This Hurricane's Implications Are Major

Now, for the last hour or so, I've been scanning all the relevant blogs and news outlets, and it does appear at least in the US that the reality of just how devastating and significant what has happened is sinking in. Before I go on, I want to emphasize that this is not some kind of "garden variety" natural disaster like the hurricanes (even some of the more devastating ones) that hit the US southeast every several years. What is happening is frankly unprecendeted, and will send shockwaves across the US and, potentially, the rest of the world for some time to come.

First, let me begin by quoting the always useful Stratfor (I can't subscribe, because its too expensive, but for those who can afford the $400 a year subscription price tag, it is an essential source on world politics and the global economy) theorizing about what a "worse case scenario" would entail (and, as has in fact unfolded or still is unfolding). I apologize in advance for the length of this citation, but I truly believe the information it provides is vital and is simply not being reported widely enough:

Courtesy of Information Clearing House:

A Category 5 hurricane, the most severe type measured, Katrina has been reported heading directly toward the city of New Orleans. This would be a human catastrophe, since New Orleans sits in a bowl below sea level. However, Katrina is not only moving on New Orleans. It also is moving on the Port of Southern Louisiana. Were it to strike directly and furiously, Katrina would not only take a massive human toll, but also an enormous geopolitical one. The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy. The Port of Southern Louisiana stretches up and down the Mississippi River for about 50 miles, running north and south of New Orleans from St. James to St. Charles Parish. It is the key port for the export of grains to the rest of the world -- corn, soybeans, wheat and animal feed. Midwestern farmers and global consumers depend on those exports. The United States imports crude oil, petrochemicals, steel, fertilizers and ores through the port. Fifteen percent of all U.S. exports by value go through the port. Nearly half of the exports go to Europe. The Port of Southern Louisiana is a river port. It depends on the navigability of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi is notorious for changing its course, and in southern Louisiana -- indeed along much of its length -- levees both protect the land from its water and maintain its course and navigability. Dredging and other maintenance are constant and necessary to maintain its navigability. It is fragile. If New Orleans is hit, the Port of Southern Louisiana, by definition, also will be hit. No one can predict the precise course of the storm or its consequences. However, if we speculate on worse-case scenarios the following consequences jump out: The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial. There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial. About 2 percent of world crude production and roughly 25 percent of U.S.-produced crude comes from the Gulf of Mexico and already is affected by Katrina. Platforms in the path of Katrina have been evacuated but others continue pumping. If this follows normal patterns, most production will be back on line within hours or days. However, if a Category 5 hurricane (of which there have only been three others in history) has a different effect, the damage could be longer lasting. Depending on the effect on the Port of Southern Louisiana, the ability to ship could be affected. A narrow, two-lane highway that handles approximately 10,000 vehicles a day, is used for transport of cargo and petroleum products and provides port access for thousands of employees is threatened with closure. A closure of as long as two weeks could rapidly push gasoline prices higher. At a time when oil prices are in the mid-60-dollar range and starting to hurt, the hurricane has an obvious effect. However, it must be borne in mind that the Mississippi remains a key American shipping route, particularly for the export and import of a variety of primary commodities from grain to oil, as well as steel and rubber. Andrew Jackson fought hard to keep the British from taking New Orleans because he knew it was the main artery for U.S. trade with the world. He was right and its role has not changed since then. This is not a prediction. We do not know the path of the storm and we cannot predict its effects. It is a warning that if a Category 5 hurricane hits the Port of Southern Louisiana and causes the damage that is merely at the outer reach of the probable, the effect on the global system will be substantial. 

Now, of course, Katrina was "only" a category 4 hurricane, but since New Orleans's levee system is (was) at best prepared to handle a category 3, the point is mute right now. Needless to say, the world's 5th largest port - which is a key entrepot in the incredibly stressed world energy market, to boot - has been rendered inoperative. It is anybody's guess when - if - ever it will function again, considering that conservative estimates suggest the city will be uninhabitable for at least a month and most likely longer. New Orleans as the world has known it will never exist again.

Simply put - and keep in mind, I'm only talking about New Orleans right now - a city of over half a million people is now entirely under 20 feet of water. And because all power, electricity, internet access is out and the entirety of New Orleans's government and media have left the city, we really don't know just how bad the human toll is at this point. Needless to say, I think it is going to be at least in the hundreds and quite likely in the thousands. The reason the death toll counts are so low at this point is only because it is impossible to get close enough to the scene to really know, let alone find those trapped. And again, keep in mind, this is only the toll in New Orleans, which actually escaped the center of the original storm.

I don't know much about New Orleans environs at this point, but needless to say much of New Orleans suburbia and the small towns in low lying southern Lousiana are experiencing conditions not dissimilar.

And I haven't even got to the Mississippi coast. Which I will now do. The center of the hurricane actually hit this area, which was part of the reason people thought New Orleans had experienced a "near miss" yesterday. While this area does not have a city the size of New Orleans, it does have a number of small cities which have also been virtually destroyed. For example, Gulfport, which has a population of 71,000. Right now, news reports are saying that as much of 90% of Gulfport has been destroyed by flooding and wind damage. Likewise, the city of Biloxi - 50,000 - was hard hit. So far, we know at least 30 people died there when an apartment building collapsed. As is the case in New Orleans, we really don't know how bad the human and material toll is, but rumors are now circulating that the death toll is "at least" several hundred and quite likely in the 1000s. While Gulfport and Biloxi are not ports on the magnitude of New Orleans, they nevertheless are significant ports located at a key point in the global economy, connecting the Mississippi River to the massive Gulf of Mexico oil and gas fields. And needless to say, these ports aren't going to be operating for the foreseeable future. In other words, the very points that would be counted on to pick up the slack for New Orleans are also inoperable in the near future as well.

And on to Alabama. While Alabama was not hit as badly as Louisiana or Mississippi, it did experience significant damage, with close to a million residents losing power and the port city of Mobile being innudated under 10 feet of water. While only 2 death have been so far reported in Alabama, the infrastructural damage is considerable. In particular, the city of Mobile and its port are likely severely damaged and probably inoperable at least in the near future.

And I haven't even talked about the damage to the oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, which almost certainly will be significantly disrupted in the near future, and probably longer. Reports are now coming in that the initial effect underestimated the damage done. Indeed, to give a hint of what lies in store, an oil company executive discovered during a reconnaisance flight one of his rigs seventeen miles from its original location. I don't think regular readers of this blog will need much help figuring out what the implications of this could be. Indeed, tonight in Seattle, I spied gas stations selling 87 unleaded for $3 - this is the first time in my life I have ever seen this in the United States. Now, Seattle - and Washington state more generally - tend to be on the high side in terms of nationwide gas prices, but from what I saw on my trip to Pennsylvania and Virginia this summer, this isn't far off what the rest of the country is experiencing with probably worse in store. And I'm not even mentioning natural gas.

Here is some useful information on the potential implications, based (again I stress) on only what we know so far from the libertarian Lew Rockwell Institute's blog:

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port is closed. It is the only terminal in the US capable of receiving very large oil tankers, such as those used to ship Saudi or Venezuelan crude to the US. Much of the US Gulf of Mexico crude output is probably shut in right now, and will likely remain shut in for some time to come. Shipping will also be disrupted for a while, too. Refining is also concentrated on the Gulf coast. If a large enough number of refineries are closed -- and stay closed -- gasoline prices will skyrocket.

If that is not bad enough, the Henry Hub in Louisiana is closed too. It is the main -- I think possibly the only -- point where US Gulf natural gas flows into the continental US natural gas network. The folks at the New York Mercantile Exchange are having an emergency meeting about this (the Henry Hub is the price point for NY natgas futures). A lengthy closure will cause problems for traded natural gas.

And could cause a major crisis for natural gas in the US as soon as this week if it closed too long. With all the focus on oil, no one has paid much attention to the fact that natural gas production in North America has been declining for the last several years and, aside from the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, the Alaska North Slope and the McKenzie Delta (the gas from Alaksa and northern Canada will likely not its way south before 2010), there is not enough gas out there to meet rising demand (especially for power generation). Americans are heavily dependent on the Gulf for natgas and oil, and lengthy outages or severe damage to capacity will only tighten the squeeze on energy markets.

Anyway, here is a fairly useful summary from The NY Times about what we know for sure so far. But as I suggest above conditions in the region are currently so catastrophic that we probably won't know the full toll for some time to come.

Let me conclude by saying this: this is a world-historic event that at least in the context of American society is going to be seen as the second most important (one off) event behind 9/11 of the first decade of the new millenium by future historians. While the Asian Tsunami of last December was surely more devastating in terms of human life, I think that in economic terms, Hurricane Katrina is more significant because of some of the reasons I site above. But make no mistake. This is not just an "average" news story.

Tags: Misc (all tags)

Comments

35 Comments

Thanks for the analysis
and presentation.  
by lisadawn82 2005-08-31 04:07AM | 0 recs
by Parker 2005-08-31 04:09AM | 0 recs
Grandma Millie
There are some people who will make a hell of a lot of money off of this... particulary the "Have Mores"...

Remember the Enron Tapes ... hearing the "Have Mores" laugh at the misery of the population in their giddy joy of making millions of dollars.

"They're fucking taking all the money back from you guys? All the money you guys stole from those poor grandmothers in California?" "Yeah, grandma Millie, man." "Yeah, now she wants her fucking money back fro all the power you've charged, right up, jammed right up her ass for fucking $250 a megawatt hour!"

Do you think these same people won't exploit Katrina...?

by Parker 2005-08-31 04:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Grandma Millie
Yes, true to form, Bush has once again placed his corporate cronies first.  Even in the face of this horrible disaster, the only sympathy he can muster is for his pals in the oil industry.

WHITE HOUSE TO TAP RESERVES

Energy Secretary Bodman says U.S. will lend oil to refiners hurt by Hurricane Katrina.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Wednesday that the White House plans on tapping the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help refiners hurt by Hurricane Katrina.

Bodman said in interviews televised on CNN and other networks that officials have not determined the amount of crude oil that will be drawn from stockpiles, but that it would be a loan to refiners.

"The SPR was put in place specifically for this kind of an event," Bodman said in one interview. "We now have, in some instances, problems with getting crude to some refineries."

The reserve is the government's emergency stockpile of crude oil, which is overseen by the Energy Department. The oil reserves are estimated at more than 700 million barrels stored in underground caverns in Louisiana and Texas.

U.S. crude oil prices were 21 cents lower at $69.60 in electronic trading following Bodman's comments. Crude prices had risen over $70 a barrel Tuesday before settling up $2.61 at $69.81 a barrel in New York.

Hurricane Katrina slammed into Louisiana and Mississippi on Monday, halting crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for roughly a quarter of U.S. oil output.

Nine refineries were also closed along the coast due to the storm, Reuters reported Tuesday.

An official announcement on the reserve release is expected later this afternoon, Bodman said.

by Parker 2005-08-31 05:29AM | 0 recs
Natural Disasters
Another wake up call from God.

The South Asia earthquake and tsunami disaster relief efforts have been slow and steady.

Will Bush's response to this disaster be as slow and petty as his response to the recent tsunami?

Perhaps the greatest political blowback will be caused by how disgustingly self serving the energy bill looks two short weeks later.

Is anybody ready for a renewed debate on renewable energy and The Apollo Project?

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-31 04:45AM | 0 recs
In the final analysis
you must really care about the people. Otherwise why would you be breaking your balls trying to get them to stop hitting themselves on the head with a hammer. They voted for Bush; they were told by Gore, Clinton, Kerry and Edwards and a whole host of other people what would happen if they did. It has happened. I guess I applaud you for caring about the well-being of the people. I see them as a danger and a disgrace. The founders are spinning in their graves.
by Paul Goodman 2005-08-31 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: In the final analysis
You are one weird dude.
by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-31 10:22AM | 0 recs
Copyediting reflex
Thanks for the important rundown.

Tiny correction: the point is "moot" as in moot court, not mute.

by quihana 2005-08-31 05:08AM | 0 recs
Thanks, but...
This is an excellent and compelling analysis, and I appreciate the opportunity to read and consider the implications you describe from this awful tragedy.

However, for me it just feels too soon and too petty to talk about economic and political impacts.  I used to live in New Orleans, and I know people there, but even if I didn't, I'd still feel uncomfortable worrying about long-term impacts to my wallet or to the global economy.  People's lives have been destroyed beyond recognition.  For now, I want to focus on them.

Don't take this as a criticism of your post or as an attempt to stymie continued discussion; it's just a personal reaction.  I am so sad right now.

by nocloset 2005-08-31 07:28AM | 0 recs
New Orleans Need Redesign
New Orleans needs to be redesigned with all the silt being channelled out to the Gulf diverted and used to build up natural levees. They could start in Lake Pontchartrain. Divert silt-laden waters into the lake, and allow a natural buffer to be built up.

The lower Mississippi needs to be replumbed to take advantage of millions of tons of silt that used to be deposited in the delta swamps, building up new land, but is now going out to sea.

The Industrial Canal should be closed, since it clearly jeopardizes the city. People have to think about what they want New Orleans to be and how it can be maintained sustainably.

by mysteve 2005-08-31 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: New Orleans Need Redesign
We know one thing: it will no longer be one of the most uniquely charming cities in America, and one of the most "unAmerican" in tone, ambience and architecture.
by barbwire 2005-08-31 08:08AM | 0 recs
Nonsense...
Sorry but that is nonsense... there is no way humans can 'redesign' the delta to form levees using the silt in the river. Besides a lot of that silt is stuck up in Lake Oahe and Lake Sakakawea and other resevoirs way,way,way upstream... like in So Dak & No Dak & Montana...

It is locked up there for all practical purposes... FOREVER...

A more natural watershed starting at about Lake Itasca and working its way down, with removal of most of the unessential levees & dams would be a HUGE plus... then the delta restoration wouldn't need a lot of human intervention... the delta might actually start growing again instead of shrinking.

Only provide levee protection at a few high value locations... St Louis, Memphis, NO... let the farms & small towns in the flood plains flood... if they don't like it, move. BTW I live in one of those river towns... but I live 200 feet above the river, a luxury only high rise condo dwellers in NO have available to them... folks in the flood plain where I live understand the risk... the price they pay to see eagles almost everyday. Folks in the flood plain lower downsteam have to be reminded of this also. Unfortunately it often takes storms like Kat to jog our collective memories.

If humans are to 'engineer' anything in the river... it should be to find a more environmentally friendly way to maintain a shipping channel without completely screwing everything else up... including the natural flood cycles that deposit so much of the silt and even more importantly SAND that allows the delta to grow.

by dryfly 2005-08-31 10:02AM | 0 recs
I Cover the Port of Los Angeles
and, to a lesser extent, the Port of Long Beach. Combined, we are the nation's leading container port. We've been saying for years that the ports are woefully under-protected and undervalued in general in terms of their importance and vulnerability. There are minor earthquake faults in the area, but a major concern since 9/11 has terrorism. We know it's not a major type target--it's no kind of cultural symbol--but LAX has been targeted, if LAX is targetted again, targetting the Port as well could certainly be a possibility. So the neglect and disaster that has befallen New Orleans comes as no surprise, unfortunately. It could easily have been us. It still could be.
by Paul Rosenberg 2005-08-31 08:07AM | 0 recs
Katrina's Real Name
Katrina's Real Name = Global Warming

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2005/08/30/katrinas_real_name?mode= PF

Until we get really serious about addressing this issue, we can expect more weather extremes, with major impacts on the US and global economy.

The longer that we wait to start the corrective measures, the longer it will take before we can expect to start seeing any improvement.

by LindaHewitt 2005-08-31 08:36AM | 0 recs
New Orleans was doomed long ago.
An excellent description of the problems created by channelizing the lower Mississippi was written in 1990 by John McPhee in "The Control of Nature."  I recommend this book.  It is excellent.  Massive flooding was bound to happen at some point, either from severe local rain, or from severe rain upstream.  Katrina provides both and as the majority of the midwest continues to get rainfall from the storm, this rain will continue to pour into NO, notwithstanding the 3000# sandbags.

As an ecologist, I would caution everyone about blaming everything about this year's hurricane season (and droughts, and snowstorms, etc.) on global warming, though it is likely to be partially responsible.  Hurricane frequencies tend to cycle for multiple decades, the data we have over the last 300 years supports periods of high and low frequencies.  The late 1890s to 1930s was a high period.  We are currently in another high period.  Warmer waters will certainly fuel stronger hurricanes.  The intensity of the hurricanes we have seen recently may be related to global warming, but we had very intense hurricanes in the past as well (e.g. Galveston storm in 1900), and our record of the intensity of hurricanes in the past is poor because our ability to measure them was crude.  Similarly, we have had periods of extreme drought in the past, and unusual snowfalls, etc.  Remember too that the damage wrought by Katrina is as much a function of where humans have settled as the strength of the storm--a less populated area results in less damage.

Climate is an average, but weather always can swing to extremes.  Having said that, one might ask, "Will warmer temperatures globally exacerbate weather extremes?"  I believe the answer is yes and scientific models and projections seem to support this conclusion.  But, we should be careful to render unto Caesar (global warming) what is truly his: the intensity of Katrina, maybe; the frequency of hurricanes this season, possibly;  stong, intense hurricanes in general, no.

Does it matter if we are careful in our attribution of cause?  Yes, as soon we blame Katrina on global warming, someone will look in the history books to find other intense hurricanes which occurred in the past before we were worried about global warming (e.g. in the Atlantic:  Gilbert 1988, 888 mb, Labor Day hurricane in 1935, 892mb; Allen 1980 and Camille 1969, 190mph winds; 42' storm surge in Australia in 1899; source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/tcfaqHED.html) Then the rightwing will accuse us of inflammatory rhetoric and erode our credibility.

by The lurking ecologist 2005-08-31 03:57PM | 0 recs
Hurricane GW?
Works for me.
by catastrophile 2005-08-31 04:35PM | 0 recs
Port of Southern Louisiana

is not necessarily damaged to the degree that New Orleans itself is. We really don't know much about it since coverage has been more directed toward the tragedy in the city itself. Also haven't heard anything about the shape of the offshore platforms.
by TrainWreck 2005-08-31 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Port of Southern Louisiana
You could be right. But even if the port is open - which would be significant - it still needs power, the Mississippi needs to be OK, it will be isolated because of the only road servicing it was destroyed. And will the oil and gas refineries need to be rebuilt? If so, how many?

Ben P

by Ben P 2005-08-31 11:19AM | 0 recs
Century storm
America vs Katrina - the nation responds

I have posted some stories about how the Red Cross is mobilizing across the nation in response to Katrina. It has their link for your donations of cash or expertise to the recovery effort.

Aside from the politics, millions of Americans have already been negatively effected and Katrina will undoubtedly impact all of the rest of us in the coming days and months. From petro price increases to mass population and employment dislocations in never before seen orders of magnatude for American society, this event will change America. Contact the Red Cross now and be a part of positive outcome from Katrina the 21st century's century storm.

One nation
under law
Indivisible
With liberty and justice for all
by aahpat 2005-08-31 01:11PM | 0 recs
Thank you
Thank you I am learning of new things all day! And it is good to know of my RSS already work. I think I need add button of RSS to make this thing clear. But more work to do!I l o v e y o u
by yxdown 2005-08-31 06:52PM | 0 recs
The Scope is Simply Amazing...
I apologize for the blatant blogwhoring, but for a little different angle on this from the energy/oil/gas perspective, I hope that you will consider these two pieces from our blog The Oil Drum.  

The first is the post that made it around the 'sphere about an insider report of the damage from about two days ago (that was partially confirmed yesterday by the AP):

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/31/83553/8973

and the second is an integration of ideas about the energy side of this human tragedy...

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/31/124723/302

It's a lot worse than we've been told on the energy front...and this isn't from a bunch of kooks, but from a band of academics trying to get the word out about peak oil.  I hope you find the information worthwhile.

by profgoose 2005-09-02 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: This Hurricane's Implications Are Major
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by hren4 2007-10-16 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: This Hurricane's Implications Are Major
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