Zogby: Kerry Still Leads Where it Counts

But Bush is closing the gap:Many states show improvement for the president. For instance, Mr. Bush increased his lead in Ohio, a key contest, to 10.9 percentage points, his biggest lead there yet and up sharply from the 5.6-point edge he had in mid-August.

At the same time, Mr. Kerry's lead in Pennsylvania slipped to its weakest since the Zogby polls began in May. Mr. Kerry was ahead there by 2.8 percentage points, inside the margin of error. In four of the five prior polls, Mr. Kerry's lead was outside of the margin; his lead hadn't fallen below 6.5 points in any of the prior Zogby polls.

All told, Mr. Bush's numbers improved in 12 of the 16 states, most notably Tennessee. That state, which has been volatile in prior polls, gave the president a 9.6-point lead. In the mid-August poll, Mr. Kerry was up 1.9 points.

Still, Mr. Kerry picked up ground in Minnesota, Washington, Michigan and New Mexico. His leads in the latter two states moved outside of the margin of error. In Washington, his lead has been outside of the margin in every poll since early June.

And, of course, even with his convention-time gains, the president is still short of the strongest results he got in earlier Zogby polls. At one point in June, Mr. Kerry was ahead just nine states to seven -- and Mr. Bush led the Electoral College analysis, 285-253.

On the one hand, of course Bush is closing the gap. He made up ground before the convention, and he made up ground--even moving ahead nationally--during the convention. However, Kerry remains in a strong position. He leads in four of the six "red" states that are his best chances for pickups, FL, MO, NV and NH, (OH and WV are the other two) even though Bush just had his convention after and the last three weeks of free media were decidedly negative for the challenger. It would be too much to assume that this is Bush peak, since the attacks will keep coming and history does not tell us what always happens in the future. If at what is very possibly Kerry's low point he still leads in the Electoral College, then it is not hard to be optimistic about this election.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Comments

5 Comments

It's in the stars
Zayin Cohen's comment was quite intriguing, so I investigated further. One of the astrological profiles on the site he referenced says this: In many ways you act and feel as if the world revolves around you, and sometimes it does. You tend to dominate your sphere, and when you come across other Fire types you instantly like or dislike them with no feelings in-between. You are devoted to your ideals and beliefs, and will play the game to the end, displaying your boundless enthusiasm no matter what the outcome. You despise static, unchanging and unyielding situations, and will put forth your best efforts to change them. With your courage, energy and dramatic flair, you can be an effective leader, and will be the first in line to explore uncharted regions. Your tendency to act first and think later, however, may lead others to accuse you of insensitivity. Learn to be more aware of others' feelings. Realize that your actions affect others' lives in ways that you may not have considered. Remember to develop sensitivity and appraise situations intellectually before you act with your heart. Visit me at http://timkelly.squarespace.com for more funny astrological news about the candidates.
by timkelly 2004-09-07 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Polls
Yeah you're right.... Maybe we should ask Woody to project the November winner.  If the stars can predict the future president I'm sure a woodpecker could.
by Slapmaxwell 2004-09-08 05:32AM | 0 recs
Lookin' like 269-269
That Ohio number from Zogby is ugly.  Right now, Kerry's looking at a 269-269 loss.

Of course, when things are this bad there's nowhere to go but up.  While Bush will keep some of his Convention-Swifty gains, he'll also slip from these highs.  Kerry remains in the driver's seat for November.

Silent E's EC predictions

by Silent E 2004-09-08 08:28AM | 0 recs
by Geotpf 2004-09-08 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry
Good Iraqi news helps Bush.

Bad Iraqi news helps Kerry.

The big Iraqi story right now is 1,000 dead US soliders-that helps Kerry.

(I'm just glad 1,000 didn't happen on September 11th...)

by Geotpf 2004-09-08 03:34PM | 0 recs

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