Building a Landslide in 2006, Part II
by Chris Bowers, Mon Oct 24, 2005 at 09:53:30 AM EDT
So, right now, Bush's approval ratings are pretty poor. However, his approval ratings weren't really that great in late October, and yet he was still able to eek out a victory over Kerry. Accoding to Pollkatz, two days before the election, the Bush index stood at 47.1, and yet both in the House and in the Presidential election Democrats lost the popular vote by around 2.5%. Given this, how low do Bush's approval ratings have to stay over the next year for Democrats to really make some big gains in 2006?
In order to make big gains in either house of Congress, we are going to need Bush's approval rating to remain low. This is because a nation unhappy with the current regime is a necessary, though not a sufficient, condition for a shift in power in DC. Specifically, I think the sure-fire number is 42.0 or lower in the pollkatz Bush index. 42.0 means a shift of at least 5 points against Bush since the 2004 election, which is more than twice the shift needed to create a Democratic majority. In other words, this is basically an outside of the margin of error shift in favor of Democrats. We simply cannot feel comfortable or confident unless Bush is at or below this number.
So, for 2006, I think 42 is the magic number to look for. Any poll that shows Bush at 42 or lower is good enough for our side. Anything at 43 or higher, we still have a lot of work to do. According to pollkatz, Bush first came in below this number in late August, and has remained below it ever since. If he stays below this level for an entire year, then we really, really have a good shot at 2006.