Kerry's Favorables Soar in Battleground
by Chris Bowers, Thu May 27, 2004 at 10:04:12 AM EDT
In the 20 states which both presidential campaigns consider tight enough to warrant spending on television advertising, Kerry is now viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent, based on polling of 800 people from May 17 through May 23. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.
Kerry's standing in those states improved from late April, when 36 percent viewed him favorably and 35 percent viewed him unfavorably...
President Bush, who had held an advantage over Kerry in perception in those states, does so no longer. Forty-four percent now view him favorably and forty-four percent unfavorably. That is a drop from the first two weeks of May, when 48 percent viewed him favorably and 38 percent viewed him unfavorably....
The twenty battleground states are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.This adds a lot more credence to the latest Zogby battleground trial heats. In the twenty states that matter the most, Kerry now has the same favorables as Bush and double-digit fewer unfavorables. No wonder Kerry is winning or threatening almost everywhere.
Rove and Bush never counted on this. They never imagined that Democrats would be able to fight back against their slander machine once a nominee was chosen. They never imagined that their $200M+ war-mongering chest would have competition on the airwaves. They never counted on Democrats finding a new small donor base. They never counted on the Blogosphere.
After Super Tuesday, all the talk was about whether or not Kerry could survive Bush's attempt at a March-April "knockout punch." Now, it would appear that Kerry could potentially lay a knockout punch on Bush next month. Considering these numbers, Kerry's trial heat lead in important states could rise much higher. Considering the direction of the country numbers, Bush's job approval ratings could drop much lower. Bush could be in a big, big hole even before Kerry receives his convention bounce.