Lieberman Up by 8
by Matt Stoller, Sun Oct 29, 2006 at 08:54:57 AM EST
According to this diary, Lieberman is now up 8 points on Lamont according to the latest Rasmussen.
Lieberman (I) 48%
Lamont (D) 40%
Schlesinger (R) 9%
It looks like Schlesinger is taking votes from Lieberman, and that the Q-Poll was an outlier. Lamont has a massive GOTV operation, much larger than Lieberman's. I wouldn't be surprised if Lieberman's operation replicated his corrupt primary approach, which involved putting lots of untraceable cash on the streets.
This poll feels right, and it's more in line with internal polls across the state that I've heard about. Lamont has sat in the low forties since August, and Lieberman has lost a few points to Alan's charismatic performances, which also makes sense. Still, if this is the score going into election day, it's hard to see how Lamont makes up 8 points. Looking at it optimistically, there is ballot positioning, which could take a few points from Lieberman, and there's field, which could add a few to Lamont. And then there's the fact that a certain percentage of hard-core Republicans may just balk at voting for Lieberman, period, even though they'll tell a pollster otherwise. 8 is a lot to make up.
Of course, it's not election day, and the trend is in the right direction. The war keeps growing as an issue, and while it's not adding to Lamont's support, it is damaging Joe.
Endorsements are coming in, with the New York Times endorsing Lamont in a great editorial, and the NH Register and Courant endorsing Lieberman. None of the papers changed their stances from the primaries.