Canda's upcoming National Election

A new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll projects the following the upcoming elections in Canada are a virtual tile between the Liberals (32%) and the Conservatives (31%):

Seat Projection Model Suggests:

Liberals 115-119 
Conservatives 110-114
NDP 17-21
Bloc Quebecois 56-60
Green 0-2

The Liberals are down 2% since their last polling, and at their lowest polling since 1991, the Conservatives are up 1% and have momentum, 11% are undecided. The election is June 28th.

The results from another recent poll of percentages:

A poll last week, with the largest sample of B.C. voters to date, put the Conservatives at 32 per cent, the Liberals at 29 and the NDP at 28 per cent. The fledgling Green Party had 9 per cent. With approximately 50 per cent saying they may still change their minds, experts expect a bruising, no-holds barred campaign until voting day. The closeness of the race has all four parties, even the Greens, predicting breakthroughs. But Conservative John Reynolds, with nearly 30 years in provincial and federal politics under his belt, cautions that "the real action is gonna take place" after the national leader debates next week.

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)



notes from Canada...
An interesting election this - the Liberals, who like the Democrats have proven that right-wing folk can't manage an economy to save their ass, have brought forth consectutive balanced budgets for 8 years now and managed to mitigate the effects of the dip in the economy to avoid a formal recession.  And, in recent years, has moved back to the social realm to defend same-sex marriage rights and decriminalization of marijuana possession, albeit both reluctantly and with an arguable level  of due process and concern on both fronts.

And yet, they're doing a great job of sabotaging their own efforts these days.  The new prime minister, who was actively destabilizing the former government while the architect of deficit reduction in a bald-faced grasp at power, has had great difficulty resolving the internal strife that he created.  A blatant conflict of interest scandal within the party has also engendered a lot of frustration.

The Conservative alternative, however, is very scary indeed, especially since they've mastered a way to hold on to extreme positions without formally doing so.  The Conservative platform smacks of compassionate conservativism - on social issues, allowing wingnuts free reign to informally dictate policy on abortion, the death penalty, same-sex marriage and decriminalization of pot without being formally dogmatic about it.  And on economic issues, they're playing the standard hallucination of cutting taxes and increasing spending - to the tune of twice the expected future budget surplus over five years - and expecting things to somehow work by finding $50 billion to pay for it.  Coupled with similar vagueness on privatization of health care, increased economic integration with the USA, and vacilliations on the proper role of the military in US-led campaigns like Iraq, and we might be asking for a boatload of trouble here.

Hopefully people can figure this out, hold their nose and vote Liberal again, even though frankly they're started to get tired and it shows.  It's a difficult choice - I've worked for provincial and federal Liberals in the past, and I'm having difficulty signing on to this group.  But the electable alternative is odious, and the left-wing parties (the NDP and Greens) aren't really capable of forming a balanced government, and really aren't trying for more than a kingmaker role in a minority situation, which we'll inevitably have.

A Conservative minority for a couple of years might be inevitable, and at least a minority will be contained, since none of the other parties will buy into their platform.  The Bloc Quebecois, a separatists Quebec-only party, is to the left of the Liberals on most social and economic issues, and can really only agree with Conservatives on devolution of powers to the provinces and any other issue that directly affects Quebec's interests.  

by mlwjones 2004-06-07 12:48PM | 0 recs
Do you think that a Conservative minority that has the leader is a possibility, given that the other smaller parties are closer to the Liberal's, in terms of agenda?

The whole thing smells of hubris, with the Liberal Party calling an early election, and having it thrown back in their faces.

There is a pretty big undecided factor, and like you hinted at, it will likely break to the Liberals, and perpahs they are showing their disgust by holding out in the polls, but showing up in the votes.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-06-07 05:19PM | 0 recs
It's there
I noticed that too, in reading about 10 online papers while compiling this entry.  I finally found one that noted the date, June 28th.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-06-08 04:07AM | 0 recs


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