Senate Forecast Update
by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 07:32:58 PM EST
The latest Senate forecast is up. Unlike last week, there is nothing but good news for Democrats in this one. I have moved by seat projection from a Democratic gain of four seats to a gain of five seats. With McCaskill's gains in Missouri, I was extremely tempted to, for the first time ever, forecast a six seat pickup for Democrats. Here are the seat by seat changes:
- Ohio moves from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic." Twenty-point leads and Republicans abandoning a former "firewall" state will cause that sort of thing to happen.
- Virginia remains a toss-up, but now I project it for Democrats instead of Republicans. Webb is starting to look very good here.
- Tennessee moves form "Lean Republican" to "Toss-up." Maybe I'm putting too much faith in Ford's internals, but we shall see.
- New Jersey moves form "Toss-up" to "lean Democratic." Sorry Teagan.
I plan on making two more Senate forecasts before the election, one on Saturday and one on Monday. I'll have a new House forecast up tomorrow.