Monthly Kerry-Bush Trial Heat Average

Month Kerry  Bush Nader 
August 47.6  44.6  2.6
July   46.4  44.3  3.3 
June   45.0  44.6  4.6
May    44.4  44.1  5.0
April  43.6  45.1  4.5

Month Kerry  Bush 
August 49.9  44.9
July   48.3  45.2
June   46.3  44.8
May    47.2  44.4
April  46.2  46.0
These numbers were sent to me by Democracy Corps, and the trends here are obvious. As the campaign has progressed, Kerry has slowly moved forward every month as he makes the sale to more and more people. After experiencing a slight drop in May, Bush has been static, mired just below 45. Bush seems to be experiencing the typical incumbent problem of picking up undecideds, as the overwhelming majority are moving toward Kerry. Further, as Nader's support has dropped, Kerry's has risen. In August, 90% of Nader's polling support in thee-way trial heats shifts to Kerry in two-way trial heats.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)



269-269 predictor has Kerry down at 280, based on the Gallup poll.  Now, I don't beleive that poll at all.*  But, if its true, and if Bush wins TN, MO, and CO - certainly likely - and Kerry stays ahead in NV, we're at 269-269!  AAAAAUUUGH

Is America ready for this again?

*FL: Seven firms have done Florida polls recently, and five show Kerry advantages: Strategic Vision (R!) 8-19 1%,  Survey USA 8-19 1%, Zogby 8-23 .6%, Quinnipiac 8-10 6%, ARG 8-5 7%.  Rasmussen and Gallup 8-24 & 8-23 are at -2.  That's nearly 6500 voters polled, with an aggregate (weighted) margin of 2.2%.  MoE on N=6500 is 1.2%!  MoE at 99% confidence is 1.6%!  So Florida is still pro-Kerry.  And that's without considering problems in Gallup's likely voter model.

by Silent E 2004-08-25 12:27PM | 0 recs
Some graphics
Can't post image links here?

by tis 2004-08-25 01:59PM | 0 recs


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