House recap & forward

Republicans picked up 4 more seats in Texas. Democrats took away 2 Republican-held open seats, and lost 1; and Democrats knocked off 2 incumbents, and lost 1.

In Texas, only Edwards stood of the Texas 5-- Bush is still represented by a Democrat. Beyond that, Democrats won the open seat in Colorado's 3rd, with Salazar, and the open seat in New York's 27th with Higgens. Republicans won the open 4th in Kentucky. Democrats took away 3 seats and lost 1 against incumbents. Democrats took away the Georgia 12th and Illinois 11th CD's (Barrow & Bean); and Republicans look like they will takeaway the Indiana 9th, defeating Hill.

Louisiana has two run-offs for Dec 4th. The Republican held 3rd is Republican Tauzin vs Melancon; and the Democratic held 7th is Republican Boustany vs Mount. Overall, Democrats got 51% in the 7th, and 45% in the 7th, so neither of these is a sure thing.  

Overall then, it's a 2 seat gain for the Republicans so far, depending on the outcome in Louisiana. Somewhere between a 231-204 and 233-202 result, a 14-16 seat deficit for the Democratic Party in the House under DeLay.

Pelosi deserves to keep her job, but we need a new captain in the DCCC. Matsui hasn't showed the path to a majority, and we don't have the luxury of waiting around a couple terms for him to figure out the winning strategy.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)



If not Matsui, then whom?
>we don't have the luxury of waiting
>around a couple terms for him to
>figure out the winning strategy.

On the flip side, his experience losing this cycle may well help guide us to victory in 2006.  I think it's as much of a worry to bring in someone completely green to run the show... they're likely to make the same mistakes all over again.

If not Matsui, whom do you think should run the committee?  I think Rahm Emmanual might be the best choice...

by FieldRat 2004-11-03 04:55AM | 0 recs
I'd call it victory...
It looks, based on the national turnout numbers, that Rove's national-cable ads + his base mobilization strategy really pushed up red-state turnout and wiped out our individual race-by-race advantages.

We're down two.  But our base line was not zero - it was minus five!  The illegal Texas redistricting maneuver (we'll see what SCOTUS says this term) is was supposed to wipe out five seats - but they only got four, and we another two!  Plus, we held both of our 2004 open seat victories!

Whatever the national numbers say, Dems won the House race this year.  Not by much, certainly, but we won.

by Silent E 2004-11-03 05:32AM | 0 recs
It's not the leadership, it's the program
If we want to re-take the House, we need to come up with a national platform that will appeal, not hope to find local candidates whose charisma and name recognition will allow them to swim against the tide.  Given the low number of competitive districts, the GOP will always be able to flood a competitive race with very attractive surrogates, making this a losing strategy.

My hopes for the platform for 2006:

  1. Raise the minimum wage!!!! (The public agrees with us on the issue.  The GOP has an ideological fixation against it).

  2.  Law and Order - After the Supreme Court strikes down the Sentencing Guidelines (likely in the next month), Democrats need to get on the public's side and lay the blame for this fiasco at the feet of Bush's two favorite Justices, Scalia and Thomas.  Crime has been going down for the last decade and the GOP eggheads have decided that their reading of the Constitution trumps public safety.

  3.  Increased Homeland Security - The air, rail and seaport system is a disaster waiting to happen.  The public knows it.  The GOP has re-privitized airport security.  

  4.  We care about you.  The GOP cares about conforming to an ideology.  When they do not get the results that they want, they do not change tactics, they ignore the bad results, leaving you to suffer.  The best example of this would have been Enron and the California electical market.  They said that a "free market" for electrical power would increase supply and decrease prices.  We said that Enron would steal everything that was not nailed down.  We were right, but we did not take advantage.  Democrats cannot allow the fact that some of its leaders have contacts with fatcats to dissuade us to go after the targets.  Gingrich was brutally willing to sacrifice Bob Michel and his cronies to get to a majority.

  5.  Change!!! Change!!! Change!!!  The system in Washington is broken and we need new management to fix it.  Incorporate the Congressional scandal of the day into this message.

The list can grow, but should be no longer than 10 items.  It should include only issues that 1) accord with core Democratic values (fairness, security and opportunity for working America), 2) are popular among Independents and swing voters (whom we are trying to attract), and 3) tie the GOP into knots.  In the decade since the Contract with America, we still have not developed a coherent message about why the GOP needs to be kicked out.
by Ephus 2004-11-03 05:42AM | 0 recs
New Mexico
No one was even mentioning New Mexico in this entire race, as everyone was expecting it to be one of the boring "All the incumbents get re-elected in a landslide" states.

What you guys don't know is that Richard Romero (D) ALMOST picked off ice-queen Heather Wilson (R)(I).

It didn't happen, but it was close. didn't happen, so I guess this message doesn't really have a point.

by Kjorteo 2004-11-03 10:04AM | 0 recs
I think Pelosi needs to go.  Sorry.  I think the party needs to take back the middle and Pelosi will NOT be a help in that.  We need to get social moderates in these positions and work on bringing over the middle.  THe people who vote GOP because of defense, etc but can't stand the Zealots, the hard-core evangelicals, basically the core Bushies.  The GOP of Eisenhower...those guys.  They make up a bigger number of citizens.  We need to get them on our side and get them to booths.
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-03 12:05PM | 0 recs


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