Early turnout reports from the networks

Here are some early reports on turnout:
Ohio - African American precincts are performing at 106% what we expected, based on historical numbers. Hispanic precincts are at 144% what we expected. Precincts that went for Gore are turning out 8% higher then those that went Bush in 2000. Democratic base precincts are performing 15% higher than GOP base precincts.

Florida - Dem base precincts are performing 14% better than Bush base precincts. In precincts that went for Gore, they are doing 6% better than those that went for Bush. African American precincts at 109%, Hispanic precincts at 106%.

Pennsylvania - African American precincts at 102% of expectations, Hispanics at 136% of expectations. The Gore precincts are doing 4 percent better than bush precincts.

Michigan- Democratic base precincts are 8% better than GOP base states. Gore precincts are 5% better than Bush.


Tags: General 2008 (all tags)



Keep piling it on
No let up. This is great, great news, but there cannot be any let up at all.

Man Jerome, MyDD is going down in history one way or the other tonight. I'm still shaking.

by Chris Bowers 2004-11-02 10:53AM | 0 recs
Stay out there and keep it up...We've got the after work voters coming in soon in the East and Midwest so prepare for the next onslaught and make sure everyone gets to vote...Stay out there..And it won't hurt to have some snacks with you to keep everyone happy...I was in line today and a guy volunteered to go get coffee and donuts for everybody in line. It don't hurt to volunteer to do that either. Tell them you'll keep his spot in line...GO FOR IT!!! Keep it up!!!
by joedemocrat 2004-11-02 10:59AM | 0 recs
pile on
I hope that we can use this info to "run up the score".  

Nothin' would be more enjoyable than double digit wins in the battleground states, sorta like beating them 43-7...


by joby 2004-11-02 11:14AM | 0 recs
Does '102% of expectations' mean more than double or just 2% above expectations?
by Terp 2004-11-02 11:16AM | 0 recs
I would expect the Republican numbers to be a bit higher in the evening.  So far, things look good, but we still don't have much to go on.
by alhill 2004-11-02 11:25AM | 0 recs
GOTV here in Minnesota
It's five blocks (one way) from my house to my polling place.  It's one of those perfect fall days- the leaves are turning, it's sunny and just a touch cool, and I needed the exercise anyways, so I walked.  In the ten blocks, I met at least eight different GOTV groups.  This is ignoring the four times my door bell rang this morning by people reminding me to get out and vote.  I had at least three different groups offering me a ride to the polls.

I do live in one of the Democratic strongholds of Minnesota (south Minneapolis).  So I'm not at all surprised there's a lot of effort focused in this area.  And I'm unlikely to see the Republican GOTV efforts in my neighborhood (too many people with too much melanin live nearby).  But even given that, the GOTV effort is impressive.  

Add to this the fact that when I was downtown yesterday, Kerry/Edwards supporters were on every street corner (and wandering the skyways) giving out stickers.  And I've probably seen a dozen different K/E billboard vehicles driving around over the last couple of days.

"Fired up" doesn't begin to cover it.  From yardsign counts, I'd still say this election is going to be a nailbiter.  But the ground game is impressive where I sit.


by bhurt 2004-11-02 11:26AM | 0 recs
100% means expectations were exactly met
100% means they got 100% of what they expected.  Anything less is bad, anything more is gravy.

On this topic, anyone else suspect that the GOP badly miscalculated and misallocated resources by putting so much time, energy, and personnel into these voter surpression tactics rather than GOTV.  How many Republican activists are in Ohio looking for voter fraud inside precincts instead of driving old ladies to the polls and manning phone banks like the Dems are doing?

And I think it is backfiring and causing more people to come out to vote.

So perhaps the Rovian tactics are causing a double-whammy against Bush?

I'm writing from Texas which I doubt is in play, but the rest of you, GOTV!!!!

by texasdiver 2004-11-02 11:36AM | 0 recs
Republicans have a limited voter base
At 35%-50% turnout they win because their guys always show up, and Democrats don't.
by Cyt 2004-11-02 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Republicans have a limited voter base
I was looking over data the other day and over the last 30 years, 53.4% voter turnout is the magic number. When voter turnout has been 53.4% or higher, the Democratic candidate has won (53.5% for Carter in 76; 55.1% for Clinton in 1992). This 2004 election is playing out a lot like 1992 in that the young voters were heavily targeted as was I as a 20 year old in 1992. The higher the voter turnout, the better chance for Kerry. In order to break the 51.3% turnout of 2000 and get to the 53.4 plateau, there would need to be roughly 5.5 million new voters this year. From the looks of things so far, it sounds like that number will be reached and exceeded
by JC in Jax 2004-11-02 12:04PM | 0 recs
Actually conventional wisdom is that Republicans vote earlier than Dems so I don't know if Republican numbers will get better in the evening.

I don't think they are counting 100% of total expected voters at each precinct, but rather, 100% of what they expected to see by x-point in the day.

by texasdiver 2004-11-02 11:40AM | 0 recs
Example of turnout in Ohio
Local precinct numbers:  71% of registered people voted and in another precinct: 74% of registered people voted
by Marie Smith 2004-11-02 03:23PM | 0 recs


Advertise Blogads