Out Of Touch
by Chris Bowers, Tue Jul 05, 2005 at 06:57:19 AM EDT
"If you had to choose, which do you think is better? For the U.S. to keep a significant number of troops in Iraq until the situation there gets better, even if that takes many years. OR, To set a time-table for removing troops from Iraq and to stick to that timetable regardless of what is going on in Iraq at the time." Options rotated
No timetable 48 Stick to timetable 49ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 23-26, 2005. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults). Fieldwork by TNS
"Do you think the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties; or do you think the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there?" Options rotated
Stay 58 Withdraw 41Associated Press/Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. June 20-22, 2005. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
"Should the United States keep troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or should the United States bring its troops home from Iraq immediately?"
Stay in Iraq 59 Bring Home 37Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. June 8-12, 2005. N=1,464 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?"
Keep Troops 50 Bring Home 46No matter how this question is phrased, there are clearly large numbers of Americans, ranging anywhere from 37-49 percent of the population, who are in favor of withdrawal. However, these questions were all vague in terms of time, and did not offer any specific dates. Look at what happens when an actual date is introduced into the question (emphasis mine):The Harris Poll. June 7-12, 2005. N=1,015 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there OR bringing most of our troops home in the next year?"
Wait for Stable Govt 33 Bring Home in Next Year 63Once the generalities of "As soon as possible" and "as long as it takes" are removed from the question, the public is overwhelmingly in favor of withdrawal. In fact, Harris finds nearly a supermajority in favor of withdrawal within the next year.
In the face of this, what do we find from "insiders" of both parties? Nothing but opposition:Should the Bush administration set a timetable to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq?
Poll of 80 "insiders" Yes No Republicans 0 42 Democrats 13 24Go to the actual poll and read the comments from the insiders--they are enlightening. Not a single one is concerned with what the American public actually thinks about Iraq.
It is stunning that not a single Republican is willing to support this idea. It is depressing that not many Democrats are either, even though the vast majority of people who actually vote for Democrats are in favor of withdrawal / timetable. If there is going to be a major third party challenge in 2008, it is going to be because no Democratic presidential candidate had the guts to actually stand up for what the actual people who vote for Democrats believe in.
I imagine that right now that many potential Democratic candidates are trying to figure out how they can use the blogosphere and the netroots to help their campaigns. They are probably sifting through primers on terms like podcast, blogosphere, unique visit, Civic Space, and other such things. As someone who is quite familiar with all of these terms and new institutions, I can best sum up for any candidate exactly how they can receive the most potential benefit from the netroots in 2008: come out in favor of withdrawal. If you do not do so, do not expect much support or excitement, period. It really is as simple as that.