Backfire on Kilgore
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Oct 17, 2005 at 03:37:02 PM EDT
Oct Sept Aug June March Kaine 47 43 43 39 36 Kilgore 45 46 48 49 46The statewide poll, taken of 750 Virginians over the weekend, shows Kaine leading with 47% of the vote. Republican Jerry Kilgore has 45%. Trailing far behind is independent candidate Russ Potts with 4%. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.7%, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat. But our tracking does show a steady climb for Kaine. In March and June Kilgore was ahead by 10 points. By August the lead was smaller, Kilgore at 48% to Kaine's 43%. And last month Kilgore was leading by three points. A Kaine spokesperson says Virginians are fed up with what they call Kilgore's negative campaign. Mo Elleithee, Kaine's communications director said, "People want someone with a positive agenda and someone who will keep Virginia moving forward. The voters are not responding well to Jerry Kilgore."
...Newschannel 10 Political Analyst Dr. Bob Denton says the tone of Kilgore's campaign could be the problem. "When campaigns get to intense and too much attack and too negative... that we may start seeing a backlash from the general electorate," Dr. Denton said. Denton believes this is basically an issue-less, personality driven campaign, with the voters asking, "Are they nice? Are they mean? Are they like me? And I think the campaign of Kilgore is being painted as someone who is indeed mean-spirited and going too negative."
Kilgore's press secretary, Tim Murtaugh, says, "We have always known this would be a close race. We take nothing for granted and will campaign as if we were 10 points down."Haha, Murtaugh has been giving that soundbite ever since Kilgore was up 10% in March, and hopefully his prediction becomes reality and Kilgore goes down by 10% in November.