Monday is Election Day in Canada

    Latest poll: June 25 (June 22)

  • Liberals: 32 (34)
  • Conservatives: 31 (28)
  • NDP: 17 (16)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 12 (12)
  • Greens: 6 (6)

On Monday, national elections will be held in Canada, the latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows the conservatives with the momentum (see graph). However, I fail to see how making the liberal party a minority ruling party would be a bad thing, especially given if they were made to form a coalition with the NDP and/or the Green Party. Giving Labor and the Environmentalists a stronger seat at the table would be a terrific thing for Canada, as it would move them to an even more progressive and anti-Bush agenda.

The poll from June 22nd showed the Liberal/NDP/Green bloc with 56% of the vote, and this latest poll, from June 25th, shows the Liberal/NDP/Green bloc with 55% of the vote. SES Canada Research polling conducted over the same period found slightly different results, with an even stronger 58% majority:

  • Liberals: 34
  • Conservatives: 30
  • NDP: 20
  • Bloc Quebecois: 12
  • Greens: 4
Either way, it's a strong majority for the center-left parties; it's just a matter of whether that majority amounts to the same majority of seats, because the national vote total means little, and the seats won mean everything else.

Based on their polling, Ipso-Reid predicts the following seat projection:

  • Conservatives: 115 - 119 seats
  • Liberals: 99 - 103 seats
  • Bloc Quebecois: 64 - 68
  • NDP: 22 - 26

    (For a full explantion of their seat model, see Turning Votes Into Seats)

These projections don't include the Green Party winning any seats, however, neither did the polls project the NDP winning any seats in 1994, when they broke through to win 9 seats. The GP would most likely, if they are able, to gain a few seats in BC. At the least, the GP is set to get the two per cent of the vote nationally it needs to qualify for federal financing, and be included in the next election's debates.

For this election, I predict the new government will be a Liberal-led minority government supported by the NDP.

Tags: Foreign Elections (all tags)



Re: Further . . .
There are differences of opinion in Liberal and NDP ranks, but it's not nearly as rocky as the Conservative/BQ option.  The only thing they'll ever agree on is devolution of powers to the provinces.  On social policy, the BQ is much more in line with the NDP than anything, and both the fiscal and social conservative wings of the Conservatives won't find much support from the BQ on much of their plans.

The Greens are a strange mix of fiscal prudence and social progressivism right now.  They're being better liberals than the Liberals are.  Their environmental platform is well received but dispenses with a lot of the eco-wingnut rhetoric.  It's actually plausible.  The break from the eco-hegemony has led more radical environmental groups to bolt to the NDP, but has attracted a fair amount of attention and support from others, including myself.

Whatever the case, since we don't have proportional representation, the Green's aren't an issue.  Likely zero seats, with about 5% of the vote.  

PR is coming soon, since the NDP (who'll get 16-20% of the vote and 10% of the seats, if they're lucky) are making it a condition of their support.  And the Liberals are probably eager to see this now, since they can't capitalize on vote splitting among conservatives anymore.  

by mlwjones 2004-06-27 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Further . . .
Good point on the PR.  From what I've read, the conservative party is much more socially conservative than what canada is as a whole, especially considering abortion and gay marriage.  Anyway, what about on the military, do the conservatives want to beef that up too?

The Lib minority with NDP is the only solution I can see having any chance at success.  If it's anything else, they'll be another election in 2005.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-06-28 05:57AM | 0 recs


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