Governor Forecast 2006: Races Beginning to Break
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Oct 03, 2006 at 04:02:15 PM EDT
Five weeks from election day, a number of gubernatorial races appear to be breaking -- although not all in the same direction.
Given the stregth of Democrats in polling out of Colorado and Arkansas, those two states now join Ohio and Massachusetts as "likely" pick-ups for the Democrats. The rating of five GOP governorships as "likely Democratic" points to a big swing among the nation's executives. At the same time, California and Florida -- which for at least a time appeared to be competitive, though leaning Republican -- are now becoming less competitive, moving into the "likely Republican" category. Interestingly, SurveyUSA polling from South Carolina indicates the possibility of a competitive race, though I'll wait for other polling before I jump on that race just yet.
There isn't as much polling from Democratic-held governor races as there has been from GOP seats, but there is some movement in at least one race. Bowing to the polling, I have begrudgingly moved Oregon to the "toss-up" category, though I still believe Ted Kulongoski will be able to pull off a victory.
For more on the key governor races this year, check out the full MyDD Governor Forecast 2006.