BREAKING--New House polls will show looming Democratic landslide

I usually despise blog posts with the word "BREAKING" in the title, in all caps, but in this rare case I actually am the person breaking the story, so I think it is justiifed.

The new Majority Watch from Constituent Dynamics will be released in a few minutes. Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections. It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.

This 19-seat lead will not even include seven competitive, Republican-held districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with "safe" leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with between 19 and 26 more races in the "toss-up" category. This is a looming landslide.

I will have the complete, district-by-district results in this post once they are available. These polls include the first independent results for a number of districts, including many on the netroots page (MN-06, NC-08, ID-01, NY-29 and many more). This is by far the strongest evidence yet of a looming Democratic landslide, and is worth more than every generic ballot released this cycle. This is as close as you can come to actual proof that Democrats are on the brink of winning the House.

Update: Here are the results (PDF). I'll keep adding more as fast as I can. Polls showing Democratic pickups are in bold:
  • NY-26: Davis (D) 56%--40% Reynolds (R)
  • OH-15: Kilroy (D) 53%--41% Pryce (R)
  • NY-24: Arcuri (D) 53%--42% Mieir (R)
  • OH-18: Space (D) 51%--42% Padgett (R)
  • PA-07: Sestak (D) 52%--44% Weldon (R)
  • NM-01: Madrid (D) 52%--44% Wilson (R)
  • NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%--43% Taylor (R)
  • NC-08: Kissel (D) 51%--44% Hayes (R)
  • PA-06: Murphy (D) 52%--46% Gerlach (R)
  • MN-06: Wetterling (D) 50%--45% Bachmann (R)
  • IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%--46% Chocola (R)
  • AZ-01: Simon (D) 50%--46% Renzi (R)
  • OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%--45% Schmidt (R)
  • FL-13: Jennings (D) 47%--44% Buchannan (R)
  • WI-08: Kagen (D) 48%--46% Gard (R)
  • IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)
  • KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 48%--48% Northup (R)
  • IL-06: Duckworth (D) 47%--47% Roskam (R)
  • CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 47%--47% O'Donell (R)
  • MN-01: Gutknecht (R) 48%--47% Walz (D)
  • VA-02: Drake (R) 48%--46% Kellam (D)
  • NJ-07: Ferguson (R) 48%--46% Stender (D)
  • NY-03: King (R) 48%--46% Mejas (D)
  • WA-08: Reichert (R) 48%--45% Burner (D)
  • KY-04: Davis (R) 49%--46% Lucas (D)
  • VA-10: Wolf (R) 47%--42% Feder (D)
  • ID-01: Sali (R) 49%--43% Grant (D)
  • CT-05: Johnson (R) 52%--46% Murphy (D)
  • CA-04: Doolittle (R) 52%--44% Brown (D)
  • IL-14: Hastert (R) 52%--42% Leasch (D)
  • IL-19: Shimkus (R) 53%--36% Stover (D)
Every seat I have listed is held by a Republican and was polled from October 8-10. One Democratic district, TX-17, was also polled. It showed Edwards (D) 55%--38% Taylor (R).

Update 2: That's all of the new ones. Ten more next week, including seven from Republican-held districts (mainly in New York). I am struck by how well netroots candidates are doing. Kissel and Sestak are ahead, outsid the MoE. Walz, Burner and Stender are behind, but within the MoE. Grant is only down six in one of the most Republican districts in the nation. Help them all out.

Tags: House 2006, polls (all tags)

Comments

80 Comments

Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

Holy crap.

by asearchforreason 2006-10-12 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

And, to second that...

Holy Crap.

by Robert P 2006-10-12 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

Awesome. I hope they polled PA-08 again, this time with the proper demographic split.

by PsiFighter37 2006-10-12 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

Kos just posted the link. Very misleading - they only did new polls on some of the races, not on all of them.

by PsiFighter37 2006-10-12 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

I hope they finally included NC-08 in the list.  But, if not, who cares!  If we are close in NC-08, and they aren't even polling it!!!

That can only be good news.

by Robert P 2006-10-12 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

Nope - not good news.  GREAT NEWS!!!!!!!!!  

Way to go Larry!  Spend my $88.94 wisely!

by Bear83 2006-10-12 11:50AM | 0 recs
looming Democratic landslide

This would be the end of the Republican Party. If true, the party will split.

by Cleveland John 2006-10-12 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: looming Democratic landslide

I cry for them.

Oh, wait.  No I don't.

by Nina Katarina 2006-10-12 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: looming Democratic landslide

not a wet eye in the house.

by Robert P 2006-10-12 11:16AM | 0 recs
LOL

No need to cry. We ain't sending Hayes to the pokey. He's just going home, for good, where he can't any more harm.

... although ... ;)

by Leslie H 2006-10-12 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: looming Democratic landslide

Doubtful.  Some might splinter off (the way that Democratic losses and DLC accomodation pushed liberals to the Green party through the late 90s), but there won't be a collapse.  You might see a shift in membership in the Constitution Party, but more likely you'll see the Republican Party "redefine" itself and try to figure out how to come back in 2008.

The real question is what kind of power struggle happens and who ends up on top.  It will be the neo-cons vs. the religious radicals vs. the corporatists.  I suspect that, with their money, the corporatists will once again win - but you never know.  And what happens to W and the Cheney administration if the House tumbles?  I'm not even talking inquiries and impeachment investigations, I'm talking about the party eating itself from within and looking for scapegoats to throw under the bus - the lame ducks in the Oval Office will look like pretty good sacrificial lambs if they get thrashed next month.

by NonyNony 2006-10-12 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: looming Democratic landslide

The religious right will feel betrayed by the fiscal conservatives. They will vote their conscience instead of voting to win. The fiscal conservatives will try to moderate themselves to appeal to independents.

by Cleveland John 2006-10-12 11:26AM | 0 recs
Let's shoot for a VETO-PROOF Democratic Majority!

We need 290 in the House and 67 in the Senate:  http://www.c-span.org/guide/congress/glo ssary/vetproof.htm

Help achieve this goal:  Donate to the DNC, the DSCC and the DCCC!

by Phoenix Woman 2006-10-12 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Let's shoot for a VETO-PROOF Democratic Majori

I don't think it is physically possible to get up to 67 this election.  Nope, 60 is it.

Not that It will even be close, just saying for factual sake.

by Robert P 2006-10-12 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Let's shoot for a VETO-PROOF Democratic Majori

 Just out of curiousity, how many on the other side are on record as supporting the nuclear option? Any guesses as how they'd spin THAT flip-flop if WE tried to use it?

by chaboard 2006-10-12 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Let's shoot for a VETO-PROOF Democratic Majori

All of them at one time or another.  It will be great fun to talk about things deserving a clear up or down vote.

by Robert P 2006-10-14 06:40AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

I hope that our efforts are rewarded with immediate, progressive legislation on the environment, labor and the general welfare (getting our society of the drug called oil.)

If our new Congress waits to move on legislation that is important to us then it will be the LEFT that splits like it almost did in 2000.

Progressives will have the political capital in '07 and it better be spent!!!

by kentuckydave 2006-10-12 10:57AM | 0 recs
FL-13

I hope they polled FL-13, since the last time was before the primary and they ran numbers here using a generic R v D, as opposed to the nominees themselves, which gave a horribly skewed picture in favor of the Republican.

by Jay R 2006-10-12 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: FL-13

FL-13: Jennings 47-44

by NJIndependent 2006-10-12 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

Someone pointed out on Kos a really good result - Mean Jean Schmidt is down 3 to Victoria Wulsin in OH-02. If these Tier 3 races have results like these, who knows what this election could bring.

by PsiFighter37 2006-10-12 11:00AM | 0 recs
Here are a few
NC-08: Kissel 51-44
PA-06: Murphy 52-46
PA-07: Sestak 52-44
NY-26: Davis 56-40
NC-11: Shuler 51-43
OH-18: Space 51-42
ID-01: Sali 49-43
MN-06: Wetterling 50-45
IN-02: Donnelly 50-46
by NJIndependent 2006-10-12 11:00AM | 0 recs
Whoa!

   PA GOP in catastrophic meltdown!  12 point lead for Sestak?  And Sestak has more money.  It's Sestak's race to lose.  Bill Clinton deserves some credit undoubtedly.  Now...how are we doing in Connecticut?

by cilerder86 2006-10-12 11:05AM | 0 recs
8 point lead.

   Still good.

by cilerder86 2006-10-12 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Here are a few
NJ-07: Ferguson 48-46
IL-06: Tie 47-47
KY-04: Davis 49-46
by NJIndependent 2006-10-12 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Here are a few

IA-02: Loebsack 48-47

by NJIndependent 2006-10-12 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Here are a few
Looking good in the 6th. If it's 52-46, there aren't
many undecideds at this point. 52-54% is probably the top end for either party in this district.
by phillydem 2006-10-12 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

BULLSHIT!

Polls are crap.  The only thing that matters is what happens on November 7.  Turnout determines everything.  Nothing has been won.

PLEASE focus.  The news is good, but focus.

by MJPacino 2006-10-12 11:02AM | 0 recs
DOUBLE BULLSHIT
Polls are not bullshit--most of them anyway. They have a strong tendency to be an accruate reflection of current voter preferences.

Not to mentiont ath calling these polsl bullshit is exactly waht Republicans are about to do. Don't help them.
by Chris Bowers 2006-10-12 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

they are good snapshots to let you know where things are. for example, the polls showing that dems want this more than republicans tend to suggest that the turnout on our side will be high. these are good things to know, and I am all for keeping one's nose to grind stone, but it doesn't hurt to hear that things are progressing.

by bruh21 2006-10-12 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show

they are good snapshots to let you know where things are. for example, the polls showing that dems want this more than republicans tend to suggest that the turnout on our side will be high. these are good things to know, and I am all for keeping one's nose to grind stone, but it doesn't hurt to hear that things are progressing.

by bruh21 2006-10-12 01:46PM | 0 recs
A self-fulfilling prophecy

I thgnk I pointed this out a few weeks ago. IN a "landslide" election, the momentum really starts picking up closer to the election, and snowballs.

The side that's winnig gets a positoive feedback loop where all the polls and news, and news coverage seems to be going tehre way, whcih fires thgem up, and motivates them.

The losing side is exactly the opposite. They see the polls, news and news coverage look bleak, whcih demoralizes the, which effects the next round of likely voter screens, etc.

The key is to just keep piling on.

Importantly, there is a kind of bandwagon effect in the media coverage. Every piece of bad news for the losing side gets magnified and placed into the larger "a change is a comin'" narrative.

It gets really bad once the media starts believing one side is going to lose They the  treat them like losers all the time.

That's what is happening now to the Republicans. I think, frankly, barring some crazy, Octyober surprise such a mahjor terrorist attack on US soil, or the capture of Osama Bin Laden, the GOP is literally doomed.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2006-10-12 11:05AM | 0 recs
Reinforcing the Feedback Loop

I'm signed up to phonebank for some Pennsylvania GOTV tonight, and these types of polls are damn useful as a volunteer.  I know that my experience on the GOTV/field drives this cycle have been more fun and better attended than the 2004 cycle.  Part of that is the PA America Votes operation seems to really have its act together (good lists, decent scripts, good structure, good training, plenty of pizza) and part of it is that we're going to win, so listening to the fourth asshole in a row on the phone is a whole lot easier to deal with.

by fester 2006-10-12 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: A self-fulfilling prophecy

Agreed.  100%

by Cleveland John 2006-10-12 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

I don't know much about how polls work, so hopefully someone can answer this. I haven't seen any polls for FL-24 (Clint Curtis vs. Tom Feeney). Most people seem to think Feeney has a lock on it, but with all the seats in play that were previously considered "safe" Republican, I'm dying to know if we have a shot.

by pattyp 2006-10-12 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls

Thanks for this analysis.

Generals are always fighting the last war, as it were.  However, the Foley matter and the forthcoming book, exposing G. Bush as someone who would mock christians and call them names behind their backs, changes everything.  Evangelicals in NC who supported Bush in 2004 are not going to stand for this.  Foley had them staying home.  This revelation will have them actually pulling the levers for democrats.

In 2006 North Carolina, while undergoing this extreme transistion, has other things in our favor.  This election ...is what is called (around here) a  "Blue Moon" election.  In blue moon elections, trends are magnified. The last blue moon election was in 1994, but in the last blue moon election, the parties are reversed.  In the blue moon election, The congressional races are all that is on the top of the ballot. We have no senate or governor or other state-wide partisan races in NC, in 2006.  In 1994, because of the amplification of trends during such races, the republicans feasted. This time,  Democrats are almost certain to pick-up at least two congressional districts, NC-11 and NC-08.

Two other districts, NC-06 and NC-05 don't have the democratic performance of NC-11 and NC-08, but they have something almost better.  Registration that is almost 3:2 Non-Republicans.  NC-06 and NC-05 both  have a great number of persuadable voters, as well as, an overwhelming population of born again and evangelical christians.  These people will vote this election, IF WE ASK THEM.

Wins in these four districts, will put NC back into pre-1994 shape.  The media markets are very inexpensive here.  We just need to support the very fine candidates running for these seats.

by bubbleboy 2006-10-12 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls

Someone with some deep pockets needs to buy ten gazillion copies of that book and start shipping it out to opinion makers on the right. Not the big name folks -- all the pastors of the little churches in Texas and North Carolina. Form a "Concerned Christians of America" group and just send it out with a worried sounding letter attached.

by Joe Gabriel 2006-10-12 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

New Mexico looking good!

It looks like that ten point zogby spread isn't as farfetched as we all thought.

I think with the crosstabs, I'll have some blog fodder for a few days over at NM FBIHOP.

by fbihop 2006-10-12 11:16AM | 0 recs
Every silver lining has a grey cloud

CO-7 was double digit for Perlmutter not to long ago. Other races seem closer than they used to be.  Don't get comfortable.

On the other hand, if Dems retake Congress on these numbers, and there is room for improvement, and there are races that will switch to Dem that are not in this study, and other races that have shown Dem momentum in Districts where Dems should not even have a chance (e.g. CO-05), then a full blown GOP spanking (metaphor - don't get excited Mr. Foley) may be coming!

by magster 2006-10-12 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Every silver lining has a grey cloud

Look at the partisan breakdown they use.  40R-33D-27I.  That is pretty ridiculous considering that the district was drawn to be 33-33-33.  So it is no surprise that both of the polls they have done in this district have shown dead heats while practically everyone else shows Perlmutter with a comfortable lead.

by Colorado Luis 2006-10-12 01:20PM | 0 recs
Likely Voter Model makes the diff

The Colorado SOS July registrations showed 34-32-34 (D-R-U).

Constituent Dynamics polls 1,000 people, which gives them a 3% uncertainty (that is pretty good). Then they select from registered voters who voted in 2002 and 2004, and adjust to account for the likely voters, based on a model that accounts for the fact that this is an off-year election:

Final results were weighted to represent the likely electorate by demographic factors such as age, sex, race and CD geographical subarea.

One might quibble with their likely-voter model, or one might wonder how many new voters have registered since 2002 & 2004.

If the polling is correct, we have to ask whether Perlmutter was the best candidate to represent a Dem leaning, suburban Denver district. I mean, he runs to the moderate (i.e. conservative) wing of the party, which may be good strategy in Western Colorado, but a stronger liberal might be a better candidate in the Metro area.

My biggest question about these results comes after looking in more detail at the registration numbers: CD shows JeffCo partisan ranking as +5 Dem and Adams-Arapahoe at +7 rep. If you look at the July registration you get the opposite partisan likelihood: the Jeff-Co part of district seven is actually 32-35-33, and Adams-Arapahoe is at 37-27-36 (D-R-U). We all know that the U's are less likely in an off-year election, so you have to wonder whether the CD model is not working well.

As they say, the only poll that counts is the actual election.

by MetaData 2006-10-12 07:07PM | 0 recs
TAKE THAT THE REST OF YOU

We've got TWO, count them TWO seats on the big board from NC.  Southern Strategy my eye.

: )

by Robert P 2006-10-12 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

No polling in TX-22, AZ-08 and FL-16 - certain Democratic pickups. No new poll in FL-22 or PA-08. And nothing yet from MI-09 or WY-AL. This is a great poll overall. I'm shocked that VA-10 is so close.

by elrod 2006-10-12 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-08

The Keystone Poll will be polling this race so watch for a poll out on within the next week or so.

by phillydem 2006-10-12 11:39AM | 0 recs
Wolf...hard to believe

Wow, Frank Wolf under 50%...that's hard to swallow.  Everybody around here just loves him.  Must be anti-Bush, that's all I can figure.

by egregious 2006-10-12 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Wolf...hard to believe

Go Judy Feder!  She's a former Clinton Administration health policy appointee and currently heads up the Georgetown University Public Policy Institute (of which I'm an alum).

Needless to say, she'd be a big improvement for the people of VA-10.

http://www.judyfeder.org/

by danielj 2006-10-12 04:29PM | 0 recs
Laesch holds Hastert to 52?

That's the speaker of the house. Wow.

by b1oody8romance7 2006-10-12 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Laesch holds Hastert to 52?

My thoughts too.  What was once a sure thing for Hastert is now a little scarier.  Good.

by Erin in Flagstaff 2006-10-12 11:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Laesch holds Hastert to 52?

Bush only polled 55% of the two party vote in Hastert's district while Denny rang up 68%.  Sounds like the bloom is off the Hastert rose.

by David Kowalski 2006-10-12 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Laesch holds Hastert to 52?

Anybody familiar with the Laesch campaign?  I live in the Chicago area and my parents live in IL-14, and I'm thinking about volunteering for him.

by dbt 2006-10-12 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Laesch volunteers

Do it!  They need volunteers.  This is not some hopeless protest vote, they are in it to WIN.  With Hastert sinking by the day, Laesch actually has a chance.  

Help make it happen!

by egregious 2006-10-12 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Laesch holds Hastert to 52?

Laesch is a great authentic grassroots candidate -- high energy, aggressive campaign, good progressive positions, military experience, brother in Iraq. He was willing to take on Hastert back when it looked total quixotic...

It would be a huge upset if he took out the speaker (but it was also an upset in 94 when Nethercutt took out (Tom) Foley...) Stranger things have happened.

Laesch has been running a campaign on a shoestring... he needs volunteers and money both

Here's his website:

http://www.john06.com/

by terje 2006-10-12 02:40PM | 0 recs
Overconfidence narrative

I'm going to stick to pessimism and my guesstimate of a majority no higher than five seats, if and only if we get it.

The last thing we need is to get those five seats, and have the media asking why we didn't get twenty, and what that means for the yadda yadda yadda.

The media has a trunk full of Democratic narratives just waiting to be pulled out and polished. Stay on target. Stay on target.

by Dan Hartung 2006-10-12 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

AZ-01 has me thrilled. After the primary Simon was only 13 points behind in a poll, which showed it a possibility that she could move closer, but having a 4 point lead at this point is wonderful. I hope Rick Renzi is sweating over this.

by Erin in Flagstaff 2006-10-12 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

Is this really true?  Does Ellen Simon REALLY have a shot?  Please be unbiased, now.

TIA

by jgarcia 2006-10-12 06:46PM | 0 recs
And I keep thinking 1980

...when the Reps beat nine Senate incumbents and won three open seats. They didn't lose a competitive seat.

2006 Feels like another big wave, all right.

Let's go surfin' now; everybody's learnin' how.

by stevehigh 2006-10-12 11:45AM | 0 recs
CORRECTION

Madrid in NM (01) is a D, not an R. Although she Rocks!

by KathyF 2006-10-12 12:02PM | 0 recs
ID-01

This is obviously huge news for us ,.. the first truly independent poll, and the first one showing that the undecideds are making up their minds.

It also comes on a day when the RNCC started robocalls on Bill Sali's behalf and the day after Sali started an attack ad against Larry. Clearly, the GOP is scared shitless in a district where Bush took 69%. If this race isn't a bellwether, I dunno what is.

Thanks to you ALL for your support.

by Julie Fanselow 2006-10-12 12:06PM | 0 recs
Anyone see the movie Spinal Tap
There's a scene where Rob Reiner reads Christopher Guest a fake review of a fake album by the fake band Spinal Tap.
The review for the album Shark Sandwich is a two-word review, and it simply says "Shit Sandwich".
So Christopher Guest turns to Rob Reiner and says: "That's not real, is it?"
That was my reaction to this poll...
That's not real, is it?
lol
by NYMinute 2006-10-12 12:12PM | 0 recs
Go Kissell!!

This is good news for us longtime supporters of future Congressman Larry Kissell, NC-08.

by egregious 2006-10-12 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

I'm wary about these numbers.  The CO-7 is inconsistent with every other set of numbers I've seen.

And I don't like the trend line in some.
WA-08   8/29   Burner 49, Reichert 46
10/12  Burner 45, Reichert 48

There are several of that kind of flip.

I'll be uneasy until the day after the election day shows us with an unquestionable number of seats in the majority.

by InigoMontoya 2006-10-12 12:19PM | 0 recs
WARNING: Be very careful with these poll results.

I can't tell you anything about any of the other races in these polls, but this result --

IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)

-- strikes me as almost completely nonsensical.  IA-2 has been my home district most of my life.  Jim Leach has been my Rep. most of my life.  He's a moderate Republican but nobody hates him.  More here:

http://thepremise.com/archives/09/18/200 6/54

Yes, Leach could lose based on turnout, but I cannot imagine polling showing him behind.  Do you have any other corroborative data?  I haven't seen any polling on this race, and that fact alone makes me suspicious.

If there's anything I'm concerned about at this point in the cycle it's the Republican Party getting Democrats to be complacent by playing dead, hyping bad polls, etc.  They're great at lowering the bar of expectations.  If Democrats are on the cusp of a wave, then working hard is what will make that wave break.  Salivating over questionable polls is a mistake.

by MarkB 2006-10-12 12:33PM | 0 recs
UPDATE: IGNORE THESE RESULTS

Look, I don't know a lot about polling.  but I know enough to know that NOBODY should be hanging their hats on methodologies like this:

Constituent Dynamics was founded to test and implement new techniques to reverse declining response rates. There's no perfect solution, but we're making progress.

Our research shows that short automated polls with concise questions yield significantly higher participation rates. Independent studies of the 2004 election ranked automated polling as the most consistently accurate.

http://www.constituentdynamics.com/about /index.php

Kos should know better than to be hyping this stuff - particularly after his cautionary note recently.

Unless someone can point other polls showing IA-2 a horserace, I think Constituent Dynaics' polls should be ignored until they've proven their methodology rather than their marketing.

by MarkB 2006-10-12 12:39PM | 0 recs
where is IA-01?

I tend to agree that IA-02 is out of reach unless it is a huge Dem landslide.

Did they not poll IA-01? That seem a much better pickup opportunity for us.

by desmoinesdem 2006-10-12 02:37PM | 0 recs
Re: where is IA-01?

That's one of the things that bothers me.  You could make the case for polling two other Iowa House races before ever thinking about polling IA-2 - so what's it doing in there in place of those other races?  Another red flag.

I'm not leveling any accusations here, but if you were a new polling firm with an iffy methodology, one way to set yourself apart in terms of future marketing would be to poll a lot of races that aren't getting other coverage.  After the results come in you can cherry-pick the ones you hit out of the park, then use those results to sell future services.  And that's something nobody should forget: these people do this for money.

by MarkB 2006-10-12 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: so what?
SUSA and Rassmussen are automated polls, too.
I agree with CD that in the age of technology and short attention spans, short, automated polls might really be better. I suspect people are more honest when they're pressing buttons rather than talking to another person. Unlike a person, an automated answering system is not judgemental.
by phillydem 2006-10-12 04:16PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

CQ Politics just re-rated NY-20 from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.  This is my district; I've been doing targeted calling.  Republican women who have never voted in a mid-term cycle are on the list, and I've been getting about a 70% positive response rate from these women.  Sweeney is (and comes off in his ads) as a thug.  Women don't like thugs.

by SaratogaProf 2006-10-12 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

That's great!

by SteveWFP 2006-10-12 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

NY-20 should have stayed at the Lean Republican collumn- NY-20 is a Red District- formerly held by the Late Jerry Solomon who was the Jesse Helms of Upstate New York and I have yet to see any poll numbers which shows a tight race.

NY-29- I expect a close race due to the fact Kuhl is a freshman who was elected with 51% of the popular vote.

NY-24 and NY-26 are likely Democratic Pick-ups.
NY-24 is an open seat and NY-26- Republican incumbent who was re-elected in 2004 with 55% of the popular vote is tied to the Foley Scandal

NY-25- A Republican Held House District which Gore and Kerry carried in 2000 and 2004.

NY-3 and NY-19- Located in the NYC Metro Area.

by CMBurns 2006-10-12 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

The demographics of the district have been changing significantly -- Saratoga County is the fastest growing county in the state outside Manhattan.  Last fall, the Dems swept all the seats in the Saratoga Springs City Counsel.  It's really not the same district Jerry "the Flag" Solomon represented. I think this may be the case with a number of upstate districts.

by SaratogaProf 2006-10-13 05:49AM | 0 recs
NY-03

   Peter King is the incumbent and Mejias is the Democratic challenger.  Mejias is only down three.  I hope this district gets more attention now.  Although there are so many districts in play now it really is hard to focus.

by cilerder86 2006-10-12 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-03

If Mejias is down two to King (which is great news) then I can't wait to see how the rest of the races, Massa in particular, poll.

by SteveWFP 2006-10-12 02:50PM | 0 recs
I warned about this the other day

The polling in wake of the Foley scandal will tilt absurdly in our favor. Similar to the generic ballots with 21 and 23 point leads. Now we've got SurveyUSA showing Brown ahead of DeWine 54-40 and McCaskill leading Talent 51-42. Anyone who has followed those races, or understands the partisan breakdown of those states, realizes those numbers will not hold up on election day. Not even close.

Constituent Dynamics is a new player and I love the high sample sizes, not the puny 300-500 in other surveys. It should lead to accuracy but House polling is more unreliable than statewide or national races. How can we be sure they have accurate or sensible models for each of those districts?

I'll be more enthused if polling like this holds up from other companies, and two or three weeks from now, once the Foley scandal has eased somewhat and the playing field normalized.

It is true that any late breaking districts will be in our favor, which is the awesome dessert. In my district, NV-1, our incumbent Jim Bilbray was cruising to re-election over John Ensign at this point in '94. Mason-Dixon polled Ensign ahead by 7 with a week to go and other polls had the margin even higher. But Ensign took advantage of the perfect storm GOP year and a late breaking scandal involving a land deal favoring a key Bilbray advisor, to come from behind and upset Bilbray by 1400 votes.

by Gary Kilbride 2006-10-12 01:49PM | 0 recs
Correction

Bilbray was polling ahead by 7 with a week to go in '94, not Ensign.

by Gary Kilbride 2006-10-12 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: I warned about this the other day

The results in Ohio ring true.  Here is a quote from the NY Times article yesterday about Pryce, the republican congresswoman from Columbus (OH-15):

"But since Mr. Foley quit, she said in an interview on a tense day of campaigning here, her own internal polls have measured a steady drop in support under the weight of attacks by Mary Jo Kilroy, her Democratic opponent."

She was always polling in the low 40s; the difference is that the undecided voters have started to swing heavily towards the Democrat in the race.
Ditto for Brown vs. Dewine: Dewine's numbers have been stuck around 40% for a year, and the rest of the votes are going to the challenger.

On a more anecdotal side, I live in Columbus (Clintonville, to be precise).  Our precinct was 60-40 Kerry, so it is Democratic but not overwhelmingly so.  No Pryce yard signs in my entire neighborhood within several blocks (or Blackwell, or Dewine).  This was emphatically not true in 2004.

by ohioastronomy 2006-10-12 04:10PM | 0 recs
let's not put all our eggs in one basket

remember how Zogby had us winning in 2004?

by johnny longtorso 2006-10-12 02:33PM | 0 recs
Anybody hear there is a race in AZ -05?

Is JD Hayworth not one of the most reviled members of the House, or is it because he really has little power that this district is continually ignored?

I don't get it.

by TimO 2006-10-12 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls will show looming De

I finally put my convictions to action and donated to several races.  I have NEVER been that passionate about an election cycle as this one.

by MtnFrost 2006-10-12 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: DCCC polls

The DCCC released a bunch of new polls today, too.

http://www.dccc.org/stakeholder/archives /005384.html

by phillydem 2006-10-12 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: BREAKING--New House polls

AZ-01, Does Ellen Simon really truly have a legit shot at beating Rick Renzi?  Realistically?

If so, I think I'm gonna have to cough up a few hundred bucks for her.

by jgarcia 2006-10-12 06:49PM | 0 recs
Texas Stake House

I've just posted a MyDD diary that relates to some of these candidates.

The NYTimes ran a story Wednesday about a new 527, Americans for Honesty on Issues running negative ads against unidentified Democratic House candidates.

I have identified the 9 targeted House candidates, 5 of whom were listed in the Majority Report above and, the sole source of funding for the group.

by gregflynn 2006-10-12 09:03PM | 0 recs

Diaries

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