UK Election: Status Quo Holding
by Chris Bowers, Mon Feb 07, 2005 at 08:16:20 AM EST
A month ago, the Lib Dems were on 26 per cent, with some pundits hinting at a breakthrough that now looks highly unlikely.
Based on these figures - a 1.7 per cent swing from Labour to the Conservatives - Labour would lose between 25 and 30 seats, with the Tories gaining fewer than 10 and the Lib Dems picking up a handful That would give Labour a third landslide and a majority of between 120 and 130.The Guardian shows much of the same:The January Guardian/ICM survey shows that Labour's poll position has slipped two points in the last month from 40% to 38%. Tony Blair's party retains a seven-point lead over the Conservatives who are unchanged on 31% - enough to deliver a Commons majority of 140 in a general election later this year. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 21% and other parties up two points to 9%.
Mr Blair's own poll rating as prime minster remains in negative territory at minus 12 points, with 38% happy with the job he is doing in Downing Street compared with 50% who are not.
The prime minister has consolidated the improvement in his personal ratings in the past few months. Between February and July last year his ratings slumped to between minus 20 and minus 24 points.
Mr Blair is actually in a better position now than Margaret Thatcher was in January 1987 as she also prepared to fight a third term general election. Then her personal rating stood at minus 26 points yet she still won a handsome third-term victory.Labour and Tory leaders both seem disliked, but the Liberal Democrats still seem unable to move up. Considering this, I'd like to make my own prediction: very low turnout.