McCain Tops First NH '08 GOP Primary Poll

This one isn't really too surprising as McCain won the 2000 primary in the state 49-to-30% over George W. Bush. But it is interesting to see where GOP primary voters in New Hampshire are leaning this far out. It's also interesting to see what ARG is assuming the candidate slate will look like, even if the numbers don't mean too much.

2008 NH GOP Primary - American Research Group

John McCain - 39%
Newt Gingrich - 14%
Mitt Romney - 8%
Bill Frist - 5%
George Allen - 1%
Tom Tancredo - 1%
Sam Brownback - 0%
Chuck Hagel - 0%
Mike Huckabee - 0% (The Union-Leader story called him 'Mark'.)
Undecided - 32%

The most notable omission here is Rudy Giuliani, who polled second to McCain in the most recent Gallup poll among national GOP primary voters. Interestingly, a notable omission from that poll was the man who polled second to McCain in this poll, Newt Gingrich.

According to the Manchester Union-Leader, ARG "is expected to have a Democratic poll soon."

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)



Newt will be the consensus candidate
The right wing knows and loves Newt. Wall Street Republicans know Newt is on their side. After his sabatical Newt can run as a kinder, gentler compassionate conservative. That's why Newt is playing footsie with Hillary. They are using each other for crass political purposes.

Newt will be the Republican nominee.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-11 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Newt will be the consensus candidate
it is spoken...
so sayeth Gary.
by NCDem 2005-08-11 10:51AM | 0 recs
Another possibility:
"They are using each other for crass political purposes."

I thought maybe Hill was getting back at Bill for Monica. Y'know, show him how it feels to have your spouse making time with some troglodyte.

I don't think Newt's like the present ruling cabal; he's been openly critical of the regime for some time, though he's definitely ramped it up some lately. He's called on the State Department to spend more time propagandizing making our case to the world, whereas the neocon approach remains basically: "F@ck you, we're America!"

I'm sure Newt wants to be on the right side of the popular revolt he sees coming, for pragmatic reasons, but I also think he may recognize how excessive these corporatists are, now that they're off the leash.

by catastrophile 2005-08-11 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Another possibility:
Newt has been standing up for alot of issues that are really starting to strike home. He stated outright that the republicans could own health care as an issue, lobbied hard for health care reform (I think the conservative position here is, why do we pay 25.00 for a bottle of +water+ when we're in the ER ... ). Very, very strong conservative tendencies myself - as any good person in the software business should (after all, knowing what we all know about what software can do,why do we have major government agencies doing it at all, classic case: federal reserve bank) drive me to watch carefully what Newt is up to. So Newt polling up in 14 percent at second place is significant. I think we should all disabuse ourselves of the notion that some party somewhere really represents our interests, first - then work like the devil to find the right person. Hillary in 08, no thanks. I just won't vote for her - she did an awful job the first pass through in healthcare, she can't seem to keep her husband or her family intact, she's an obvious granstander. I'm just not excited about her - I don't have any confidence in her at all as commander in chief during wartime, either. Not to say I'm happy with Newt, that whole Monica thing strikes hard against  common sense - never ever pay 20 million dollars for kinky sex.  

McCain on the other hand, well, if he runs  - lets put it this way - he's going to have to do better than base his entire platform on campaign finance reform like he did in 2000.

You see, for me, its always - why do we have mind-numbingly bad choices for president? Where are the Ronald Reagan, the Harry Trumans, the Thomas Jeffersons?

Here's hoping a dark horse shows out of either party in 2007 that gets us all moving in the right direction to crush BOTH parties and their multibillion dollar advertising plans.

by turnerbroadcasting 2005-08-12 03:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Another possibility:
About Newt, he has a long history of co-opting popular revolts and channeling them back into support for the conservative right.  That's really what the "contract on America" was all about, co-opting the Perot voters, the term limits movement, the throw the rascals out movement, and popular outrage over Brady, Waco, and Ruby Ridge.  Newt pulled it off in 1994 with the help of a growing right wing noise machine.  All the popular outrage that was brewing in 1990-92, and arguably was a factor in helping defeat the first Bush regime, wound up being channeled into moronic Hillary bashing, anti-environmentalist and anti-union demagoguery, and working class people turning out in large numbers to vote their class enemies, the Republicans, back into office two years later.

I wouldn't be surprised if Newt tries to co-opt today's popular outrage over the Bush regime and possibly even the Iraq war.  It would certainly fit his style and his past history.  No matter what Newt says he thinks about Iraq or Bush policies, his record is that of a movement conservative idealogue whose role is to co-opt and channel populist outrage into support for the party responsible for the outrages in the first place. He is not to be trusted.

by ACSR 2005-08-12 08:31AM | 0 recs
also oddly missing
George Pataki
Rick Santorum
by Adam B 2005-08-11 10:58AM | 0 recs
Approvals for potential candidates
With Woodward suggesting Cheney as the probable GOP nominee...Let's look at recent approval ratings for some of the top candidates...oh and cheney..


Clinton: Approve: 53% Disapprove: 43% (07/28/05)
Kerry: Approve: 42% Disapprove: 48% (07/28/05)

McCain:  Approve: 51% Disapprove: 22% (07/28/05)
Giuliani:Approve: 64% Disapprove: 19% (07/28/05)
Frist: Approve: 28% Disapprove: 47% (06/12/05)

Cheney:  Approve: 48% Disapprove: 44% (06/26/05)

Let's hope for a Clinton - Cheney fight... ahh that sounds nice.  

And just to give everyone a smile:  

Bush's Rating:  Approve: 45% Disapprove: 51% (08/07/05)

by schweiz8 2005-08-11 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Approvals for potential candidates
After posting this: We are a little confused on what job exactly people are approving of Giuliani...considering his current job affects corporations more than grandma.  

"Giuliani Capital Advisors LLC will advise companies on acquisitions, restructurings and other strategic issues"

by schweiz8 2005-08-11 11:12AM | 0 recs
Cheny wins against Hillary
The American people will never elect a woman CinC during wartime. If only 5% of Hillary's supporters are turned by doubts about whether a woman can give orders to Four Stars and the Joint Chiefs, the election is over.

The M$M woulld turn it into a horse race between Vice President Gravitas and Bill's unqualified wife. The M$M attacks have already started. The numbers in your poll would show a 5% reversal for both Hillary and Cheney based on image alone.

by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-11 06:16PM | 0 recs
Gov. Mike Huckabee
Did they actually call him "Mark" in the poll? Talk about poor name recognition - not even the pollsters know his name.
by ScottC 2005-08-11 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Gov. Mike Huckabee
HA! That's too funny. I just cut and pasted the names straight from the Union-Leader story. I was surprised Huckabee didn't perform better in the poll (same with Hagel, though McCain probably takes whatever he'd get), but I didn't even notice the name screw-up. He can't blame his poor showing on the poll, though -- the ARG website does indeed have him listed as Mike.
by Scott Shields 2005-08-11 11:17AM | 0 recs
I suspect that Hagel will usurp McCain's following because John knows that as long as Tom DeLay is alive he will stop at nothing to keep McCain out of the White House. After all, if John did go to Washington he'd flush out all the corruption he's seen working in Arizona with the Indian gaming that the Republicans are growing rich off...

Still the message McCain would send is powerful and if Hagel catches the lightning in a bottle, he'd probably take down Hillary.

by risenmessiah 2005-08-11 12:56PM | 0 recs
McCain is a whore
I think Dems are missing a real gem with McCain.  Just pound the guy.  Strap him right down to George W and the war.  Strap him down to his whoring for W in the 2004 campaign.

Rub McCain's face right in his own opportunistic shit.

by jcjcjc 2005-08-11 09:10PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain is a whore
True but if McCain elects not to run but gets Hagel to run in his place...there's still the chance that people will buy the maverick, clean-up-Washington schtick and stick it to Hillary Inc.
by risenmessiah 2005-08-12 01:32PM | 0 recs
Any GOP maverick
Is going to have to run anti-war.
by jcjcjc 2005-08-12 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain is a whore
Doubt it. The great thing about religious fanaticism is how useful it is to control the masses. It's been done for thousands of years, most effectively by the catholic church. The religious right will steer their peasants into supporting a candidate they feel will build on the gains made by Bush.
by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-12 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain is a whore
I know it seems hard to believe now, but three years is a long time for the situation to change.
by risenmessiah 2005-08-13 07:39PM | 0 recs
Huckabee isn't out there
In fairness to Huckabee, who is my darkhorse bet for the GOP nom (based on the classic "if you don't know shit, pick a southern governor" theory), he hasn't done much to raise his profile yet.

But, how many Americans knew or cared about Howard Dean and John Kerry in August 2001?

Not many, I'm apt to bet.

I give them credit for trying to think outside the media's box of celebrity worship.

by jcjcjc 2005-08-11 09:06PM | 0 recs
Duly Newted
I'm actually really surprised that Newt is beating Mitt in New Hampshire.  I just that just goes to show what near-universal name recognition can do for a candidate.
by sco 2005-08-11 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Duly Newted
Believe it or not, Romney gets beaten by McCain in Massachusetts. In fact, there are even more undecided GOP primary voters (26%)in MA than voters in support of Romney. He's got Gingrich beat by a mile at 22-to-4%, however.
by Scott Shields 2005-08-11 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Duly Newted
Do you mean among Mass GOP voters, because I don't think that Mitt could carry the state as a presidential candidate.

Oh, and I don't think he's running for Gov. anymore, after he announced in the Globe that he doesn't support Roe v. Wade.

by Abby 2005-08-11 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Duly Newted
Actually that doesn't surprise me at all.  Even the MA Republicans are getting tired of Mitt.  He was supposed to be their savior in 2004 and win them some seats in the legislature, but that blew up in his face.  Now he's further to the right than most of them and they see him as the opportunist he is.

Course, they'll still vote for him if he runs again for governor, but that's looking less and less likely.

by sco 2005-08-11 02:45PM | 0 recs
Ok, what are the real odds of Newt coming out of psuedo-retirment to run in 08?  I would compare that to putting BILL Clinton or Al Gore on our polls, yeah, great people love em, are they gonna run, probably not.  Just ask Michael Jordan what happens when you come out of retirement, it's never really the same.
by Pitin 2005-08-11 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Newt?
You mean what with the three championships and all? But anyways, Newt is far too crazy to win the Republican Nomination. The moderates have been way outpolling the hard-core conservatives so far, so does the religious right not have all that much influence or will they become a bigger factor come primary time? And doesnt it seem as though McCain and Guiliani might be sipping from the same pool a little bit? I think that might open the door up to a guy like Allen...
by AC4508 2005-08-11 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Newt?
Newt is too crazy compared to who? Newt is almost a left winger compared to the theocons. If Newt runs he will run as a moderate. That's why Newt and Hillary had their little photo op a couple of weeks ago. Both of them are already running towards the middle.
by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-11 06:10PM | 0 recs
He's running
He wrote a book and has been seen in New Hampshire and Iowa waaay too often to not be.
by Geotpf 2005-08-11 04:07PM | 0 recs
Now that's just freaky
by Pitin 2005-08-11 05:05PM | 0 recs
Newt has more baggage and skeletons than anyone

He's never run for anything but a safe GA CD.
by Cyt 2005-08-11 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Newt has more baggage and skeletons than any
Actually I think Newt lost a senate race back in the 70s in GA.
by Painter2004 2005-08-11 06:30PM | 0 recs
Interestingly ...
Most of these candidates have made few trips to New Hampshire, one or two at most.

As well, Tancredo has made more trips than most; although, he is perceived as very extreme - although, I seen and heard worse.

Also, the Gingrich numbers are really intriguing because he has only been here once, for three days, to promote his book. As well, there is still bad blood when he and Clinton went through that whole government shutdown/playing chicken thing back in the mid-1990s. Despite the perception that Republicans are "anti-big government," a lot of Republicans have family members who rely on assistance, whether it is VA benefits, heating subsidies, or whatever. It backfired on Republicans here when Gingrich went on that tear and they almost lost seats.

In the Senate race in 1996, Rep. Dick Swett was within 15,000 votes of beating an incumbent Senator, Bob Smith, at the time, a solid leader with strong ties to the environmental community.

That same year, John Sununu, the son of a popular former governor, barely won the open CD1 seat by 8,000 votes.

by politizine 2005-08-11 06:10PM | 0 recs
democrats can beat anyone
if we stick together as democrats. anyone can beat mccain. he's not that popular anymore.
by Commander in Chimp 2005-08-11 10:32PM | 0 recs
Re: democrats can beat anyone
Actually McCain is quite popular still with the middle. I consider him the anti-Hillary and the only candidate that can -- and would probably -- beat her in a general election. He has too much crossover appeal to moderate democrats while Hillary has a very liberal history.

I don't think he'll get the nomination though. The religious right controls the GOP and won't allow it. Not after they've been spoiled under 8 years of Bush.

by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-12 08:37AM | 0 recs
Al Gore will crush any of those goopers in 08!
by greyfox 2005-08-12 02:06PM | 0 recs
by Vote Hillary 2008 2005-08-12 04:39PM | 0 recs
There are gaps in this poll.  They don't have the all important Guliani.  He lives right next door to New Hamsphire, in New York.  I think the person who can beat McCain is Guliani.  The religious right can't deal with McCain, but they would put up with Guliani.  Even if McCain wins in New Hamsphire, he is vulnerable in South Carolina where his campaign fell apart last time.  This is where Guliani or a Jeb Bush or a Bill Frist can make their mark and win the nomination.
by mleflo2 2005-08-12 11:21PM | 0 recs


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