MD-Sen: Steele Struggling

Rasmussen has a poll out on the 2006 Senate race in Maryland. In many ways, it is bad for presumptive Republican nominee Michael Steele. For starters, the numebrs are not very good, and getting worse (November 16, 500 LV):
	  Now	  July
Cardin	   49	   45
Steele	   41	   50

Mfume	   44	   40
Steele	   45	   46
This is only part of the story, however. Steele is sruggling in this poll despite a couple of seemingly big advantages. Notably, he has both a higher name ID than Cardin (76% to 63%), and a better favorable rating (+12 to +5). And yet he is still losing. I mean, when you are losing despite holding those advatnages, it beats the hell out of me as to how you come back. (Of course, I imagine that not being a wingnut in a deep blue state would probably help).

But wait, that's not all! This pol also seems to be skewed in favor of Republicans. The poll indicates that Bush has a 38% job approval in Maryland. Since July, Survey USA has consistently found Bush's Maryland approval to be lower than that, including 32-65 in November, and 33-64 in October. Thus, even with a more favroable sampling pool, Rasmussen find Steele struggling.

Oh yeah--and Steele is well behind in the money race too. The Demcoratic primary in Maryland is starting to look a lot more interesting than a potential Cardin-Steele matchup. With trends like these, it is starting to seem pretty clear that Mfume could take Steele down as well.

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Steele-MD-2006= Tenenbaum-SC-2004
Steele is the Inez Tenebaum of 2006.

Tenenbaum-of SC was a popular statewide elected official in South Carolina- was considered as a top tier candidate for an Open US Senate Seat. Tenenbaum lost the election to a sitting US Representative by a 10% margin.

by CMBurns 2005-11-21 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Steele-MD-2006= Tenenbaum-SC-2004
Not sure who else we could have put up.  We may have lost that seat by more like 18%, like in Georgia.  I lived in South Carolina in the late 90s, Fritz Hollings would have lost had he tried for re-election.  Former Gov. Jim Hodges lost to Sanford in 2002, and would have lost to DeMint as well.  Tenenbaum was the best we could do.

The funny thing is, Steele is probably the best Republicans could do in Maryland.  And they're still going to lose with around 10%.

by Skaje 2005-11-21 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Steele-MD-2006= Tenenbaum-SC-2004
The only way a Democrat can lose in Maryland is if the Democratic nominee is caught in bed with a dead hooker/ is involved in a financial scandal/or runs a lousy campaign- KKTownsend.
by CMBurns 2005-11-21 01:50PM | 0 recs
This is why this mustn't get dirty.
Some people wrongly talk about "unelectability" (I hate the trend of this in all races) of Mfume when boosting Cardin.  Whomever the nominee is will be the favorite against Steele.  Much like I think the 2008 presidential contest will be.

I personally like Mfume, but I'd still be happy if it was Cardin.

by jgarcia 2005-11-21 01:17PM | 0 recs
Only diffrence is
Between the 2004 SC race and 2006 MD race is that It was a pickup for Republicans. Democrats are just defending this seat it's to bad. still it is good to know that we won't lose this seat.
by Liberal 2005-11-21 01:41PM | 0 recs
Cardin- elder statesman of Maryland
Cardin's strength is his 40 year legislative experience- 20 years in the MD State House of Delegates, 20 years in the US House of Representatives. Cardin was Speaker of MD House of Delegates for the last 10 years serving in the MD House of Delegates. Cardin is well liked and highly respected by his former collegues in the MD General Assembly and his current collegues in the MD Congressional Delegation including the Congressional Black Caucus Members. Cardin is percieved as a natural heir to Paul Sarbanes. Cardin - the Pat Moynihan version of Maryland.
by CMBurns 2005-11-21 02:02PM | 0 recs
There's also Allan Lichtman

 Allan Lichtman is also running for the Maryland Dem Senate seat.

  IMHO he's a stronger candidate than Cardin (good guy, but too bland) and Mfume (also a good guy, but the wrong kind of baggage).

  He has zero name recognition at this point, though, so it's an uphill battle. But he deserves a mention.
 

by Master Jack 2005-11-21 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: There's also Allan Lichtman
I met Mr. Lichtman a couple weeks ago. he seemed like a nice guy, but someone really should have given him a breath mint before letting him go meet and greet.
by johnny longtorso 2005-11-21 03:52PM | 0 recs
Re: There's also Allan Lichtman
How many college Professors was won a US Senate Race. Both MD US Senators- Sarbanes and Mikulski were US Housemembers while running for the US Senate. Sarbanes and Mikulski represents Ben Cardin's old District

Senators who were US House members when they were elected to the US Senate
1)AL-Shelby 1986 as a DEM
2)AZ-McCain 1986
3)AZ-Kyl 1986
4)CA-Boxer 1992
5)CO-Allard 1996
6)CT-Dodd 1980
7)GA-Chambliss 2002
8)GA-Isakson 2004
9)HI-Inouye 1962
10)HI-Akaka- 1990
11)ID-Craig 1990
12)ID-Crapo 1998
13)IL-Durbin 1996
14)IA-Grassley 1980
15)IA-Harkin 1984
16)KS- Roberts 1996
17)KS Brownback 1996
18)KY Bunning 1998
19)LA Vitter 2004
20)ME Snowe 1994
21)MD Sarbanes 1976
22)MD Mikulski 1986
23)MI Stabenow 2000
24)MS Cochran 1978
25)MS Lott 1988
26)MT Baucus 1978
27)NV Reid 1986
28)NH Sununu 2002
29)NY Schumer 1998
30)NC Burr 2004
31)ND Dorgan 1992
32)OK Inhofe 1994
33)OR Wyden 1996
34)PA Santorum 1994
35)RI Reed 1996
36)SC Graham 2002
37)SC DeMint 2004
38)SD Johnson 1996
39)VT Jeffords 1988
40)WV Byrd 1958
41)WY Thomas 1994
Senators who were former US Representative when elected to the US Senate.
1)AR Lincoln 1998
2)MO Talent 2002
3)NV Ensign 2000
4)SD Thune 2004

45
Senators who were current Governors when elected to the US Senate
1)DE Carper 2000
2)NH Gregg 1992
3)OH Voinovich 1998
4)WV Rockefeller 1984
49
Senators who were former Governors when elected to the US Senate
1)IN Bayh 1998
2)MO Bond 1986
3)NE Nelson 2000
4)VA Allen 2000
53
Current/Former US Cabinet Officials
1)AK- Stevens-1968
2)FL- Martinez-2004
3)ME-Collins 1996
4)NE- Hagel-1996
5)NC- Dole 2002
6)TN- Alexander 2002
59
Current or Former State Constitutional Elected Officials
1)AL-Sessions 1996 Attorney General
2)AR-Pryor 2002 Attorney General
3)CO-Salazar 2004 Attorney General
4)CT-Lieberman 1988 Attorney General
5)FL-Nelson 2000 State Treasurer
6)LA-Landreui 1996 ex State Treasurer
7)MN-Dayton 2000 ex State Auditor
8)NM-Bingaman 1982 Attorney General
9)ND-Conrad 1986 Tax Commisioner
10)TX-Hutchison 1993 State Treasurer
11)TX-Cornyn 2002 Attorney General
70
Lt Governors
1)MA-Kerry 1984
2)OH-DeWine 1994
72
Current or Former Mayors
1)CA-Fienstien-1992(San Francisco)
2)IN-Lugar- 1976(Indianapolis)
3)MN-Coleman 2002 (St Paul)
4)NM-Domenici 1972 (Alberqurque)
5)RI-Chafee 2000(Warvick)
77
State Legislators
1)AK Murkowski-2002-State House
2)IL Obama- 2004- State Senate
3)OR Smith- 1996 State Senate
4)WA Murray- 1992 State Senate
5)WI Feingold 1992 State Senate
6)WY Enzi 1996 State Senate
83
City/County Council
1)MI Levin 1979 Detriot City Council
2)MT Burns 1988 Yellowstone Commity Commision
85
State/District Attorney
1)PA Specter 1980 Philedelphia County
2)VT Leahy 1974 Chitteden County
87
Elected State Judge
1)KY McConell 1984
88
Corporate CEO
1)NJ Corzine 2000
2)WI Kohl 1988
3)UT Bennett 1992
4)WA Cantwell 2000
92
Military
1)VA Warner 1978
93
Doctors
1)OK- Coburn 2004
2)TN-Frist 1994
95
Elected at the age 30
1)DE- Biden 1972
2)MA-Kennedy 1962

Former US First Lady
1)NY Clinton 2000

Trial Lawyer
1)UT Hatch 1976

by CMBurns 2005-11-21 04:00PM | 0 recs
impressive list!
but wasn't Wellstone a professor?

-C.

by neutron 2005-11-21 05:38PM | 0 recs
minor correction to this list
  Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) should have been listed among the former Representatives. She won a House seat (WA-1) in 1992 but lost in 1994. A one-termer but still a former House member.
by Zack from the SFV 2005-11-21 09:15PM | 0 recs
impressive list!
but wasn't Wellstone a professor?

-C.

by neutron 2005-11-21 05:37PM | 0 recs
oops!
way to post twice...

argh.

-C.

by neutron 2005-11-21 05:38PM | 0 recs
by johnny longtorso 2005-11-22 05:26AM | 0 recs
Steele $$
He has a huge fundraiser coming up at the Ravens stadium, featuring Bush.  That will significantly alter the money race.  

Hopefully the connection with POTUS will be more of a net negative (guilt by association) than a net positive ($).

by billfrick 2005-11-22 05:31AM | 0 recs
MD Governors Race - Leans Democratic
Because both Democratic Candidates- Martin O'Malley and Doug Duncan are leading Bob Ehrlich by a substantial margin. The MD Governors Race is now in the Leans Democratic Column. In the MD Democratic Primary(Governors Race). O'Malley is from the DC Suburbs- But is the current Mayor of Baltimore City- Doug Duncan- The Current Montgomery County Executive is not well known outside the DC Suburbs. O'Malley will be the Democratic Nominee for the 2006 Maryland Governor's Race. O'Malley's Lt Governor Runningmate will be A Black Politician from Prince Georges County- either Wayne Curry or Anthony Brown-assuming Joe Curran seeks re-election as Attorney General.

MD US Senate Race will likely move to the Likely Democratic Collumn.

by CMBurns 2005-11-22 05:58AM | 0 recs

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