UK Elections Poll

I've put up a poll about the UK elections. I myself have not decided whom I would support yet (hint: it ain't gonna be the Tories). As both a union organizer and as someone who spent a decent amount of my one-year in Britain (`94-`95) working on politics, it pains me to have to consider the Liberal Democrats so strongly. To help you make up your mind, here are the websites for the Conservatives, for Labour, and for the Liberal Democrats. Also, Ben P posted a useful primer on UK politics a couple months back.

I gotta do something about raising my profile. As a former political activist in Britain and a current election blogger, I sure envy kos for getting a trip to the UK to write about the final week of the election.

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)



I Think Tories Are Going To Win
I know this is against conventional wisdom, but I think the Conservative Party is going to win.  Unlike in the US, the media in the UK is active enough so that people there understand what a dishonest poodle Blair is.  Oddly enough, they seem to resent it.

The only thing that might keep Labor in is if the Liberal Democrats do real well.  That will split the anti-Blair vote.

Interstingly enough, if Labor had done the right thing and replaced Blair with Brown, they would be coasting to another landslide.

by Andy Katz 2005-04-04 03:38PM | 0 recs
for those of you looking for some data on the election, may I offer this site:

here is their latest forecast on the results:

The percentages used were Lab 36%, Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, Nationalists 2.5%.

The main change over the last year in our forecasts is a slow reduction in the anticipated total share of the vote won by the two main parties, especially the Labour Party,  and an increase (partly reversed) in the projected Liberal Democrat vote, coupled with an increasing belief that there is a significant possibility of anti-Labour tactical voting in some seats. This is in reaction to the after-effects (and continuing effects) of the Iraq War and a series of unpopular policies such as tuition fees. The combination of these and other factors, in our judgement, created enough anger in a small proportion of the electorate to persuade them to vote for anyone who can defeat the local Labour MP. In this election simulation we again assume that a maximum of 20% of people would be prepared to vote tactically against Labour in the right circumstances. This is a little higher than we have generally previously assumed before this year, but still within what we judge to be a realistic range (and it should also be emphasised that this figure is not the number that we think will vote tactically, simply those who would be prepared to do so if they lived in a constituency where the circumstances were right.)

Party         Seats     Change from 2001 election
Labour           345       -67
Conservative  209       +43
Lib Dems      60        +8
SNP           7         +3
Ulster Un     6         -
DUP           5         -
Plaid Cymru   5         +1
Sinn Fein     4         -
SDLP          3         -
Ind           1         -
Speaker       1         -
Labour Maj    46        -71

They also have different predictions for various turnout rates (imagine that!)...check it out. They also have detailed maps of the current district control and how they would change by putting in different numbers....

by Nazgul35 2005-04-04 08:18PM | 0 recs
Just for differnet scenarios:

Conservative surge:

Turnout = Con 36%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 20%, Nats. 2.5%

Labour Majority = 42 seats

Lib Dem surge:

Turnout = Lab 33%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 27%, Nats. 2.5%

Labour Majority = 72 seats

Labour vote Slump:

Turnout = Con 37%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 24%, Nats. 2.5%

Hung Parliament, Labour short 26 seats but still largest party.

Conservatives get 40%:

Turnout = Con 40%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 20%, Nats. 2.5%

Hung Parliament, Labour short by 35 seats but still the largest party.

Welcome to the world of First-past-the-post electoral laws folks!!!

by Nazgul35 2005-04-04 08:26PM | 0 recs
The tories have serious issues
The conservatives in the UK are in pretty pathetic shape, to be honest.

At this point, they barely represent any kind of real opposition.  Changing leaders every year or so doesn't work

by v2aggie2 2005-04-04 08:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The tories have serious issues
Then again, the above numbers may give them hope
by v2aggie2 2005-04-04 08:25PM | 0 recs
Check out my second post
the scenario of a LibDem surge will actually help Labour and give them the largest seat majority of 72 seats....

Everyone seems to be suggesting that the vote is going in favor of the Lib Dems...

by Nazgul35 2005-04-04 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Check out my second post
Looks like all scenarios favor Labour...
by v2aggie2 2005-04-04 09:08PM | 0 recs
My prediction:
Labour will win, but be wounded (lose significant numbers of seats).  This happens to be the scenerio that seems most favorable to liberals (small l), because the Liberal Democrats aren't strong enough to win it outright, and we don't want the Torries to actually win, but Blair needs to be knocked down a peg or two or twenty seven.
by Geotpf 2005-04-05 06:38AM | 0 recs
Re: My prediction:
The consensus is that if Blair goes below the 100 seat margin of victory, he will be replaced by the party faithful....

The situation that seems least likely to do this is with a Lib Dem surge, which will give Labour a 70+ seat advantage....

Seem like if you want to get rid of Blair, you should vote for the Conservative candidate....

by Nazgul35 2005-04-05 09:15AM | 0 recs
Wish you were going too
I'd trade your reporting from the UK for Kos's any day.
by Abby 2005-04-05 07:34AM | 0 recs
mayeb a stupid question
why does it pain you to consider the LibDems?

I don't know much of anything about UK politics, but just reading the LibDems preamble they seem righ tup a liberal's alley.

I'm sure there's more to it than just their preamble that I don't know, but ideally they seem pretty good.

by descolada99 2005-04-05 08:03AM | 0 recs
I like the LibDems
By that I mean that I would vote for them, not that I think they'll win.

I read about their ideology in this article, and they seem to be pretty progressive. Of course, it's difficult to tell, since most of what we consider to be progressive here in the United States is decades-old law in the UK.

by craverguy 2005-04-05 09:25AM | 0 recs
Tories Won't Win, Lib Dems Make Impressive Showing
The Tories won't win this election, its far from the realm of possabiliy. Even if they're leading in the polls, a stright preference poll dosen't matter because the United Kingdom dosen't have proportional representation, they have single member first-past-the-post districts. This situation greatly advantages the Labour government who has the strongest list of incumbant candidates in all the districts. Labour will win this election. The fight is really over second place. The Liberal Democrats can concievably overtake the Tories as the second party in Britian's system, once the official campaign begins the LD's Charles Kennedy shines on television. Disafffeed Labour voters should add to the LD's base of support, possibly giving them a quarter of the vote. The Liberal Democrats deserve any American progressive or liberal's support. Aside from the Iraq war, Tony Blair's government has also stripped British citizens of their civil liberties. Think patriot act times ten, thats what the civil liberties situation is over there right now. The Tories actually want to go further, only the LibDems have stood up for British rights.
by dbarkeley 2005-04-05 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Tories Won't Win, Lib Dems Make Impressive Sho
For more on why the Libdems deserve to win:

by dbarkeley 2005-04-05 07:07PM | 0 recs
British Perspective
I live in the UK and have done all my life, Basicaly Labour will win, there is no way on this earth they can lose, their majority will be smaller but this will make very little difference to them and absolutely no difference to Tony Blair as he has already said he will stand down during his next term, something which doesn't seem to have been mentioned so far.
My personal sense is that Liberal Democrats will do better than most polls suggest but not by a huge margin.

I am voting for the liberal democrats as they are the only party which will update archaic taxation systems, oppose ID cards (which will impose on our civil liberties if introduced), don't try to scare us into doing whatever they want by talking about terrorism (that includes the Iraq war) and basically they are the party who make the most sense.

by mitothy 2005-04-17 04:25PM | 0 recs


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