Segue Open Thread

I have to head out for several hours (Andy Stern event and ward meeting), but here are some items that segue into one another:
  • According to a new Survey USA poll in NY-26, Jack Davis (D) has taken the lead on Tom Reynolds, the incumbent and chair of the NRCC. The race currently stands at 50%-45%, in favor of Davis. The previous poll had shown Reynolds up by three points.

  • Speaking of polls, the Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot is holding steady. The three polls to come out this week, CNN, AP-Ipsos, and GW, show an average of 51.0%--41.3%, in favor of Democrats. That is as good as any likely voter advantage we have ever had in this campaign season. For that matter, it is way better than any likely voter average we have had in many, many years. Also, you know that I have gone off the deep end when I start expecting a 15-point lead to make me happy. If Democrats win the popular vote for the House by 15 points, they will win about 300 seats. I guess I just want a ridiculous cushion for what I fear will be the eventual Republican closing in the final two weeks. I don't actually think 100 pickups are in the stars for us this year, although even Faux News thinks it could be as high as 50 seats now.

  • Speaking of stars, there are apparently billions of planets in the galaxy. That is kind of, well, humbling.

  • Speaking of humbling, Andy Stern will be coming to Fergie's Pub tonight at 6pm. If you live in or near Philly, that is 1214 Sansom Street. The humbling part is because the City's most difficult Quizo follows the event at 9:30. I used to dominate that Quizo along with my brother Andy and his girlfriend Amy. But now, I think we are getting dumber and older. We don't go anymore.

  • Speaking of Andy Stern and Quizo, leave your questions for him in the comments. I will choose the best one or two to ask him tonight.

  • Speaking of best, is Mark Kennedy a great candidate, or the greatest candidate ever? Take the poll in the extended entry.
Speaking of the extended entry, in the comments, tell the world what is on your mind.

Tags: Open Threads (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Fight the Foley Five

Reynolds and Hastert are on the defensive, but we need to step up the attack on Boehner and Shimkus.

Help their opponents: Fight the Foley Five

by The Cunctator 2006-10-05 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

Ward meetings - wish I could make them. Unfortunately, the bank where I work holds their weekly meetings on Thursday night, thus preventing me from doing so.

by PsiFighter37 2006-10-05 12:56PM | 0 recs
Fox

I suppose fox is trying to scare the disillusioned base into voting.

If the Democrats gained a veto-proof majority, even Bush would be no obstacle to our campaign to destroy america.  We could pass the veto-proof "Surrender to terrorism, drugs and crime" bill.

If only there were some kind of other legislative body that would act as a check on the house...a senate of sorts.

by scientician 2006-10-05 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Fox
I think it's two fold... it could help scare the conservative base, but it's also geared to change the expectations game. Does anyone really think we can pick up 50 seats? I wish that were true, but it's just not.

But if Fox and others (anyone read George Will this morning in the Post?) can get people to believe anything less than a 50-seat pick-up is an utter failure of the Democrats to make good on the opportunity dropped in their lap, they will try to hamstring and weaken a new Democratic led House (and/or Senate) and try to peddle their next lines "Wow, this was the best they could do... how can we expect them to lead after that fumble."

They're resigned to the fact that we're about to take control of the House (which, was going to happen before Foley-gate happened) and this gives them an excuse to set unreasonable expectations and blame Democrats when they don't achieve them and weaken the next House leadership.

by CAat14K 2006-10-05 02:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

I can't believe that IL-06 is in play.  I lived there in 1996 and that summer we went to a town fair type thing in Naperville and the streets were lined with tables with Dole merch as far as the eye could see, with not a single Clinton-Gore table, and this was when they were running as incumbents.  

It was the only election where I ever pulled a straight party line vote without even researching the individual candidates.  I have never lived in a redder district in my whole life, and I think Jabba the Hyde won at least 75% of the vote.

by NJIndependent 2006-10-05 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

Chris,

I'm so glad you're beginning to see the big picture here. If we win this election by 8% to 12% we're going to pick up a significant number of seats. If we win this election by 13% to 18% we're going to win a 1932 type landslide!

The fact that we are CONSISTANTLY ahead by 10 to 14 points (with less than a month before the election) shows that we are headed towards a big victory in November. I doubt we'll win 100 seats. But we can realistically say that it's possible for us to win 40 to 50.

What were the polls showing less than four weeks before the 2004 election? How about 2002? 2000? 1998? etc. Democrats are now consistantly polling above 50%! Democrats are consistantly MORE MOTIVATED to vote! Which means, contrary to what the Washington pundocracy says, I believe more Dems will vote than Republicans - skewing the "likely voter" results, which show the opposite.

Too bad Rahm Emmanuel is still targetting two dozen or so! But that Reynold's race was SERIOUSLY tightening even BEFORE the scandal broke. Even though it's in New York, it's still A VERY REPUBLICAN DISTRICT! Which begs the question: how many more "moderate" or "Democratic-friendly" districts, some of which have not even been polled, do you think are CLOSING --- FAST! Or, possibly, may show a Democratic lead...

By my last count - Democrats already LED in THIRTY Republican districts. I understand caution. That's fine. But we have to begin preparing ourselves for a BIG VICTORY in November. Everything seems to point in that direction!

by JackBourassa 2006-10-05 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

Another thing I want to mention...

The Republicans get 40% of the vote with 90% or so of the Republican base supporting them! The reason they consistantly trail is not because their base isn't supporting them...it's because INDEPENDENTS are not supporting them!

You look at races where the Republicans are doing well or Democrats are not doing as well. The California Governor Race and the Conneticut Senate race. What do these two races have in common? Well, independents are supporting Arnold in California over Angelides and are supporting Lieberman in Conneticut over Lamont.

Everywhere else the opposite is true. Everywhere else Democrats are leading (in some cases by 3 to 1) with independents.

If you remember that break-down of party support by Pew last year, it showed 42% support for Democrats; 38% for Republicans; and 20% for independents. Democrats have a slight edge. This has been countered in past years with more enthusiasm among Republicans over Democrats. Consistantly, Republicans would get 93% of their parties support vs. Democrats who would get 87% or so. That "levelled" the playing field. Independents usually split down the middle. Thus our red-blue 50/50 dynamic which has defined politics in America for the past decade or so.

But in this election...the numbers are reversed! Democrats get 93% base support vs. Republicans getting 87% or so. This, by itself, should shift the vote in our favor by what? 6 to 8% Couple that with a two-to-one advantage among independents and what do you get?

A LANDSLIDE baby! A LANDSLIDE!

by JackBourassa 2006-10-05 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

One final thing...

1992 was really not that good of a year for us. It was good on a superficial level, we won the Presidency! But don't forget we won the Presidency with 43% of the vote.

That year we LOST 9 House seats, and BROKE EVEN in Senate races.

I sure as hell hope this isn't another 1992!

by JackBourassa 2006-10-05 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

One absolutely FINAL thing, I promise...

Chris,

Your arithmatic is off. Those three polls show the average Democratic lead to be (among LIKELY VOTERS):

Democrats 51.7%
Republicans 40.3%

Democrat lead by 11.4%

by JackBourassa 2006-10-05 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Segue Open Thread

Can someone comment on just how credible Jack Davis is?  I am thinking of sending him a contribution through actblue, but I want to be sure that it won't be throwing money down a well, as there are many others who could use it.  But I HATE Tom Reynolds and would love the post-election narrative that their own campaign chairman lost.  Haha.

by jgarcia 2006-10-05 01:47PM | 0 recs
Davis is a serious, well-funded candidate

He clearly wants this seat. In 2004, he spent $1 million of his own money against Reynolds, and won 44% of the vote. This cycle, he has committed to spend $2 million of his own money.

He's a very wealthy, older guy. He could be living on a yacht in the Mediterranean right now. You should feel totally confident sending him a donation.

by OfficeOfLife 2006-10-05 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Davis is a serious, well-funded candidate

thank you for that post.  I'm confident now, lol.  I'll hit actblue now.  :)

by jgarcia 2006-10-05 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Davis is a serious, well-funded candidate

a very wealthy, older guy. He could be living on a yacht in the Mediterranean right now. You should feel totally confident sending him a donation.

If DINO's are your thing.

Anybody else get a chill with a reputed Democrat in Buffalo who leads off his platform with concern about those illegal immigrants - the darker-skinned ones of course?

Best,  Terry

by terryhallinan 2006-10-05 09:17PM | 0 recs
No chills at all

I encourage immigration - the LEGAL kind.

Brown people are totally welcome in my neighborhood. All I ask is that the follow the law. Like I would have to do if I were moving to their country.

Open borders is not a mainstream Democratic position. It is far, far to the extreme of that.

I support the American worker. When I see illegal immigrants driving down wages in construction, landscaping, and food service positions, I get angry.  Sympathy is the furthest thing from my mind.

by OfficeOfLife 2006-10-06 10:59PM | 0 recs
There are no DINOs

Especially not Davis, whose main issues are labor, bringing back good paying manufacturing jobs, and trade, where he is to the left of most Democrats.

I recall seeing similar attacks on MyDD (not from you) aimed at Tammy Duckworth because she ran an ad saying she opposes amnesty for illegal aliens.  Geez, how much ideological purity do we want?  Let's get something straight.  Support for illegal immigration is the domain of the loony Marxist/anarchist extreme left and the anti-union Chamber of Commerce right.  It is not a liberal, Democratic position.  I have no sympathy for those who think they have some kind of "right" to jump ahead of the line in front of those who went through all the hoops to move here legally.  Nor for those who would enable them or defend them.

by ACSR 2006-10-08 05:13AM | 0 recs
A 15 Point Lead---ask and ye shall receive

Here you go, Chris:

http://americablog.blogspot.com/2006/10/ time-poll-sex-scandal-has-hurt-gop.html

by bosdcla14 2006-10-05 02:47PM | 0 recs
2nd poll shows Davis ahead in NY-26

In this one Davis leads Reynolds 50% - 42%.  Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research did the poll for the Davis campaign.

Story here - http://www.rollcall.com/issues/1_1/elect ion06/15355-1.html

by SteveWFP 2006-10-05 02:58PM | 0 recs
Rasmussen has some great numbers, too

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Oct ober%20Dailies/MarkFoley.htm

13 point lead in the generic ballot (47/34), and 61%(!) think the Republican leadership has been "protecting [Mark] Foley for several years".  Even 31% of Republicans think so.

Bush is still stuck at 40, too, although that is almost secondary at this point.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job _Approval.htm

by Geotpf 2006-10-05 03:02PM | 0 recs
Quizo

Yes, Fergie's has quite a difficult Quizo. Was only there once, didn't do too bad though.

McCrossen's Tavern in the art museum area has a nice Sunday night Quizo that usually has a decent amount of political/world affairs questions. I rock those.

by LiberalFromPA 2006-10-05 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Quizo

Fergie's isn't that hard...

I used to be part of a decent-sized quizzo team that did well there. Sometimes I miss Philly, but the pub quizzes in Colorado make up for it.

by sxp151 2006-10-05 04:14PM | 0 recs
How much of a majority do we want?

It's my understanding (and I could be wrong), that in the British Parliament, the majority party usually does better when their margin over the opposition is slight. If Labour controls 5 more seats than the Tories, the party performs better and the government is more efficient than if they control 50 seats more than the Tories.  

The theory here is that the party in power has to retain greater discipline over its members when there is a smaller majority over the opposition, because even just a few defections could lead to blocked legislation or worse.  When the majority is large, however, the government and leadership are less strict with the MPs of their party.

So, mentioning that Fox is saying we could pick up 50 seats and giving into the fantasy of winning 100 just makes me wonder:  Would we be better off with a majority of just a few seats or a majority of 50 seats?

by Reece 2006-10-05 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: How much of a majority do we want?

Would we be better off with a majority of just a few seats or a majority of 50 seats?

Depends entirely on who occupies those seats.

When the Solid South was Democratic, House chairmanships were dominated by southerners, if not southern segregationists.

If we add lots and lots of pro-torture, anti-choice, minority immigrant-hating "conservatives," it may not be an undiluted blessing to have Nancy Pelosi as Speaker rather than whatever disaster the Republicans settle on to replace their current disgrace.

Best,  Terry

by terryhallinan 2006-10-06 05:18AM | 0 recs

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