Bush vs Kerry: 2004 polls & trendline graph
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Aug 23, 2004 at 08:00:09 AM EDT
What I'll be looking for out of the GOP convention, starting in one week, is whether Bush can bounce high enough to overtake Kerry. Out of the 92 polls taken this year, Bush has only 1 showing him above 50% since those taken in March of this year, so that would also be a key for Bush. If the poll numbers of Bush don't perform both of these key indicators, he's toast. As for Kerry, he's slipped about 1% in the past week (Rasmussen confirms this--I'll have a graph from them later this week). It's highly unlikely that Kerry maintains a lead through the end of this month, but he needs to halt any slide at above 46-47 percent.
46-47 is the current base of Kerry's current trendline of support, the graph of which I'll put in the extended entry.