Professor Pollkatz on Polling Firm Bias
by Chris Bowers, Mon Jul 12, 2004 at 11:37:38 AM EDT
I was mistaken. I finally rolled up my sleeves and tested the hypothesis directly; not only were none of the results significant, none of them even suggested the swings I expected.
Pollingreport.com posts several "approval" polls from Bill Clinton's second term. I used this data to construct a "Clinton Index," similar to my Bush Index. To my wonder and amazement, I discovered that the rankings of the individual pollsters were not much different: Fox and Zogby at the extremes, everybody else clustered around one or two points. Most important, none of the ten pollsters in the database exhibited a significant, or even conspicuous, swing from Clinton low to Bush high (or vice versa).So, except for Fox and Zobgy, polling firms did not appear to lean either for or against Clinton. Then again, Zogby was a lot closer to the final result on Election Day in 2000 than most other firms. I am going to once again seriously think about removing all Fox polls from my calculations.
Pollkatz has lots of other stuff on his site that would cause any political junie to salivate. Check it out.