Kerry's Favorables Soar in Battleground

To put it as simply as I can, Kerry's enormous, $25M ad buy in 20 states worked. According to Annenberg (warning: PDF file):

Since John Kerry began showing biographical television ads about himself in early May, he appears to have reversed a slide in public impressions of him in the battleground states, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey shows.

In the 20 states which both presidential campaigns consider tight enough to warrant spending on television advertising, Kerry is now viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent, based on polling of 800 people from May 17 through May 23. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

Kerry's standing in those states improved from late April, when 36 percent viewed him favorably and 35 percent viewed him unfavorably...

President Bush, who had held an advantage over Kerry in perception in those states, does so no longer. Forty-four percent now view him favorably and forty-four percent unfavorably. That is a drop from the first two weeks of May, when 48 percent viewed him favorably and 38 percent viewed him unfavorably....

The twenty battleground states are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.

This adds a lot more credence to the latest Zogby battleground trial heats. In the twenty states that matter the most, Kerry now has the same favorables as Bush and double-digit fewer unfavorables. No wonder Kerry is winning or threatening almost everywhere.

Rove and Bush never counted on this. They never imagined that Democrats would be able to fight back against their slander machine once a nominee was chosen. They never imagined that their $200M+ war-mongering chest would have competition on the airwaves. They never counted on Democrats finding a new small donor base. They never counted on the Blogosphere.

After Super Tuesday, all the talk was about whether or not Kerry could survive Bush's attempt at a March-April "knockout punch." Now, it would appear that Kerry could potentially lay a knockout punch on Bush next month. Considering these numbers, Kerry's trial heat lead in important states could rise much higher. Considering the direction of the country numbers, Bush's job approval ratings could drop much lower. Bush could be in a big, big hole even before Kerry receives his convention bounce.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)



I'm with you
The problem with climbing so early, is that there's only one place for the opponent to go.... up. People should remember the climb by Dukakis, though, this is looking more like the first Carter race, where he jumped out to a huge lead over Ford, and coasted home.
by Jerome Armstrong 2004-05-27 04:32PM | 0 recs
I agree that there is a little too much confidence here--though Chris does have numbers to back up that confidence.  Still, nothing should be considered even close to a guarantee this far out.

About the Mission Accomplished claim in July though--that won't work.  The problem there is that June 30th is nothing but a photo op and it will change almost nothing in the country.  The Iraqis are not going to have any real control.  The violence is going to continue because of that.  Therefore, Bush may try to claim that the mission was accomplished, but the facts won't back him up.  The public will see the violence continuing, will see that troops are still dying, and they won't buy it.  Bush isn't going to get any help with Iraq.

But yeah, the economy is improving.  On the other hand, it could reverse itself.  And furthermore, polls show people still are quite concerned about the economy--even with the job improvements last month.  Understand, even if the job improvements continue, people still are going to realize that the economy is worse off than it was before Bush took office.  The job market may be improving, but it has a long way to go before it is truly strong or even close to where it was in 2000.  I think most of the public will realize that and it will keep them from getting too excited about any continued job growth.

by aimlessmind 2004-05-27 11:42PM | 0 recs
Neither the Economy nor Iraq will help bush
People's feelings about the economy are lagging indicators. Just look at bush sr's re-election for an example. The recession ending in June of 1992. The numbers in the summer and fall were incredible, relatively speaking. Bush Sr. got no credit for that. And, why should he have. Bush Jr. will get no credit for an improving economy. His tax cuts prolonged the economy unnecessarily, and took huge bites out of our budget.
Iraq cannot get any better. Investigations will continue through the summer and, possibly, the fall. The commission will generate a report in July/August that will dominate the airwaves, negatively for bush. There are multiple investigations into the illegalities promulgated by this administration. Those will come to a head. The bad news will keep on coming.
Bush is at his high-water mark now. He might get back to it after a small bump after his convention.
by myjlf 2004-05-28 03:14PM | 0 recs


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