Labour still expected to top 100

Showing just how bad their draw is, the Conservative Party in the UK has finally abandoned an earlier campaign strategy of suggesting that it would be a "vote Blair get Brown" election. What they suceeded in doing is making the populace embrace Brown as the antidote to Blair:According to YouGov, 63 per cent see Brown as an "asset" to Labour compared to 34 per cent for Blair. Asked who is doing the better job, 52 per cent say Brown compared to 17 per cent for Blair.The most recent YouGov poll for The Sunday Times hasn't changed much either:
Labour           37% 
Conservative     32%
Lib Dems         23%
If it were Brown instead of Blair at the top, Labour would win in a blowout.

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)



Crystal ball
The election still looks like a toss-up this far out(2 months). In Spain a year ago, Zapatero looked like a loser, we know how that turned out.
That said, the Tories are making a mess of this campaign, beyond the Iraq war fiasco, they have multiple issues they can use to attack Blair, including immigration and security. This is looking more and more like the inept campaign run by John Kerry last year.
by majella77 2005-03-20 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Crystal ball
I agree, and it is because they suffer the same problems as the Dems do, they have no core vision to work from to create a compelling narrative, so they are eleft simply with attack blair and labour.

they will lose and lose badly, though not as badly as in the past.

I wouldnt be so quick as to assume Brown would do better than Blair. elections in Britain havent been kind to non english leaders, ask John Smith and Neil Kinnock.

It's a pretty big thing for an Englishman to have a scot rule them....

by Pounder 2005-03-20 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Gordon Brown
I wouldn't dismiss Brown so easily. He enjoys strong support within Labour, and is seen as more trustworthy than Blair or Howard.

Think if Blair hadn't presided over (New) Labour's ascendency, would have been deep-sixed by now.

There's still some loyalty and honour left in the world, even in politics.

by majella77 2005-03-20 08:05PM | 0 recs
Schiavo Case
Hello Jerome.  I was wondering if anyone has comments on the Schiavo case.  Can you start a Post or can I begin a Diary of this event? Thanks. Julien or Neolib.
by neolib 2005-03-20 02:05PM | 0 recs
It will really come down to voter turnout.  Will people be able hold their noses and vote Labour with Blair as PM, or stay home?

BTW - why aren't the Lib Dems able to make more inroads?

by uptown 2005-03-20 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout
too many safe Labour/Tory seats, and for some reason, they have trouble persuading Labour/Tory voters.
by johnny longtorso 2005-03-20 06:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout
For more on the Liberal Democrats and British politics more generally, check this post of mine out
by Ben P 2005-03-20 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Turnout
Thanks Ben,
Great post.  My family came to the US in 1963 so I didn't know the background that well, since I went to school here.  Most of my relatives in the UK seem to still support Labour, but don't like Blair.
by uptown 2005-03-22 11:14AM | 0 recs


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