WV-Sen: Byrd Surges

If these numbers are accurrate, Byrd looks pretty safe. From RMS strategies: (May numbers in parenthesis):
55  (46)  Byrd
39  (43)  Captio
More: The poll, commissioned by The State Journal, was conducted during the week of Aug. 8. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Poll respondents also had a higher opinion of Byrd than Capito and gave the senior senator higher job approval ratings than the congresswoman. According to the poll, 72 percent of residents have a favorable opinion of Byrd, while 58 percent have a favorable opinion of Capito.

In a separate question, 63 percent of residents said they approve of the job Capito is going in Congress as opposed to Byrd, who had a 75 percent approval rating.

Considering the huge shift despite little campaigning, it is hard for me to beleive that both of these polls are / were accurate. Considering that a March NRSC poll showed Byrd leading 52-42, and that Byrd regularly has very high approval ratings in SUSA 50-state tracking, I am inclined to believe that he is actually pretty comfortable here. Capito is popular, but Byrd much more so. Excellent!

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

This is probibly because of the National outrage
about the hurricane. Dems. are probibly better all over the country right now.
by Liberal 2005-09-08 01:27PM | 0 recs
Too early for that
The blockquote says the poll was conducted the week of August 8.
by Crazy Vaclav 2005-09-08 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Too early for that
eh didn't see that interesting than it must have been the backfire from the attack Ad's can't think of much else why Bryd would sour up i haven't heard of him on the campain trail much..
by Liberal 2005-09-08 05:27PM | 0 recs
Principled on the War
The Republicans tried to attack Byrd implicitly on the war, and his opposition. Backfired huge.
by Jerome Armstrong 2005-09-08 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Principled on the War
I dont think Capito will challange Byrd for the seat. Byrd is too popular and there is really no way to attack the man because he is so beloved in West Virginia. The GOP swift-boat mud throwers will only hurt the GOP'S chances of winning if they do that to Byrd. Capito is better biding her time to run against Rockefeller or maybe wait for Byrd to retire in six years.
by AC4508 2005-09-08 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Principled on the War
Yeah but Capito wanted to poll well so that when Byrd dies...and there's a "special election" she will be the front-runner among Republicans and face less primary opposition. It's true the dog may not hunt if Byrd appears solid next year. But then again, she may choose to run even a perfunctory campaign realizing that if Byrd became ill or unable to be elected again...she could find a Democratic Pary scrambling to replace Byrd and ride in to victory like Norm Coleman.
by risenmessiah 2005-09-08 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Principled on the War
It's still a long way until 2006.  If she decides to run, Rove will make this race his baby.  He knows WV has changed dramatically over the past 10 years and he sees an opportunity.  Don't ever count the Republicans out in this state (not saying you are).  If push polling which proclaims that "Kerry wants to ban the Bible" works in this state, anything can happen.
by Eric11 2005-09-08 02:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Principled on the War
Well a non-incumbent Democrat won with like 65% even as Kerry was getting his ass kicked.  I think Kerry was a horrible fit for West Virginia, I mean he was portaryed as to the right of Bush on free trade, if he would have kept up with the "Benict Arnold Corporations" he would have got alot more votes.  Also guns are important in West Virginia and Kerry was also the worst possible canidate in that catogory too.
by Painter2004 2005-09-08 04:59PM | 0 recs
Not surprising
West Virginians are almost as attached to Robert Byrd as they are to the Red, White, and Blue. When he dies they'll probably name a holiday after him in West Virginia. It's even deeper than Strom and South Carolina.

If I were Capito, I'd stay in the House until Byrd resigns, dies, or retires. Then she might have a good chance.

by raginillinoian 2005-09-08 04:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Not surprising
eh if somthing does happen Fmr. Democratic Govenor Wise i think his name was would probibly run. That would be interesting but Bryd will be okay i hope.
by Liberal 2005-09-08 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Not surprising
Actually, there is a huge Democratic field in West Virginia, from Gov. Manchin to Reps. Rahall and Mollohan to a heavily Democratic state legislature. BIG DEM BENCH IN WV. The only heavyweight Repub in the state is Capito.
by raginillinoian 2005-09-08 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Not surprising
i think gov. would be favored though out of them all.
by Liberal 2005-09-08 06:38PM | 0 recs
Wise damaged goods
No way.  Remember, Wise was an incumbent Democrat governor that did not run for reelection.  His affair with a staffer (or someone in govt) had been exposed and nothing was getting accomplished while he was in office.  WV'ns are socially conservative, remember.  The legislature did manage to get a bill passed regulating ATV use on state roads, but even that wasn't well done.  In his lame duck period, Wise did have some good ideas, like consolidating counties that were set up to be "one days ride by horse from the county seat" to help cut some local govt costs, but there isn't much to him.

Manchin is a more powerful force, but he's only slightly to the left of the Bayh Leiberman crowd, so I can't imagine he'll turn many people on here.  He comes from a family with a long history of owning and operating mines, so it remains to be seen how his long term support of labor will be (or the environment).  I don't have much hope there.

The Dems DO have a strong bench though.  Mollohan and Rahal are good.  Rahal would be socially conservative.  Mollohan is N WV's version of Byrd, he brings home the bacon.  Best, IMO, is former governor Gaston Caperton.  His administration was successful.

Rockefeller is untouchable, IMO.  Capito can't beat him.  And his SUSA approval ratings are sky high.

Remember this about Capito--It's Shelley MOORE Capito, as in the daughter of former governor Arch Moore, the same Arch Moore that plead guilty to federal charges of extortion, mail and tax fraud, and obstruction of justice and was sentenced to prison.  Does this matter?  Maybe not, but she does carry some baggage...

by The lurking ecologist 2005-09-09 07:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Wise damaged goods
Eh sorry was looking at it as an outsider looking at numbers. all i saw was state wide winner so heh sorry again didn't relise that.
by Liberal 2005-09-09 01:32PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads