Kaine on top with this poll too

Another good poll out of Virginia, this one done by Hotline, showing that the momentum is on Tim Kaine's side. Here's the numbers:
                    RV's           LV's

Tim Kaine           40             41
Jerry Kilgore       38             40
Russ Potts           5              6
Undecided           13             10
That's still a lot of undecideds. Interesting that Potts is inching up, anything above 4% that Potts gets probably comes from Kilgore. Like the SUSA poll, Kilgore is having a hard time pulling in his base, while Kaine's has firmed. While 85% of Democrats are supporting Tim Kaine, only 69% of Republicans are supporting Jerry Kilgore. Only 49% of Republicans are into the race alot, vs 60% of Democrats.

It seems likely now, that Kilgore's ads have fired up the Democrats behind Kaine. I know I've felt that way. Kilgore's problem is that he's banked on an issue that few people care about, in an effort to make Kaine seem untrustful, and it's not working:

Education continues to be the top issue that voters want their next governor to focus on (30%), followed by transportation (24%) and health care (21%). Despite Jerry Kilgore's recent negative ad blitz, the death penalty is at the bottom of the list (2%). Also, Kaine benefits from a gender gap advantage of 2% in both this and the SUSA poll, which if you've seen Kilgore's latest ad, you'll see why he's targeting security moms with scare tactics.

Tags: Democrats (all tags)



I guess Kilgore's camp figured that the death penalty thing, though not a major issue, could be a surrogate for the larger issue of Kaine's character and social issues (being tough on criminals).

It's nice to see that it might have backfired. If so, my respect for the people of VA has increased considerably.

by LiberalFromPA 2005-10-18 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Character
I moved to VA a little over a year ago, and it's a world's difference from what it used to be. Fairfax County, a former GOP bastion (rejected Clinton twice by relatively large margins), went 250k Kerry over 200k Bush while at the same time becoming the wealthiest county in America.

The fact that Kaine is even competing in this race shows how much VA has changed. If he wins, he'd be one of the most liberal governors in the country as far as I know, extreme-left by VA standards. He opposes the death penalty, gets an F rating from the NRA every year, and helped push through a huge tax increase last year.

I'd love to think that VA just has too many educated Northereasterners moving into it to ever vote Presidential Red again.

by tipitfast23 2005-10-18 01:54PM | 0 recs
The new ad playing on mothers fears of pedophiles is gross and the worst form of political campaigning.  I can't support any campaign that plays on the emotional vulnerability of people.  Its a issue that shouldn't be politicized, and his ad of course tacitly implies that Kaine would be soft on child rapists.
by IrnBru001 2005-10-18 09:37AM | 0 recs
agreed re backfire
at least for this wavering Democrat. I never really considered voting for Kilgore, but my enthusiasm for Kaine was, let's say, quite mild. But after seeing those ads, I'm definitely voting, and definitely want Kilgore to lose. They're disgusting.
by asf6 2005-10-18 09:54AM | 0 recs
Religious frame

   Kaine did a smart thing in citing his objections to the death penalty in the context of his faith.

   Given that Kilgore, like most wingnuts, rationalizes just about every position he takes as driven by his religious beliefs, he can't credibly attack Kaine for arriving at HIS positions through HIS religious beliefs.

   So Kilgore's kind of boxed in here. And I suspect this helps explain why the ads seem to have backfired.

   Democrats need to do this kind of thing more. The wingnuts want more religion in government? Fine! Let's take better care of our poor, our young, and our infirm, and let's remind our voters that pre-emptive war is NOT pro-life.

   Call their bluff. That's what Kaine's indirectly doing...

by Master Jack 2005-10-18 06:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Religious frame
No kidding.  If you use values as a measuring stick for where you stand on the issues, the other side cannot effecitvely utilize the values angle.  You take it right away from them.  It has be used more by our party.  
by Eric11 2005-10-18 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Religious frame
  The idea is to frame DEMOCRATIC values in the context of religion and morality, which is what Kaine is doing here.

  The death penalty is IMMORAL.

  Denying health care to poor people is IMMORAL and flies in the face of a Culture of Life.

  Attacking another country under false pretenses is IMMORAL.

  Treating certain groups of people like second-class citizens is IMMORAL.

  You can cite just about every Democratic value in the context of morality. That's one thing Barack Obama does extremely well.

  This is 180 degrees from the DLC approach, which is to cave in to Republican "values", and plunge into the GOP frame for what constitutes "morality" (sex, sex, and more sex) in a misguided attempt to placate conservatives who would never vote Dem anyway.


by Master Jack 2005-10-18 07:14PM | 0 recs


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