending the next couple of years as the face of the Democratic congress. Nonetheless, given the choice between Rahm, who is not quite as tough and smart as he first appears, and Pelosi, who is much smarter and stronger than her demeanor may first lead some to believe, I'd vote for Pelosi.

And then there's the history making aspect. Which is incredibly important for a party so dependent on support from women.

by esmense 2006-11-02 03:43AM | 0 recs
Todd has his bully pulpit

C-Span gives Chuck Todd frequent opportunity to hold forth in the Washington Journal segment. He's often as much off-the-mark when giving his comments there as in this story.

When he offered his version of The Daily Show, that was the last straw for me. Hmmm, is he trying out a script with this prediction?

by Books Alive 2006-11-02 03:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Pelosi = Speaker
Murtha = Whip

She has earned it (by raising a lot of money and giving her own to other Dem candidates), and Murtha has supported her. Hoyer sucks...

by whataboutbob 2006-11-02 05:05AM | 0 recs
Murtha sucks worse

Murtha is anti-choice, anti-environment, and pro-selling out Democrats on close votes.

by lorax 2006-11-02 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I dunno. I don't think Pelosi and Hoyer have been that strong, In fact in some cases they have been terrible. Specifically as media spokespersons. We need a stronger public presence. Didn't Hoyer support the Bankruptcy bill? I'd be willing to look at someone different.

by Jano 2006-11-02 05:14AM | 0 recs
More like Speaker Murtha

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-11-02 05:36AM | 0 recs
Re: More like Speaker Murtha

Anti-choice Speaker Murtha? Sorry Hesiod, I'll pass.

by Interrobanger 2006-11-02 06:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

True responsibility entails compromise.  If you learned anything from the Bush years, it should be that.  No one gets it his or her own way all the time.  That's just life.  Look for the best you can get, and understand everyone else is trying to do that too, and they don't all agree with you.

by Mimikatz 2006-11-02 06:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Murtha was the first dem w/ the military cred to call for a pull out of Iraq - He came out, he stood his ground and the rest ran behind him - He may be awlful on everything else but he was right on this - So, the biggest reason the dems are poised to take advantage of the unfolding disaster is Murtha - He wont be the Speaker (he has a problem w/ speaking) but he will take, and deserves,  a prominent place - R.E. is just a beltway guy- nobody else knows him

by john from cal 2006-11-02 08:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Rahmbo picks the wrong fights.  He fights more effectively with other Democrats than he does with the Republicans.  I can't imagine the netroots -- largely supporters of Dean's 50 state strategy -- siding with Rahm on anything, much less against Nancy Pelosi. He doesn't know how to lead. He's my congresscritter, and when I see him on the TV I wince: come on Rahm, you don't have to parrot Rethug talking points, stand up for the Democrats!  Geez.  And also, I can't imagine supporting anyone who has made his disagreements with other Dems -- esp. with Howard Dean -- so public.  Its one thing to disagree over strategy: its quite another to allow those disagreements to be public knowledge: bad form.

by Maven 2006-11-02 09:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Emanuel is my congress critter - he's a jerk

by thelonius 2006-11-02 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

I'm for Pelosi. She was cool and human on the Daily Show, and that's my litmus test for media presence.

Beyond my aching desire to have the most powerful American political figure ever be a Democrat, I'm for Pelosi because Republicans hate her. They're trying to make her emblematic of something negative about Democrats, and I think it will only make her stronger. Think of how much we progressives disliked Newt from the start. That's what I want for those hill Republicans. Everybody needs a signal that there's a new sheriff in town. Americans are going to the polls for a change. You can't come back with Republican Lite.

by DaddyDemocrat 2006-11-02 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Speaker Emanuel?

Beyond my aching desire to have the most powerful American woman politician ever be a Democrat...

by DaddyDemocrat 2006-11-02 02:16PM | 0 recs

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