Total Republican Collapse Imminent

The last ten days have been amazing. Starting with Bill Clinton fighting back against Faux News, we have now seen:I'm sure that I am forgetting some stuff too. But there is this other thing that is going on: This meltdown has been breathtaking. Even before it started, Democrats were already on the brink of at least taking control, if not a huge wave election. Now, even taking the Senate seems entirely possible. At this point, who knows how bad things will get for Republicans in elections around the country. There is no way to hold off an onslaught like this when they were already in such a bad position. Even the generally cautious, uber-insider Hotline is now starting to see a wave:



Matt is right that Democrats in Congress once again showed how they are not an effective opposition party because of their weak campaign to stop the torture bill (although I disagree when he says they could have "easily" stopped" the bill with an effective campaign). However, I am starting to seriously think that that bill may be the last time we have to worry about ineffective opposition form Democrats in Congress. In the face of total Republican collapse, a good situation for Democrats is quickly turning into a rout. My only regret is that the election ends in five weeks instead of two weeks, because there may be enough time for Republicans to at least somewhat recover and keep the battle for control close. Right now, at least in the House, I don't think the battle for control is very close. There is just no way they can win in the face of this when they were already losing before it.

Please, someone pinch me to make sure that I am not dreaming. This is a total Republican collapse. The House of Representatives may now be ours to lose, but we need to make sure that we stay on the attack as much as possible, and not slack off for one second.

Tags: 2006 elections, Republicans (all tags)

Comments

36 Comments

here's my only worry.

i'm not sure how much traction it's having in the mainstream media.

<namedrop>
I was talking to Jello Biafra last night (yes, THAT Jello Biafra.) at a show in Oakland.
</namedrop>

And he hadn't heard about the Foley scandal at all, which was pretty amazing as I got to drop some knowledge on one of the guys who helped politicize me and turn punk rock aggroness into real change and social awareness.

But I digress, Jello doesn't read blogs, do e-mail any of that... he doesn't even have a computer.

I know, I know... he should.

But he hadn't heard anything about it, and think about how plugged in he is.

However, this IS still in the newscycle and people are paying attention now.

So maybe i'm just being worrisome.

-C.

by neutron 2006-10-02 04:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

Oh, and they also eliminated habeas corpus and legalized torture only 4 days ago, though Bush has yet to sign the bill (expect another round of media attention when that happens).

The only thing I can think of that's going right for them is that gas prices are still dropping.  Oil spot market dropped another $2/barrel today to $61, down from $79 just 2 months ago.  Oil prices generally drop in the fall - they did the same thing last year - but the drop this year has been exceeding quick and large.

by aip 2006-10-02 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

omg u guys are funny when u stop flaming and crying u might win a election u are so playing into the republicans hands thats why i am a independent,carl rove is leading you guys around and you cant see it,lol

by XxSnakexX 2006-10-02 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

If you weren't so busy trolling, XxSnakexX, you might just take a look around and notice that on all of mydd, you are pretty much the only one unable to master the fundamentals of written communication.  Just a few petty things, really ... like punctuation, spelling, capitalization, the use of complete sentences, cohesive thought ...

It's fine if you have an opinion and want to discuss it, even if it differs from other opinions posted here, but please -- try to remember that you're not texting your 13-year-old buddies, dude.

Also, I'm assuming that "flaming" is a gay-bash, no?  Maybe it's something else and I'm too much of an old fart to be down with the lingo, but if not, then please keep your bigoted comments to yourself and/or your (beard) girlfriend's cell phone. lol.

by Ms Bluezone 2006-10-02 07:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

try to remember that you're not texting your 13-year-old buddies, dude.

Are you suggesting that XxsnakexX is Mark Foley?

by Shawn 2006-10-02 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

Here's what I want to know: How is the dizzying spate of rotten-to-the-core news items that you listed above, unfolding over the course of a week and change (and thank you for having the fortitude to gather all that slime), and ALL of it proof of the incompetence and evil of the Republican party -- How is this not news in and of itself? MSM outlets should be writing this exact story.

by jamfan 2006-10-02 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

It's only news if it happens to Demorats..."Democrats Flounder" ... "Democrats Struggle to Find Message" ... "Democrats on the Defensive" ...

When it happens to the Rethuglicans, it's nothing to see...move along, please...strange aberration...

by Oregonian 2006-10-02 04:42PM | 0 recs
Pinch

Granted, this is all very good news for the Dems.

Dose of reality.  It will only take one scumbag Dem to screw it all up.  If it turns out that there is a Dem congressman or candidate that is also a bigtime Abramoff buy-off, or worse, a sexual predator, it will balance out the whole story -- unless the Dem leadership reacts vastly differently than the GOP has.  (i.e. cuts the guy right away, even if the seat is competitive and says something like, "we would rather have a right wing republican elected than a pervert.")  Will/Can the Dem leadership do the right thing if this happens?   I hope so, but I wouldn't invest my 401k on that chance.

by The lurking ecologist 2006-10-02 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Pinch

if that happens- noting they do will matter. that's how the game is played. the republicans aren't held accountable, and we are. that's the reality of being on the side of angels rather than power for the sake of power.

by bruh21 2006-10-02 05:03PM | 0 recs
485 times

I've been reading the blogs on and off all day and hadn't read that exact number.

485 contacts with Abramoff.

485.

Four hundred eighty five.

by kid oakland 2006-10-02 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

You are not dreaming.  We are witnessing the total collapse of the Repubs.  There was open talk on Countdown tonight of Hastert resigning.  Who would have predicted that a week ago? I agree that it would be better if the election were 2 weeks away not 5 weeks but I feel good about where we are.  The Foley story is not going away - the press loves this type of stuff and the Repubs, are for once, at a loss for words.  Unbelievable.

I also want to comment on Matt's piece and the torture vote.  I agree with him on the issue and wish the Dems had been tougher but I think he tends to under estimates the power of the majority party in Congress.  The majority party has incredible levers of power at its disposal when it wants to get something done.  I am not saying the Dems couldn't have done more but the power of the majority can sometimes make the minority look weaker than it actually is.

by John Mills 2006-10-02 05:14PM | 0 recs
I know we don't like market references

But today they moved in our favor. So I guess the dreaded conventional wisdom concurs, at least partially.

The senate odds changed on Tradesports for the first time in months, down to 75% GOP control. And we moved back to slight favorites in the House, at about 53%.

Those are equivalent to odds, BTW. The Iowa Futures Market clown who wrote to think of it in terms of a vote percentage is a moron. He wrote than in terms of a presidential race which was close to 50/50. Fine. But what about '96, when Clinton would have traded at 90+%. Does he really think that's equivalent to a prediction of the popular vote percentage?

I'm watching Woodward now on Larry King and I  really wish the other stuff had been earlier/later or not at all. Woodward's info is devastating but I don't see it getting the play it deserves, probably based on what was mentioned on MyDD, that sex sells.

My prediction that Bush's approval rating would be 45% on election day has been wonderfully lanced. I'll be interested to see the new polls but I would guess in the 40% area. The flood of news means I can root for gas prices to decline without feeling guilty about how it impacts our chances:)

by jagakid 2006-10-02 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

Don't unclench just yet.  Rove will have an October surprise loaded up.  I'd bet on a barely-averted terror plot around, oh, October 10th or 15th.  Although I have to say, I think it might backfire this time.

by takhallus 2006-10-02 05:49PM | 0 recs
Okay, I'll pinch you

I hope you're right, but I've been a Democrat too long to be wildly optimistic. That and the Scandahoovian genes.

Here's my fear: Bush, Cheney, Rummy and many more are all indictable at this point. For war crimes, treason, corruption. The works. So why would they ever agree to "go quietly?'

This gang doesn't believe in democracy. They don't believe in the rule of law. They don't believe in the Constitution.

I do think we got 'em cornered and on the ropes. I think they ARE in danger of losing Congress. So at this point, Cheney and Rove have got to be planning a very, very big October surprise to change the narrative.

They're not dumb. They're evil. And when it comes to power, they're ruthless.

So what will it be? Nuke Iran? Or a domestic act of "terror?" followed by the declaration of martial law?

This article (http://www.consortiumnews.com/2006/02210 6a.html) talks about  how in late January of this year, Halliburton was awarded a $385 million contract to build detention centers somewhere in the United States. According to the New York Times, these detention centers would be used to house people in the event of a natural disaster or "for new programs that require additional detention space."

So, in light of the torture legislation just passed that allows the President to declare anyone to be an enemy combatant (using any criteria that the President chooses) and be indefinitely detained.........well, it's worrisome. I mean, why would we need a rapid construction of a network of detention camps in the United States?

I wanna be an optimist. I hope they get their butts kick at the polls in November and go quietly. But these folks make Nixon look like a lamb.

by midwestmeg 2006-10-02 05:53PM | 0 recs
My theory, for what it's worth

 The media is NOT our friend. The last six years have been characterized by complete media sycophancy to the Bushies, with the runup to the Iraq war being the most egregious example.

 But over the last couple of weeks, the media has actually sort of done its job -- and they're even FOLLOWING UP and rejecting Republican spin. That's a complete sea change in their approach over their behavior in the last few years.

 So my guess is that there are still some important, powerful Americans who retain consciences, love their country, and have signaled to the "gatekeepers" that BushCo needs to be stopped. They've seen Iraq, they see Iran, they've seen the deficits, they see the religious right, and they've seen enough. They don't like where all this is going any more than we do -- remember that neocons are but a small subset of actual conservatives.  And they've unleashed the hounds to try to stop the madness.

 My guess is that the military does NOT want to do Iran, given how Rumsfeld's eviscerated it, and given that the idea is nuts anyway. And military leaders, speaking through the unassailable and respected Jack Murtha, have been shocked and horrified at the pugs' treatment of him. That was likely a HUGE wakeup call to traditional conservatives that the Bush/Cheney axis is just plain batshit insane, like nothing we've ever seen before in America.

Maybe we still have some patriots after all.  

The problem is that my confidence in the Democrats' ability to make the best of the situation is shaky at best, given their track record of feebleness as an opposition party. But things are going SO bad for the Party of Perverts that simple adequacy might just be good enough.

Just my theory...

by Master Jack 2006-10-02 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: My theory, for what it's worth

It's post-Katrina, the Iraq War is a disaster, there are no WMD, the creeps in the WH showed they were willing to out a CIA agent to save their own asses, even idiots see that the weather patterns are changing, the cost of gas has gobsmacked farmers all across the US, the housing market is softening... and need I mention a Republican pedophile?

Even people who voted for Bush in 2004 got a Wake Up Call From Hell with Katrina. (And, BTW, that includes  a couple of evangelicals that I know, who are now talking about something that they call 'Creation Care' to deal with global warming.)   People realize that 'something's wrong.'  They may not know the details, but that elemental fact does not escape them.

Howie Klein is probably the person doing the best job of really introducing candidates and making a case that -- the CALIBER of Democrats running for Congress this year is impressive.  

Look across the country: Eric Massa (NY), Braley (IO), Goldmark (WA), Grant (ID), Kissell, the Dems running in Colorado... these are all very impressive candidates.  When have we had a molecular biologist/farmer in Congress?  We will if Peter Goldmark wins.  Larry Grant has been instrumental at Micron (largest employer in Idaho).   I don't recall any group of candidates this promising.  It's fascinating to me that SO MANY interesting, committed people are running for Congress.

It took the country getting into this degree of filth and slime to bring out the best, but I'm coming to the view that if these Dems are elected, this will be a very transformational election.  .  Not simply because 'more Dems will hold seats' -- that's very superficial.  It's because so many SMART Dems will hold seats.  This appears to be a remarkably talented group of candidates across the board, and I don't think the Republicans even grasp what they are really up against.

The thing that I hope more posters and commenters will focus on in coming weeks is how amazing it is that all these engaged, apparently smart, competent people are running for office.

This is very, very unusual.  

Perhaps I've spent too much time with people involved in personnel and hiring, but the quality of the 'hiring pool' is cyclical.  Sometimes they'll be excited because they have so many great prospective candidates, and then other years they're glum and grouchy because it's just a 'shallow pool'.  

I don't fully understand what drives this, but I have observed that it's unusual to have a period in which SO MUCH talent is rising to the challenge. I suspect that many of this years' candidates might be doing some other things with their lives, if they weren't so incredibly appalled by what's happened under Bush.

I also credit Howard Dean -- whatever he's doing (along with the blogs) is working some strange magic.  I think that if even half these Democrats win, the change could be extraordinary BECAUSE these appear to be highly motivated, smart people who have very strong committments to clear outcomes. That's something that we've not seen from Democrats in my memory.

In other words, it's my fervent  hope that the builshit days of pr-brained 'wedge issues' are simply not credible in view of the very grim problems facing the U.S.  So if the Dem's win, they're going to have plenty of heavy lifting ahead of them.

And the polls will be very important -- if the Diebold machines toss elections to Republicans who are down by 10% in the polls, then the Diebold fiasco will be further revealed.  With a pretty solid gap in poll numbers, the Republicans have less opportunity to throw elections.  

I really sense that we may be upon the cusp of a transformative time in US history.  It's going to take a lot of voter turnout, but if these Dems win, I have a hunch they're motivated by a whole lot more than a paycheck and some ego massage.  Every indication that I see suggests that these guys are not running in order to roll over and do K Street's bidding.

Should be interesting.  And Bush has so little crediblity at this point, he may as well pack it up. Osama could blow up the WH and half the public would figure it was a Rovian tactic at this point.  These asshats have cried 'wolf' too many times, and I don'ot see the public buying too much more of their bullshit.  Even the conservative voters that I know are seriously pissed.  

by readerOfTeaLeaves 2006-10-02 11:20PM | 0 recs
Re: My theory, for what it's worth

I agree. In Minnesota, the caliber of folks running for Congress is also unusually high---Keith Ellison, Tim Waltz, Colleen Rowley.....

by midwestmeg 2006-10-03 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

DO NOT get our hopes up. I do not need to go through another bout of post-election depression, as in 2004, when they stole the election AGAIN and Kerry caved at the earliest opportunity, despite having promised he wouldn't.

by lightyearsfromhome 2006-10-02 06:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

Even if we take both Houses, will the Democratic "leadership" have the guts to launch investigations or a special prosecutor?

by antiHyde 2006-10-02 06:13PM | 0 recs
I would say their momentum is stopped

Their two best issues have been de-fanged. Victory is not guaranteed, but at least Democratic issues can now be heard.

First, Speaker Pelosi no longer sounds like such a bad idea.

Second, How could the Democrats possibly do any worse on Terrorism and Iraq than the GOP? How would that be possible?

Ergo: it's time for a change.

In addition to keeping up the attack, I think it's very important to sell candy:

College loans for all
Lower health premiums
Higher minimum wage
Lower gas prices
Guaranteed Social Security for the next 100 years.
Middle-class tax cuts.

How do you pay for all this? Easy. Just get rid of the Republican crooks and perverts in charge of Congress.

by stevehigh 2006-10-02 06:27PM | 0 recs
What amazes me

is that there has been so much evidence out there of their incompetence.  I have read Imperial Hubris, Richard Clarke's book,  Assassin's Gate, Cobra II and Fiasco.  Now there is Hubris, the One percent Solution and now Woodward's book.  How come the Dems just can't keep hitting about how incompetent these people are?  Are they afraid of disgracing the poor families with loved ones, or worse, who lost loved ones, in Iraq?  This is not just a scandal, it is an outrage!  Lord knows that if we had a Newt Gingrich on our side, the story would be different.  These people are throwing democracy away!  The evidence is overwhelming, but still, Bush has 40% support. How can this be?

I have been doing GOTV calls in MD lately.  We are now working to get people to vote by mail.  People I call do not trust the voting system.  This is so scary.  People feel helpless.

by MDMan 2006-10-02 06:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

Steve Gilliard introduced the pugil stick metaphor to Democratic electoral streetfighting,  Above is a picture of a pugil stick bout.  In the Marines, recruits train with the pugil stick, a heavily padded quarterstaff.  Pugilists fight until the loser is unable to fight further - not in pain, not demoralized, incapacitated.  The goal is to induce the ability to fight back with a bayonet when completely exhausted and to encourage general toughness.  The victor is not permitted to show mercy and the loser is not permitted to request or receive it; the drill instructors will nail anyone who shows mercy in these bouts.  (Those with certain medical conditions are barred from the pugil stick training.)

Moral: it is not enough to demoralize the GOP.  They must be crippled, wounded, rendered unable to inhale, begging to heaven for an immediate sweet end to this vale of tears.  The DEMS must keep battering them on this until the GOP is puking and spitting mucous in doubled-over agony.  Then crushed in the head with the end of the stick, hard, like a spear.  

Why?  This is the business we have chosen.  These folks protect sexual predators, no mercy is due to them.  Now is the time to inflict the mother of all righteous anger and revenge on these corrupt, fraudulent, bellicose theocratic bastards.  Karma for Clinton, x1000.  

I could say more, but this is not the forum and decorum calls for restraint.

by Bruce Godfrey 2006-10-02 07:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

...it is not enough to demoralize the GOP...

When your opponents are drowning, throw the bastards an anvil.

by Michael Bersin 2006-10-02 07:23PM | 0 recs
Bet that GOP are holding their fire

In WW2, one of the features of US public opinion about the Jap soldier was an oscillation between ideas of him as superhuman andsubhuman. Either he was an android impervious to jungle conditions or a near ape - the favorite propaganda image - incapable of independent thought and action.

I wonder whether the lefty opinion about the GOP as an electoral force has reached a similar pass: on the one hand, one has the laundry list of fubars in Chris's post - plus others, I'm sure, to come; on the other hand, we have Rove and his cohorts, an almost Fu Manchu-like combination of amorality and effectiveness.

My sense would be that what the GOP have over the Dems is a working assumption that things will go seriously wrong, and the capacity to react decisively in real time when it does. Whereas I can see that, if/when Rove starts pulling rabbits out of his hat - Jefferson/Mollohan has been rather quiet, for instance - the Dems will go rigid and stop thinking effectively.

The other thing is: I'm sure that the GOP has planned for losing one both houses - and that their plans don't include a two year pity party.

They can do this (it seems to me) without impairing their ability to concentrate on squeezing out a win in November - which I'm sure they're as hungry as hell for.

They will also - again, my view - be able to view a loss in November as an opportunity: to remove tired warhorses and inject fresh blood, to hone fighting skills, to show fighting spirit and tight organization to those from whom they need the money to fight back in 08.

My sense with the Dems is that they got so used to winning Congress after Congress - in which individual elections could be bloody for the candidates, but not for the Dem parties in both houses - that they do not yet have the mentality for continual total war, in control or out of it, that the GOP has.

Chris's list of snafus (plus the Six Year Itch) may be enough to push the Dems over the winning line this time. But - like the GOP in the 80th Congress - I'd say that they are woefully badly equipped to take advantage of their good fortune.

by skeptic06 2006-10-02 07:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

While I'm inclined to agree that this is likely the final nail in the coffin of the GOP's chances of holding onto the house, I'm going to wait to see the latest polling after these scandals broke to see if voters agree before throwing away that hammer.

And with all these scandals overrunning each other, I can't help but wonder if voters aren't going to just tune out in disgust and scandal overload. Actually, that can only work in our favor. It might not necessarily result in a wave of unexpected votes for Dems, but it'll likely keep more than a few base voters at home and swing voters leaning our way on election day.

As for the senate, all this can't be helping the GOP--i.e. guilt by association--and there's still 5 weeks for yet more scandals to let loose.

Are there any other members of the Wallace family who'd like to come through with yet another blockbuster interview?

by kovie 2006-10-02 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

The Horror Story of Republican demise will hopefully  carry through to a fair accounting via Republican Diebold Voting Machines.

Bush Republicans are giving hypocrisy a bad name.

truthorconsequences
WhiteHouseHypocrisy.com

by truthorconsequences 2006-10-03 12:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

I think it is possible to extrapolate from here to the grave further damage Democratic-led House/Senate investigations will do to Bush.  This will ensure a Democratic presidency in 2008-probably Hillary.  She must be thrilled to death right now.

by Bob H 2006-10-03 03:49AM | 0 recs
All caps means you're shouting

UNLESS THERE IS REAL REFORM COMING IN  NOVEMBER. AMERICANS ARE ESSENTIALLY APOLITICAL.  NEVER CONFUSE YOUR FINGER POINTING AT THE MOON, FOR THE MOON ITSELF.

Q: What's the difference between acne and a republican from florida?

A: Well, Acne normally comes across young boy's faces when they're fourteen....

by heyAnita 2006-10-03 04:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

The Question should not be about mark Foley but when did the House republicans what they knew and when they knew it. Especially Denis hastart the Coverup is always worse than the Crime and this looks like a major cover up

by orin76 2006-10-03 04:51AM | 0 recs
Collapse Imminent ?

It ain't over till the votes aren't counted.

by thief 2006-10-03 06:52AM | 0 recs
Don't say &quot;ours to lose.&quot;

'cause then you know the dems will find a way to lose...it's still a close call, we still have to fight for every seat, there is no sure thing, the wave isn't local....please don't say it's ours to lose.

by David in Burbank 2006-10-03 06:57AM | 0 recs
It is a lack of...

Oversight once again from the Congressional Republicans. Iraq, Abramoff, CIA leaks and now Foley. There is no accountability. Where's the checks and balances? We have got to change the tone in Washington when we take control of both houses.  

by BlueCheese 2006-10-03 08:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

Dream on, deluded Democrats.  There's no way that these Repulico-facists are going to give up control of the House or the Senate.  The sooner you face up to the fact that these idiots don't believe in democracy and will do anything to hang onto power (including stealing the last 3 national elections!), the sooner you'll finally actually do something after they steal yet another election.  Stop kidding yourselves.  Mark my words - these facists do not care about the will of the people.  It's time to start planning a massive protest or something along the lines of Ukraine, because the Democrats will not win at the ballot box.

by nmonster 2006-10-03 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Total Republican Collapse Imminent

I wouldn't get too rosy yet. Dems may win the House, but that scumbag Lieberman is blocking all hope of taking the Senate.

It's looking more and more like Lieberman WILL win and be the decisive vote as to who controls Congress. And you just know he'll LOVE to give the shaft to the Dems. for "betraying" him!

Utterly unprincipled? Sure, that's Joe all over.

He gets a Cabinet post or a Republican committee chairmanship and Cheney gets to cast the deciding vote!

by Cugel 2006-10-03 11:56AM | 0 recs
Rice Resigns?

Rumsfeild should have had to resign hundreds of times and he hasn't.  Bush won't make Condi resign.

by delmoi 2006-10-03 04:52PM | 0 recs
by estebban 2006-12-22 04:04AM | 0 recs

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