Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trendline graph

Here's a graph looking at the matchup between Bush and Kerry, showing all of the 2004 polling to date. The two most recent polls, both since the national exposure of the SBVT slime has come out, have shown the race tied, but the moving average over the last 5 polls still shows Kerry in the lead:

What I'll be looking for out of the GOP convention, starting in one week, is whether Bush can bounce high enough to overtake Kerry.  Out of the 92 polls taken this year, Bush has only 1 showing him above 50% since those taken in March of this year, so that would also be a key for Bush. If the poll numbers of Bush don't perform both of these key indicators, he's toast. As for Kerry, he's slipped about 1% in the past week (Rasmussen confirms this--I'll have a graph from them later this week). It's highly unlikely that Kerry maintains a lead through the end of this month, but he needs to halt any slide at above 46-47 percent.

46-47 is the current base of Kerry's current trendline of support, the graph of which I'll put in the extended entry.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Comments

24 Comments

Re: Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trends graph
I didn't graph this, but you can actually underline the lows for the trendline support of Kerry as it's grown--44, 44.5, 46.5, 47.5. As they say, sell short if it breaks though the support trend, otherwise, go long and hold.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-23 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trends graph
I went ahead and included the graph there explained in the extended entry.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-23 08:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trends graph
I don't think your low analysis holds water anymore Bush is on a roll!
by wfan 2004-09-04 02:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trends graph
Go W You are on a roll Don't let the UN set US policy with John John
by wfan 2004-09-04 09:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trends graph
Where's the update!  Time to sell that Kerry stock and buy into the Compassionate Conservative Go George - We love you
by wfan 2004-09-05 02:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trends graph
HOW ABOUT AN UPDATE!!!!!
by wfan 2004-09-06 03:52AM | 0 recs
SBVT is a temporary bounce
It'll go away, I think (especially as it's debunked).  If this came out in mid-October, it could affect the outcome.  As for now, nah.  The trend is still quite pro-Kerry-and it's even more pro-Kerry in the battleground states.
by Geotpf 2004-08-23 08:22AM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
If this came out in mid-October, it could affect the outcome.

I agree, their smear campaign was mistimed.

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-08-23 08:45AM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
No they are smarter than you give them credit for the first ads raised the questionable material - No one will win this one, but they got the public's attention - Now they move to the material that Kerry can't question - His own traitorous speech before the Senate in 1971 while our men were being tortured - This is undebatable and heart wrenching!  Masterful strategy by our Vets _ Good and bright Americans
by wfan 2004-09-04 09:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Fantastic
If not, and (as I suspect) the numbers are simply the polls numbered sequentially, if you have an end date associated with each poll in your spreadsheet, you can make that the basis of the Y axis instead of the poll number, which would give us a better sense of how Kerry's position has changed over real time.
by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-08-23 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Fantastic
Right Ed, I'll include that suggestion with the next update, probably do it by month. Right now, it's just got all 92 polls that were taken in chronological order, numbered sequentially.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-23 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Fantastic
When do you update or don't you show the graphs where George is in the lead???
by wfan 2004-09-04 09:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Fantastic
Number one is from the first Kerry-vs-Bush poll taken in 2004, iirc, from January.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-08-23 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
what do they have in mind for October? The CW is, something like the dramatic capture of Osama --- but there could always be more dirt they're saving for the home stretch.

I've no doubt that they've got something planned for October, but I seriously doubt it's the capture of OBL, since (and I hate to keep harping on this, but I find it amazing that more people haven't accepted it) logic and circumstantial evidence would say that he's already dead (despite the CIA's assurances otherwise).  I'd bet on it (if I had any money.)

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-08-23 10:11AM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
Hmmm...first time I heard the Osama's-kid-is-the-one-recording-the-audio-tapes theory, although it makes perfect sense.  The Osama-is-in-poor-physical-shape (like maybe he lost a limb or is confined to bed) makes sense too.  The fact that no new video tapes have appeared for quite awhile does make you wonder.

In any case, if the son-is-recording-the-tapes theory is true, then this is good news for Kerry-because it is extremely unlikely that anybody on our side will every find Bin Laden's body, so Bush will not be able to capture him (or his remains) and wave him in front of the cameras on Halloween.

by Geotpf 2004-08-23 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: OBL Dead???
Circumstancial is all and good, but it does not prove it.

Well, anonymous person (what color is your mask?), of ocurse it doesn't, but it's strong enough, in my opinion, to allow ourselves to just chill out about the possibility of a capturing-Osama October Surprise, which is entirely my point, and not that anyone should necessarily be completely convinced that he's dead.

It's much more important to have a strategy in place for dealing with the (in my mind slim) possibility that Bush will wave OBL around in October than it is to get out panties in an uproar about it maybe happening.  

And it's equally important that we recognize that, if we allow him to, Bush can use the fear, uncertainty and doubt generated by the mere potential of an OBL capture in October to keep us off-balance and off our game.

In short, there's some likelihood that OBL is dead, we should prepare for an October surprise in any event, and we should keep our wits about us and not go all wobbly about the whole thing.

by Ed Fitzgerald 2004-08-23 03:34PM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
This is dangerous for them, but they may reopen the illegal drugs debate.

Something like, "Shrub used illegal drugs, but has since found Jeebus and renounced that heathen lifestyle.  JFK used drugs in Vietnam and has not sufficiently condemned those who do so today, and ergo is soft on crime and wants your children to do heroin."

It's dangerous, because we do have legit questions as to how 'dry' Bush really is.  And because the Libertarian-Republicans (a Lib is a Republican who still smokes dope) will not like that line of attack at all.  

But they don't need to win the argument - they just need to call Kerry a pot smokin' hippie often enough for the doubts to set in.

I guess we would counter with the current failures in the War on (Some) Drugs, and the results of Shrub's Afghani campaign (heroin production up, up, up!) But, hey, Tommy Chong's in jail, and Ashcroft found some hookers in New Orleans.

by Nina Katarina 2004-08-24 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
What on earth are you talking about?  I haven't heard of Kerry using any sort of drugs at any time being brought up as a campaign issue by anybody.  In fact, I have no idea if he did or not (and I frankly don't care either way).
by Geotpf 2004-08-24 10:05AM | 0 recs
Bush on a Roll11
Isn't anyone in here happy that Bush is on a roll.  No, wait the country is on a roll and Bush is gettingdeserved credit for it.

Let's see -
The economy is growing
Jobs are growing
Iraq is gettin quieter bit by bit
Gas prices are falling
Granma is getting a discount on drugs

uh oh there is a hurricane in Florida - Bush sent it there to get rid of his enemies

Come on let's give the man credit - He's done a womderful job in difficult times

by wfan 2004-09-04 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: SBVT is a temporary bounce
You need not bother yourself with a Kerry Win - He is Toast Time for him to retire to the ashpile of liberal senators
by wfan 2004-09-05 03:01AM | 0 recs
Its all Over
Now Kerrys buddies are planting dorgeries what's nest
by wfan 2004-09-11 05:08AM | 0 recs
Its all over
I'm sorry That should read FORGERIES
by wfan 2004-09-11 05:09AM | 0 recs
Rather for Kerry Press Secretary
Nope he's too consistent probably can't even flip a pancke much less change his opinion even though the whole world knows he's lying

Hey is this site shut down?  Where's the updates????

by wfan 2004-09-12 01:26PM | 0 recs
Rather for Kerry Press Secretary
Nope he's too consistent probably can't even flip a pancke much less change his opinion even though the whole world knows he's lying

Hey is this site shut down?  Where's the updates????

by wfan 2004-09-12 01:26PM | 0 recs

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