"We May Have Just Reached A Tipping Point"

The amount of polling at the House level this cycle seems quite an increase over the last cycle. Blink and you'll miss, jerome

So said a friend of mine on the Hill who up until now has been wary and conservative in his estimates of what's going to happen this November. Four new polls showing strong Democratic gains are making him see that yes, Virginia, there is a tidal wave coming.

These may be the four that Political Wire is teasing.

Sorry to scoop, but these were just too good not to post:

CT-04: Diane Farrell (D) vs. Chris Shays (R-Incumbent)
Head to Head: Farrell 44%, Shays 41%.  Only 24% of voters in Connecticut's 4th district think that the country is going on the right track, while 65% say we're headed down the wrong track and only 21% give President Bush a positive rating for the job he is doing, 77% disapprove. [Bennett, Petts, Blumenthal, 400 voters; October 10-12; margin of error 4.9%]

CT-05: Chris Murphy (D) vs. Nancy Johnson (R-Incumbent)
Head to Head: Murphy 45%, Johnson 40%.  When asked to assess the job that Nancy Johnson is doing, only 39% approve.  Only 32% of voters in Connecticut's 5th district think that the country is going on the right track, while 58% say we're headed down the wrong track and only 27% give President Bush a positive rating for the job he is doing, 70% disapprove. [Grove Insight, 400 voters; October 12; margin of error 5%]

NY-20: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. John Sweeney (R-Incumbent)
Head to Head: Gillibrand 41%, Sweeney 42%.  When asked to assess the job tht John Sweeney is doing, only 35% approve.  Only 27% of voters in New York's 20th district think that the country is going on the right track, while 60% say we're headed down the wrong track and only 25% give President Bush a positive rating for the job he is doing. [Grove Insight, 400 voters; October 13; margin of error 4.9%]

PA-08: Patrick Murphy (D) vs. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-Incumbent)
Head to Head: Murphy 44%, Fitzpatrick 40%.  When asked to assess the job tht Mike Fitzpatrick is doing, only 37% approve.  Only 27% of voters in Pennsylvania's 8th district think that the country is going on the right track, while 66% say we're headed down the wrong track and only 27% give President Bush a positive rating for the job he is doing, 71% disapprove. [Grove Insight, 400 voters; October 15; margin of error 4.9%]

Tags: Democratic gains, House, polls (all tags)

Comments

9 Comments

Re:

Oh, and I believe the tipping point comes at about 6-7 pm election night, when we get a glimse at the early returns from Indiana and Kentucky.

by Jerome Armstrong 2006-10-17 08:20PM | 0 recs
Yes and no

These are nice polls, but they are Democratic internal polls.

Political Wire was teasing about 4 SUSA polls - only one of which showed a Democratic lead, but all 4 showed substantial movement in the Dems direction (several of them are places where the Dems were supposedly completely uncompetitive - like Arizona 5 (JD Hayworth).

by Ben P 2006-10-17 08:22PM | 0 recs
Yes Thank You

There is an independent poll for NY-20 coming this week, I doubt it will be that good for Gillibrand.

by Davidsfr 2006-10-17 08:33PM | 0 recs
Sweeney and Abramoff

Well the Times Union just ran a big Sweeney/Abramoff piece.  Apparently Sweeney's trip to the Mariannas was funded by Eric Rudy, which as we all know, is illegal.  


U.S. Rep. John Sweeney may have violated congressional ethics rules by failing to reveal who paid for a trip he took to a Pacific island with a lobbyist hired by convicted Washington influence peddler Jack Abramoff.

In January 2001, Sweeney traveled 8,000 miles to deliver a speech to the Saipan Chamber of Commerce in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory infamous for its garment sweatshops and prostitution trade. He traveled with Tony Rudy, who had just left the staff of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay to work for Abramoff.

I've been writing about this (or more accurately I've been regurgitating the great work by Dengre at Dkos) but it hasn't hit the local press in any way until now.  And the new twist is that the funding was illegal.  I believe that is what got Ney in trouble (and don't worry, Sweeney is known to be a heavy drinker so we know what his defense will ultimately be).

by democracyinalbany 2006-10-18 04:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweeney and Abramoff

Who is the indy poll by -- Siena?  I think this race is going down to the wire.

by SaratogaProf 2006-10-18 04:54AM | 0 recs
Independent Poll By Majority Watch

They have promised one this  week.

by Davidsfr 2006-10-18 09:46AM | 0 recs
Re:

It is important not to get overconfident. Some polls such as the SurveyUSA poll on Jean Schmidt show the GOP could be making some gains in individual races.

by robliberal 2006-10-17 08:36PM | 0 recs
Don't Like All This Talk of Tidal Wave

I suspect Democrats may wake up after the election and find things aren't as rosy as they appear today. It is important to keep running scared.

by Mister Go 2006-10-18 06:29AM | 0 recs
It's important to keep running hard

Scared, not so much. That leads to panic and bad moves.

Run like we're behind, but within reach if you just power through strongly enough.

by boadicea 2006-10-18 07:02AM | 0 recs

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