Monthly Kerry-Bush Trial Heat Average
by Chris Bowers, Wed Aug 25, 2004 at 09:02:07 AM EDT
Three-Way Month Kerry Bush Nader August 47.6 44.6 2.6 July 46.4 44.3 3.3 June 45.0 44.6 4.6 May 44.4 44.1 5.0 April 43.6 45.1 4.5 Two-Way Month Kerry Bush August 49.9 44.9 July 48.3 45.2 June 46.3 44.8 May 47.2 44.4 April 46.2 46.0These numbers were sent to me by Democracy Corps, and the trends here are obvious. As the campaign has progressed, Kerry has slowly moved forward every month as he makes the sale to more and more people. After experiencing a slight drop in May, Bush has been static, mired just below 45. Bush seems to be experiencing the typical incumbent problem of picking up undecideds, as the overwhelming majority are moving toward Kerry. Further, as Nader's support has dropped, Kerry's has risen. In August, 90% of Nader's polling support in thee-way trial heats shifts to Kerry in two-way trial heats.