New Senate Polls

Lots of new Senate polls from Mason-Dixon. Nothing earth-shattering. In fact, the polls project each race to be just about exactly where the conventional wisdom, and polling average, on that election currently resides. Political Wire has the breakdown:Pennsylvania: Bob Casey (D) leads Rick Santorum (R), 51% to 39%
Rhode Island: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) leads Lincoln Chafee (R), 48% to 43%
Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) leads Jim Talent (R), 46% to 43%
New Jersey: Bob Menendez (D) leads Thomas Kean Jr (R), 45% to 42%
Washington: Maria Cantwell (D) leads Mike McGavick (R), 52% to 37%
Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Mike DeWine (R), 48% to 40%
Montana: Jon Tester (D) leads Conrad Burns (R), 46% to 43%
Tennessee: Bob Corker (R) leads Harold Ford (D), 45% to 43%
Virginia: George Allen (R) leads James Webb (D), 47% to 43% Only two Republicans, George Allen and Bob Corker, pass 43%. I still like our chances to pick up 4-6 seats, not counting Connecticut. Visit Pollster.com for more numbers. It is about time that we built a superior website to Real Clear Politics, and Pollster.com is just that.

Tags: polls, Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

11 Comments

5 to 1

I bet my father(R) that Bob Casey and Sherrod Brown would both win. I gave him 5 to 1 odds. It's looking pretty darn good.

by Cleveland John 2006-10-24 06:53AM | 0 recs
correction

One other Republican, Bob Corker, is over 43%, at 45%...

by OH Mark 2006-10-24 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: correction
Yeah, I missed that. Will fix.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-24 08:27AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate Polls

Lincoln Chaffee should have switched parties when he had the chance.

by NJIndependent 2006-10-24 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate Polls
I'd rather than Whitehouse than Chafee in the Dem caucus anyway.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-24 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate Polls

OK, I don't disagree with that.  I'm just saying that if Chafee had switched, he wouldn't be losing.  The thing about this race is party affiliation only.  Chafee is by far the most liberal Republican in the Senate, and I'm sure, by far the least offensive Republican to everyone here.  But he's still getting kicked out anyway just because he's a Republican and the country is sick of his party.  He easily could have fit into the Democratic caucas had he so chosen.

by NJIndependent 2006-10-24 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate Polls

He's hardly a bright bulb or a profile in courage.  Had he switched parties before, I'd support him now.  At this point, I won't miss him.  His Dad was another story...

by Sandwich Repairman 2006-10-24 11:01AM | 0 recs
MSNBC Headline

But polls show no evidence of a national Democratic 'tidal wave'

Gee MSNBC, these polls show Democrats with a good shot at taking the Senate but are not evidence of a national Democratic 'tidal wave'?????  Well, ok, it will just make election night that much sweeter.

by msstaley 2006-10-24 08:35AM | 0 recs
Re: MSNBC Headline

Yeah, that was a strange observation. In 1994 the Republicans won a lot of races by close margins.

by elrod 2006-10-24 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate Polls

I'm dissapointed to see that racist swine Corker up in Tennessee. Ford was up in the most recent polls I saw, but I suppose it's the blizzard of racist negative campaign ads, combined with the rural "you can't really be thinking of electing that nigger?" vote.

This shouldn't even be close when you simply look at the candidates themselves. Corker is a tool and Ford has run a brilliant campaign and is just obviously vastly superior. But as he says in his latest ad: "Bob Corker's run a negative campaign. He's attacked my family. If I had a dog he'd probably kick him too!" http://www.fordfortennessee.com/ That cracked me up. That's just perfectly how you sum up Corker's attacks: "If I had a dog, he'd kick my dog."

If he can't win this election, I don't think any black man can win a statewide election in the South.

I think that unless Ford's up by around 5 points on election day (which is perfectly possible) he will narrowly lose. Racism is under-cover in America today, but in the privacy of the voting booth you can do what you want and justify it however you like.

I'll believe that southern whites will elect a black man senator when I see it and not until.

by Cugel 2006-10-24 09:43AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate Polls

I've been worrying lately about the propensity of a small subset of the population to tell pollsters they'll vote for a black candidate when in reality they won't do so.  I think you may be right; Ford may need about a 5 point lead in the polls to win here.

Then again, the polls don't account for last-minute deciders, or partisan disparities in voter turnout.  It's still possible that even Jon Kyl could lose.  I believe Stuart Rothenberg most recently projected us gaining 4 to 8 Senate seats.  I think that's about as wide a range as you have to choose to be almost totally certain.  It's also the same thing I said months ago...

I feel slightly better about McCaskill's chances lately as poll after poll shows her with a small but consistent lead.  It would make me pull my hair out (what's left of it) if we lost TN and VA and wound up with another 50-50 Senate.

by Sandwich Repairman 2006-10-24 11:05AM | 0 recs

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