House Forecast Update

The new House Forecast is up, and a lot has changed in nine days.

A huge amount has happened since the last update of the House forecast on October 4th. Next week will also be enormous, as new fundraising reports come in, dozens of new polls come out, and the targeting strategy of both committees becomes clear. For this forecast, I have upgraded the situation for Democrats from a gain of 18-24 to a gain of 19-27. For this forecast, I have de-emphasized the importance of money, since the figures I am using for most races will be dramatically altered next week. Here are the specific changes I have made:
  • TX-17 upgraded from "lean Dem" to "likely Dem"
  • WV-01 upgraded from "lean Dem" to "likely Dem"
  • NY-24 upgraded from "toss-up" to "lean Dem"
  • NY-26 upgraded from "likely Rep" to "lean Dem"
  • NC-11 upgraded from "toss-up / lean Dem" to "lean Dem"
  • OH-15 upgraded from "toss-up / lean Rep" to "lean Dem"
  • PA-10 upgraded from "toss-up / lean Dem" to "lean Dem"
  • CO-07 downgraded from "lean Dem" to "toss-up / lean Dem"
  • IN-08 downgraded from "lean Dem" to "toss-up / lean Dem"
  • IN-09 downgraded from "lean Dem" to "toss-up / lean Dem"
  • NM-01 upgraded from "toss-up to "toss-up / lean Dem"
  • PA-07 upgraded from "toss-up" to "toss-up / lean Dem"
  • WA-08 downgraded from "toss-up / lean Dem" to "toss-up"
  • WI-08 downgraded from "toss-up / lean Dem" to "toss-up"
  • MN-06 upgraded from "lean Rep / toss-up" to "toss-up"
  • KY-04 downgraded from "toss-up" to "toss-up/ lean Rep"
  • AZ-01 upgraded from "lean Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • CA-11 upgraded from "lean Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • FL-13 upgraded from "lean Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • IA-02 upgraded from "likely Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • KY-03 upgraded from "lean Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • MN-01 upgraded from "likely Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • NC-08 upgraded from "likely Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • OH-02 upgraded from "lean Rep" to "toss-up / lean Rep"
  • NJ-07 upgraded from "likely Rep" to "lean Rep"
  • NY-03 upgraded from "others to watch" to "lean Rep"
  • VA-10 placed on the board at "lean Rep"
  • CO-05 upgraded from "others to watch" to "likely Rep"
  • IL-14 placed on the board as "likely Rep"
  • KS-02 upgraded from "others to watch" to "likely Rep"
Check it out and, as always, please be my eyes and ears on this one. Where am I wrong? What did I miss? What would you change? I need your help to make this forecast as thorough as possible, although I should note that I really, really like my 19-27 seat pickup range. I think that is dead-on.

Tags: election forecasts, House 2006 (all tags)




If you are downgrading CO-07 because of the Constituent Dynamics poll, you should reconsider.  That poll had a partisan breakdown of 40R/33D/27I that bears no relationship to the actual breakdown of the district.  Note that the earlier poll from this outfit came out with basically the same dead heat result.

Also, it came out this week that while he was head of the Colorado Commission on Higher Education, Rick O'Donnell accepted a trip to Panama paid for by the CBS Network after he caused CCHE to buy a large block of advertising on KCNC Channel 4 in Denver.  This news strikes at the heart of O'Donnell's claim that he is an outsider who will fight for ethics in Washington.

Finally, there is some evidence that O'Donnell's campaign is in disarray.  Yesterday, without explanation, he failed to show up at a union sponsored candidate forum after having been the first invited candidate to accept the invitation to show up.

by Colorado Luis 2006-10-13 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: CO-07
But even if you you grant that, and make apporpriate adjustments, Perlmutter is not blowing O'Donnell away, and O'Donell still has lots mroe money. I'm really waiting for new FEC reports on this one.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-13 09:35AM | 0 recs
Re: CO-07

I guess it depends on what your criteria are.  Every other poll shows Perlmutter up by 6+.  But if you're being conservative with your rankings, toss-up/lean Dem is as good a ranking as anything.

by Phoenix Rising 2006-10-13 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: CO-07

O'Donnell is a more charismatic candidate than Perlmutter and it shows. Given that both candidates are newbies, charisma and first impressions trump almost all else. Barring some unforeseen scandal that gains traction, I'd pick O'Donnell to win (by a hair). Personally, I'd call this one a toss-up right now.

by crazymoloch 2006-10-13 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: CO-07

Are you serious?  Rick O'Donnell's first impression was apologizing for having called Social Security "un-American."  It's been amateur hour ever since.  And Perlmutter is no newbie -- he was a state Senator for eight years and when this district was drawn, it got the nickname "the Ed Perlmutter district."  I'll grant that O'Donnell is more telegenic, but that's it.  I think it will be close -- the 7th always is -- but frankly I will be shocked if O'Donnell pulls this one out.

by Colorado Luis 2006-10-13 11:56AM | 0 recs
Perlmutter by 53-47 using actual Registered

The Constituent Dynamics polling crosstabs, show how strongly the Democrats, Republicans and Independents feel about each candidate. If you multiply the strong & weak Perlmutter supporters by the actual number of registered Democrats from the July SOS data, you get a measure of the Perlmutter voters not colored by the CD voter breakdown. Doing the same for the Repulican side, and the result is a 53-47 win for Perlmutter.

Even after you read the Constituent Dynamics methodology, it is unclear just where and how they apply their likely voter model. Sampling from registered voters who voted in 2002 and 2004, is a reasonable way to estimate turnout; age is the other important driver. But, CD doesn't really explain where they get their 40-33-27 R-D-I percentages (Self-identified? 2002-2004 voting?). As I pointed out before, the actual breakdown is 34-32-34, which suggests that Perlmutter is still okay.

Incidently, the +5 Dem advantage in Jeffco (Western part of CO-07 is surely a typo in their chart.

by MetaData 2006-10-13 11:21AM | 0 recs
Sorrry, 34-32-34 D-R-I

In other words, the Dems lead by 2 points in registration, while CD adjusts their demographics (by likely voters?) to arrive at 33-40-27 D-R-I.

Also, CD calls Jeffco the "central" part of the district, when everyone knows (by looking at the map) that it is the Western part.

Voter motivation favors the Republicans by a point or so, but that is insufficient to change the Perlmutter 53-47 lead by very much.

by MetaData 2006-10-13 11:34AM | 0 recs
NC-08 turning Blue

We've got a little more than 3 weeks to go, a new lead in the polls, Sen Edwards rallying for Larry Kissell tonight, a debate set to air showing Larry kicking some serious Hayes butt, the state Dem party chair stumping in the district all next week and a growing ground game....Toss Up for sure, soon to be Likely Dem!

Oh, and let's not forget Larry's spectacular response to the republican attack ad.  Go Larry!

by working for change 2006-10-13 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08 turning Blue

Larry ought to win just for being one of the only "real people" running for Congress this cycle. I hate that pejorative term, but in it cultural use, I can't think of any candidate that is more like the average person in his or her district than Larry Kissell.

That is a great response ad.

by surfbird007 2006-10-13 10:11AM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08 turning Blue

I came to say upgrade Kissell!!

Latest poll...

Hayes (R) 44
Kissell (D) 51

by faithfull 2006-10-13 11:03AM | 0 recs
Re: NC-08 turning Blue

He is going to be one spectacular congressman. And he will be representing that district for as long as he wants to.

by adamterando 2006-10-13 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

One thing you don't mention in the comments on NY-19 is that Sue Kelly took over Kolbe's job as head of the page committee, just after Kolbe claims to have been approached by a former page re inappropriate email from Foley. It would have been utterly irresponsible for Kolbe not to have mentioned the Foley matter when he handed the reins over to Kelly, yet she claims complete ignorance in the matter.

by snorkel 2006-10-13 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Also --
CQ upgraded the race in the NY-19.

You can read about it here: _connections_to_foley_sc.html#more

Majority Action a 527 with a new ad against Sue Kelly posted here: /125514/23

So please take a look, thanks.

-- MrMacMan

by MrMacMan 2006-10-13 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Heres a dailykos Recommended diary for the NY-19 today. /164841/30

If its on the recommended diaries list -- its time to act in this race.

-- MrMacMan

by MrMacMan 2006-10-13 04:52PM | 0 recs
Chris, in IA-01 Braley has a new internal......

The DCCC earlier this week, on its web site, identified Braley as leading 48-37 in Braley's own internal poll.

BTW, Braley's polling outfit, who conducted that poll, is the firm of Mark Blumenthal, known to we political junkies as the celebrated "Mystery Pollster."

by DCCyclone 2006-10-13 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Chris, in IA-01 Braley has a new internal.....
I'm done with all internal polls for races with recent independent polls.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-13 09:36AM | 0 recs
What about Virginia-2?

Drake vs Kellam? Dead heat according to the latest polls. And man, am I ticked I can't vote in that one... (it was gerrymandered in 2000 I think--my neighborhood is in a safely blue area whose rep is running unopposed)

by eaglehoo 2006-10-13 09:25AM | 0 recs
Ohio Turning Blue Too

I knew things were looking up when the Columbus Dispatch called Ohio a purple state in an endorsement of Strickland for Governor.  Never thought I'd see the Dispatch endorse a Dem for Gov (or Prez) again.  Great news!

by Public Servant 2006-10-13 09:25AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

The San Diego Democratic Party and the Francine Busby campaign are reporting that Brian Bilbray (for CA50, formerly Cunningham)may be facing a Grand Jury for fraud with regard to his legal residence.  

by USAagain 2006-10-13 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update
Taht better break big before the election. If it does, look for that race to move up.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-13 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Bilbray is a freshman, and Busby makes her 2nd run. By the way, Kuhl is a freshman as well.

by micha1976 2006-10-14 03:43AM | 0 recs
House Forecast: Update Objection, your honor!

Your CO-05 analysis is off. Support is still building for Jay Fawcett, the CS Indy endrosed Jay yesterday - even they admitted it was not a gimme for the lefty paper.

And Doug Lamborn's implosions are still filtering through the news-o-sphere. His YouTube deer in the headlights moment was seen 80,000 times.

by zappatero 2006-10-13 09:30AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast: Update Objection, your honor!
But that is a crazy red district. That is why I am also cautious in OH-02, WY-AL, ID-01, KY-04, and TX-17. Those are all crazy red districts.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-13 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast: Update Objection, your honor!

Yeah, even with the current national climate and the fact that Lamborn is a terrible candidate, CO-05 will still be an uphill climb for us.  We are talking about a district that gave Bush 66% in '04, and one where just 22 percent of registered voters are Democrats.

KS-02 seems like it could be closer than expected.

by Tom 2006-10-13 09:50AM | 0 recs
Good endorsement from the Indy

The only thing they left out is that if Dems win a majority, as appears likely, Fawcett's presence on the Armed Services Committee will be a boon to the Colorado Springs area.  In contrast, Lamborn would just be a rubber stamp for Bush even if the R's somehow hold a majority, and if Lamborn were to win the seat under Speaker Pelosi, he would be dismissed as a quack (and rightly so) by the rest of the Committee.

by Colorado Luis 2006-10-13 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

I would only remark on NY-20, where I am.  The one indy poll -- Siena Research -- is not so 'indy' (I used to teach there and know those guys).  They are pretty hardcore R's.  Perhaps it's only wishful thinking, but my sense is that Cook wasn't off the mark in changing it to No Clear Favorite.  One sees, for example, a lot of yard signs of local R's running, and Sweeney's name conspicuously missing.  Chuck Todd on 19/6 showed this race rising to #31.  

I'd like to see NY-20 in Tier 1.5

by SaratogaProf 2006-10-13 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Has anyone seen any new polling for NH-02?  I can't believe more people haven't paid attention to the great work Hodes has done this time.  

by tneeld 2006-10-13 09:40AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Great job as always Chris.  I look forward to your updates every week.

One small nitpicky correction.  For FL-13 you have Buchanan in the race, but your comment references "Bachmann cash."

by wildcat7 2006-10-13 09:46AM | 0 recs

According to the Dan Seals campaign, a new poll will be released in the next couple of days showing this race much closer than the "ancient" poll in your forecast.

For those in the area, there will be a BIG canvassing event for Dan this Sunday. Details here: 6

Please note, the DFA group above is just one of MANY groups involved in the canvas.

by Jim in Chicago 2006-10-13 09:47AM | 0 recs

Wow.  Pretty much the whole of New York's Republicans are in at least a little trouble.  Amazing.  I guess the only exceptions are NY-13 and NY-23.  Any kind of word on the state of those races?

by beeswax49 2006-10-13 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: NY

I can't see NY-23 becoming competitive at any time. McHugh is decently popular and Johnson has run a lackluster campaign, to say the least. His fundraising has also been, well, atrocious.

by mlangenmayr 2006-10-13 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

I do think that OH-15 is a bit optimistic. My personal feeling tells me that it's not quite "lean Democratic" yet, although I'd definetely put it into "toss-up / lean dem"

some very good polls came out of there, but I think generally speaking a lot were too optimistic, especially IA-02, and some were bad, like CO-07 (with the wrong partisan trendlines as noted above). But, eh..

by KainIIIC 2006-10-13 09:59AM | 0 recs

You're too pessimistic on Indiana 8. No poll has shown Hostettler anywhere near Ellsworth. He's got a double digit lead and a huge cash advantage, and WaPo's The Fix said that the NRCC might considering pulling out of there because its a lost cause.

by AC4508 2006-10-13 10:04AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

What about the congressional elections with no polling at all done (as far as we know)? That's the majority.

With the 50-state campaign, we're contesting some seats that have never before been seriously contested. Should I really take heart when a campaign manager tells me they've raised more money than the Democratic candidates in the last 10 congressional elections in this district? Billboards and yardsigns are going up as I type, radio ads are paid for and ready to air, and a gigantic fund-raiser next week is aimed at raising adequate TV cash. And the candidate is solid, not the usual sacrificial lamb volunteering for the sake of party loyalty.

Dare I hope? I've been contributing, I wear my button, and my letter to the editor is about to be published--but do these nationally unheralded, unpolled candidates ever succeed?

This district is like Chris Carney's, except that, as far as we know, the incumbent hasn't beaten up his mistress.

by joyful alternative 2006-10-13 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Why no NJ-05? (Unless I missed it.) Aronsohn seems to be gaining momentum in a race against a genuine nutjob. Increased exposure wouldn't hurt!

by Sidd Finch 2006-10-13 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Aronsohn is a longshot.  I still sent him money, but the district is probably too red to change.  If having a Hastert fundraiser isn't changing things, it's hopeless.

Speaking of Hastert, how is he still 10 points ahead?  Makes no sense.

by cynicalgirl 2006-10-13 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

S-O-H.  Period.

There's a bit of prestige that definitely helps the incumbent.  It doesn't hurt that the usual machine suspects (I'm looking at Da' Mare here in Chicago) are providing their usual non-assistance whenever one of their own are threatened (see, Poshard v. Ryan among countless others).

While this is a collar district outside the city - the Chicago media and machine can still exert tremendous influence in a race... but they're more than happy with their own little corrupt racket - 'you get the burbs, we get the city... now everyone get ready -- LOOT!'.

Daley's long since lost whatever thin shred of hope he had keeping my vote.  Todd Stroger definitely won't - though I'm still undecided as to whether I'll be writing in Claypool or actually hold my nose and vote Peraica.

by zonk 2006-10-13 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Chris, I would temper your ratings--in both directions--to whatever extent they're based on the Constituent Dynamics polls.  At this point, I don't trust them any more than the Zogby Internet polls...and we all know how great they are.  Some of the CD polls are probably accurate...but we have now way of knowing which ones.

Overall, I think your take of 19-27 Democratic pick-ups is defensible...we just probably differ on which ones are the best chances for that 19-27.  

Fwiw, in a fairly evenly balanced district like the CO-7, I wouldn't expect Perlmutter blow O'Donnell away...a solid win, like 6-8 points, yes.

Waiting for Election Day is worse for me than a kid waiting for Christmas...except that Uncle Scrooge can show up.

by InigoMontoya 2006-10-13 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: automated polling

SUSA is also automated and they provide some good background on their decision here: l

by phillydem 2006-10-14 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Wow.  Peter King is only up by 2 points.  I would love to see him go.

by cynicalgirl 2006-10-13 11:02AM | 0 recs
IA-02, you're joking right?


I live in the heart of IA-02, and I really think Loebsack has no chance.  He has had no presence in the district during this campaign at all.  No ads, very little press, even few yard signs.  Leach is an institution here, and probably far enough removed from the Bush Administration to avoid the worst of a wave.  

The main thing that makes me think Loebsack won't win is that Leach hasn't ramped up his advertising at all.  I'm sure he's doing internal polling, and I haven't seen anything from his campaign that looks like he thinks he's in danger.

I really don't trust those Consituent Dynamics polls at all.  There are enough of them that are widely different from any other poll to cast a doubt on all of them (for me at least).

by bawbie 2006-10-13 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: IA-02, you're joking right?
Ummm... maybe you should get involved with the campaign then. Your attitude is defeatist and apathetic.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-13 07:14PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

PA-09th...we're not dead.
Tony Barr is making the Shuster people nervous.

Shuster is getting little support from the local GOP and no support from the RNCC.  The Local GOP is divided by the Eicelberger neo-cons and the Jubelirer ouster and the Foley thing and reports of the Bush's dealing with evangelists has the 'values voter" staying home.

The local Dem Committee has purchased Billboards and radio time and has mounted the biggest Dem GOTV operation seen since Bobby Kennedy.  Tony is greeted with smiles and attaboy's by D's and R's alike everywhere he goes.

There are no numbers to prove it but I say this race is 6 to 5 and pick em right now

by DvilleDem 2006-10-13 11:16AM | 0 recs
Michigan 07 on watch list? or Lean Rep?

There was a poll mentioned in the diaries yesterday, on MI 07 that suggests it should at least move to the watch list with the two other Mich districts.

Odd race.  Wacko wingnut defeats semi-moderate GOP incumbent Schwarz in primary.  Dem candidate ran last time and got trounced, but didn't raise any money.  She seems to be more invested this time, and won a four way primary with >50%.  Horrible name recognition for both candidates and major parts of the district are trending bluer as jobs become scarcer (Battle Creek) or the super blue Ann Arbor (U of Mich) people move out to the burbs (Wastenaw county area of district).  In the middle is ultra conservative Jackson, a town that used to rely on auto industry supplier jobs (Goodyear, Clark Equip, etc.) but became the poor cousin of Flint (Roger and Me) in the 80s.  This district was represented for many years by a Dem (Carl Purcell), until corrupt Nick Smith took an open election.

Polling firm used to work for Schwarz, and paid for the poll themselves, apparently.  It was not commissioned by Renier,  the Dem candidate.

With the seats you've added, did you take some off?  I thought you had a hard 60 seat limit?

by The lurking ecologist 2006-10-13 11:33AM | 0 recs
While we wage battle for a Dem victory

A post-election Democratic House, Senate or both might in theory say no to another war. But if the Bush administration's cynicism is boundless, the Democrats' intellectual vacuity and moral cowardice are equally so. You can't beat something with nothing, but Democrats have put forward nothing in the way of an alternative to Bush's defense and foreign policies. On Iran, the question is whether they will be more scared of the Republicans or of the Israeli lobby. Either way, they will hide under the bed, just as they have hidden under the bed on the war in Iraq. It appears at the moment that a Congressional demand for withdrawal from Iraq is more likely if the Republicans keep the Senate and Senator John Warner of Virginia remains Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee than if the Democrats take over.

There is a great deal of material available to the Democrats to offer an alternative, much of it the product of the Military Reform Movement of the 1970s and 80s. Gary Hart can tell them all about it. There is even a somewhat graceful way out of Iraq, if the Dems will ask themselves my favorite foreign policy question, WWBD - What Would Bismarck Do? He would transfer sufficient Swiss francs to interested parties so that the current government of Iraq asks us to leave. They, not we, would then hold the world's ugliest baby, even though it was America's indiscretion that gave the bastard birth.

But donkeys will think when pigs fly. A Democratic Congress will be as stupid, cowardly and corrupt as its Republican predecessor; in reality, both parties are one party, the party of successful career politicians. The White House will continue a lost war in Iraq, solely to dump the mess in the next President's lap. America or Israel will attack Iran, pulling what's left of the temple down on our heads. Congress will do nothing to stop either war.

Why We Still Fight by William Lind

by ab initio 2006-10-13 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

The undecided vote in most of these polls seems to be 4-10%.  I can't imagine that the undecideds are going to break 50/50.  They seem to be the most likely voters to be influenced by Foley/Corrutpion/Iraq etc.  Many of you are much more familiar with the polling process and I would appreciate responses that help me make sense of what those undecideds really mean.  My gut tells me 4% undecided means at least 3% for Dems this cycle but the voting patterns of America never cease to amaze.  Thanks

by Wesc 2006-10-13 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

I think the undecideds will break close to 50/50. How many left thinking voters are undecided right now? I would guess the undecideds are moderates and soft Republican supporters. And they are unlikely to break hard left. In poll crosstabs this year the undecideds are often majority male. Normally that is reversed, with women often making up 2/3 of the undecideds.

Interesting question, one I've struggled with all year. It's difficult to gauge which previous examples to use to estimate how undecideds break this year. The incumbent rule is also difficult to weigh since so many incumbents are trailing in the polls. IMO they will not be blasted by undecideds. You get a persistent underdog effect and undecideds break in that direction. When the incumbent IS the underdog, undecideds won't break sharply against him. In some cases they might even break in his favor.

by Gary Kilbride 2006-10-13 04:26PM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update

Thanks, excellent points.  Is it possible that undecideds might not vote at all - ie discouraged conservative christian right? Of course that would not help Dems I'm just curious. It makes sense, though, that only someone who really wanted to vote Rep. but is stupefied by their problems could be left undecided at this point.  Rats, would like to see a nice 75/25 break our way.

by Wesc 2006-10-13 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-07

TPM just linked to a McClatchey news report that
the FBI is investigating Curt Weldon for possible quid pro quo in return for Russian and Serbian firm
lobbying contracts for Weldon's daughter.

This isn't a new issue, the 28-yr old daughter's amazing lobbyist income has been brought to light before, but this is the first time there's been a report the FBI and Justice Dept are looking at it.

by phillydem 2006-10-13 03:25PM | 0 recs
IN-08 - Hill and Sodrel on air
I caught the local news today and the RCCC hit most of the commercial breaks with an attack on Baron Hill. According to the ad:
  • Baron Hill is negative campaigning
  • Baron Hill doesn't support traditional marriage
  • Baron Hill doesn't protect our flag (voted against flag protection)
  • Baron Hill is out of step with our values.
  • Baron Hill is too liberal for Indiana.
Finally after the third time seeing the hit piece against him I saw a DCCC add attacking Sodrel:
  • Millionaire Mike Sodrel made millions on his trucking company but this millionaire opposes a minimum wage increase for workers who need it. In fact he said if he had his way he'd abolish it.
  • Mike Sodrel looking out for number one.
  • Baron Hill will help indiana families succeed. Tax cuts for college tuition and child care . Tax relief for working families. Baron Hill, on our side.
by Curt Matlock 2006-10-13 07:37PM | 0 recs
Re: IN-09 - Hill and Sodrel on air
Correction. Hill versus Sodrel is the Indiana 9th not 8th.
by Curt Matlock 2006-10-13 09:51PM | 0 recs
Re: IN-08 - Hill and Sodrel on air

The NRCC must be running the exact same ads in every campaign because the ones I've seen against Sestak, Lois Murphy and Patrick Murphy have been of the same ilk: (insert name) will raise your taxes, is too liberal, takes money from MoveOn, etc. I can't believe the NRCC thinks that old dog will still hunt.

by phillydem 2006-10-14 08:43AM | 0 recs
IL-11, Pavich vs. Weller

With Dem fortunes up it seems like this race should be at least competitive.

I haven't seen any polling.

by Carl Nyberg 2006-10-13 08:37PM | 0 recs

Normally Wilson wins the absentee vote, but this year 69% of absentee ballots are being sent to Dems, including the ones at my house.

Also, if this list were in alpha-order it would be easier to digest.

by KathyF 2006-10-14 12:58AM | 0 recs
Re: NM-1

Kathy, that's an interesting datum about the absentee votes.   Any public link to that?   And is the Wilson campaign making an intensive effort to turn out the vote among Democratic demographics that have voted for her before?

by InigoMontoya 2006-10-14 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: House Forecast Update
Great work on putting together the House Forecast Numbers. I thought it might be useful to see them in a graphic bar chart. Thus I have created a script that reads your numbers and automatically creates a bar chart. If anyone is interested you can check it out here: orecast/
by evan108108 2006-10-14 11:45AM | 0 recs
Re: AZ-05 House Forecast Update

I think it's time for AZ-05 to garner some attention.

Internal polling has Harry Mitchell leading J.D. Hayworth by 3 points.

Visits this campaign season by James Carville, Max Cleland, Wes Clark and others speak to Harry's credible candidacy.

AZ could see a delegation swing from 5-2 Rebub, to 5-2 Dem, what with Giffords expected to take retiring Jim Kolbe's(R) seat in AZ-08, and Ellen Simon leading Rick Renzi in AZ-01.

by Peter HC 2006-10-14 12:08PM | 0 recs


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