US Senate prediction thread
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 06:46:33 AM EST
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 06:46:33 AM EST
Three takeaways on both sides. Dems retain the seat in Louisiana in the runoff.
For longshots. The upset pick would be Mongiardo in KY. Although, I think it's more likely that Bunning barely slips by, and that Mongiardo becomes the next KY Senator in the special election. On the Republican side, Michels comes a lot closer to knocking off Feingold then looked possible.
That's 54R or 55D to 45R or 46R. If I'm right, I want all you skeptics to bow down Wednesday.
The Democrats will certainly pick up in Illinois, Colorado, and Alaska. Both Okalhoma and Kentucky will be close, but the GOP will eke out wins in both states. It is possible that Democrats could win both, but I don't think that will happen. That makes for a gain of three seats.
The GOP will make pickups in Georgia and South Carolina. Georgia is a definite, while South Carolina will be close, but the GOP will take it. Louisiana will be a runoff naturally, and the Democrats will take that narrowly, but they will win (I expect it will be Chris John). In Florida and North Carolina, the Democrats will win narrowly. I expect Castor to run slightly ahead of Kerry in Florida in fact. In North Carolina, Bowles has been able to popund bakc hard in the last seventy-two hours, and I think he's got the slightest bit of momentum. This one will be decided in the thousands of votes.
South Dakota I predict will go to Daschle. Let us not forget that it was South Dakota that sent Tim Johnson back to the Senate by a margin of about 500 votes in 2002, a year in which Democratic voters were not showing up at the polls. Johnson was saved by a good turnout from the Native American Reservations, and Daschle has been working on that hard too. Also, the polls were just as close two years ago as they are now. I think Thune has been a better campaigner this year (he had to be to take on Daschle), but I think we are going to see this one tip just as narrowly to Daschle as it did to Johnson. Oh all the close Senate elections that turned into sudden GOP victories in 2002, only Texas was arguably more reliably Republican than South Dakota. South Dakota is more Presidentially Republican than Georgia (margin-wise), yet it still sent Johnson back to the Senate. I expect to see the same thing repeated there this year, but in Daschle's favor instead.
So, all in all, that brings the Senate to a tie, and with a Kerry presidency (which is looking ever so slightly more likely than another Bush term), Democrats get to break ties in the Senate. I wonder if they'd be able to work out the same sort of power sharing structure they did back in 2000. I bet though that the GOP will try to insist it have the majority until the Massachusetts seat is filled in a special election (that a Democrat would more likely win). Watch the partisan warfare just escalate at that.
Unfortunately, and I'm the first one to be shocked by this, the Senate isn't going to end to get better.
I see us holding NC and FL, and LA will go to a runoff because of GOTV.
Dem pickups in IL, CO, and AK.
GOP pickups in GA, SD, and SC.
It is beyond me how anyone could vote for DeMint, Coburn, or Bunning, but that is what the latest polls have shown.
Why 50-50? I predict Lincoln Chaffee will follow Jefforts and vote with the Dems on most issues.
Dem pickups in IL, CO, OK, and AK.
GOP pickups in GA, SC, and LA. Sorry, but I think there won't be a runoff. If one happens, then I change this to a Dem hold.
50-50 with Edwards as tie-breaker...although that is dependent on the Dems winning a special election in Mass (I think it is past Romney's appointment time). A Chafee defection would put us in the driver's seat for 2006.
No clear favorite-8
No wonder they get 99% correct!
Bush will win here by 10 points at least, but that could help Inez. In my neighborhood, where people openly display "Abortion is Murder" bumper stickers, there are only two houses with Bush signs and only one with a DeMint sign (my neighbor). I am the only one with an Inez sign.
I don't think Republican SC cares about this election as much as Democratic SC. If the moderate voters, even Republican moderates that hate the 23% sales tax idea, can be convinced to vote for Inez, there could be an upset.
I think Coburn is too far to the right even for OK. I think Bunning is toast. My experience is that when people start talking about an incumbent being weak and MAYBE losing, he or she loses. I think NC will be very close. On dailykos I predicted a Dem loss here, but I think with high turnout Bowles will barely win.
We lose: GA, SC, LA, SD (Sorry Tom)
I think all of these but GA will be very close. I like Inez alot and I think she could win very easily. Unfortunately, I think she wont by a tiny fraction. I think Vitter wins in LA tomorrow night. I think Daschle will lose too. I had hoped that the voter irregularities would hurt Thune there because I think SD voters actually care about clean elections, but the polling Ive seen doesnt seem to indicate that it has.
So, a pick up of 1 seat through the election. I think Chafee will probably jump ship after the election giving us a ruling majority.
OK, maybe some of my optimism is forced and just wishful thinking, but I do truly believe we'll at least break even (and if that happens, chafee will likely cross over)...
I agree that we pick up three or four (IL, CO, AK, and maybe OK).
We lose three to five (GA, NC, SC, and maybe LA or SD).
So we could gain one or lose two or anything in between, but it's highly unlikely we take control of the Senate.
But (and now here's my optimism), in a Kerry administration, having a Republican-controlled Congress is not completely a bad thing. Remember how Clinton's popularity soared after we lost control of Congress? Unfortunately, it will stymie him somewhat in his ability to appoint good, progressive judges and SC Justices, but it will also help him prove himself as a true coalition builder after the nightmare of government by exclusion over the past four years.
I should have posted a reply to newt above, who predicted Dem Senate wins in GA, NC, SC, KY, and PA. One or two of those, maybe, if we have a good day tomorrow. Three or more of those, sorry I just don't buy it.
Democrats pick up 2 seats
(Lincoln Chaffee switches to independent within months of Kerry's swearing in also)
For the record that is a net gain of 2 for the GOP to effectively go to 53-47. Sorry guys.
CO - Salazar has always been ahead and wins this one. Thank God there will be no Coors in the Senate. They've done enough damage to this country thank you very much.
NC - I hear Bowles has rebounded, but why did he lose his lead in the first place? I see Burr winning this one.
SC - As much as I love Tennenbaum, where does she win? I see DeMint winning this seat.
OK - Carson should be in the GOP he's so conservative. I'm going with the "if a voter has to choose between a Republican and a Republican, they will choose the Republican everytime."
AK - Bowles has always lead - and whenever you get clever slogans, go with that (referring to the bumper stickers that read "Lisa - Who's Your Daddy?") Bowles.
KY - I really really want Dr. Dan to win this one. But does he have enough time to overcome a two time Cy Young award winner? Have to go with my gut - Bunning.
FL - Castor has pretty much lead, and Martinez is seen as too tied to the President. Castor.
LA - the polls show that Vitter is back down below 50%. If it's a runoff, John should win it thanks to John Breaux. He has pulled the Dems butt out of the fire there sooooo many times he should pay dues to the fire fighters union!
SO basically, the Dems lose a seat. I hope I am wrong!
Dem: FL, CO, SD, AK, NC & OK
Rep: SC, KY
so it'll be 50D - 49R until 12/3
Chaffee joins jeffords
52(D) - 48(R)
Reps pick up:
Makes it 49-49-1
LA goes to run off and Vitter wins.
Edwards is the tie breaker.
Dems gain Illinois, Alaska and Colorado. Lose the Carolinas and Georgia.
Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Illinios
Georgia, South Carolina
Dashle's Victory is going to be wihin 1- 100 votes, look for Republicans to contest the victory
Chris John wins Dem slot
Pending: A Kerry Victory and Lousiana Runoff, will determine whether we maintain control of the Senate
Dems hold SD, FL, and LA (runoff)
Reps pick up GA, NC, and SC
Reps hold on to KY
49-D, 50-R, 1-I