US Senate prediction thread

Make you prediction on the partisan makeup. Jeffords is a Democrat for voting purposes. Currently, 49 (D) - 51 (R), what's it gonna be?

Tags: Senate 2006 (all tags)

Comments

37 Comments

Senate Direction.
Usually, things break hard one way or another in the Senate contests, outside the CW. In 2000, the Democrats picked up 6, in 2002, the Republicans picked up 2. This year, I'll stick with the CW, as I think it looks like a wash.
49(D) - 51(R) No change.

Three takeaways on both sides. Dems retain the seat in Louisiana in the runoff.

For longshots. The upset pick would be Mongiardo in KY. Although, I think it's more likely that Bunning barely slips by, and that Mongiardo becomes the next KY Senator in the special election. On the Republican side, Michels comes a lot closer to knocking off Feingold then looked possible.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-11-01 06:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Senate Direction.
AK: Knowles (+1 D)
CO: Salazar (+1 D)
UT: van Dam (+1 D, okay, Paul's a friend of mine)
SD: Toss-up; guess Daschle (+0)
OK: Carson (+1 D)
IL: Obama (+1 D)
PA: Specter (+0)
MA: Frank (+0)
LA: Kennedy (+0)
WI: Feingold (+0, big win as right-wing R's vote against the so-called Patriot Act)
KY: Mongiardo (+1 D)
NC: Bowles (+0)
SC: Tennenbaum (+0, killing the VAT movement)
GA: Majette (+1 D, Zell's not a D)
FL: Castor (+0)

That's 54R or 55D to 45R or 46R.  If I'm right, I want all you skeptics to bow down Wednesday.

by Newt 2004-11-01 06:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Senate Direction.
I'll kiss your feet if that is right.  I will be too happy to care.
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:35AM | 0 recs
My guess
50-50 with Edwards breaking the tie.
by clawed 2004-11-01 06:13AM | 0 recs
Democrats pickup one.
I tihnk the Democrats will have a one seat gain.  Here's how it works.

The Democrats will certainly pick up in Illinois, Colorado, and Alaska.  Both Okalhoma and Kentucky will be close, but the GOP will eke out wins in both states.  It is possible that Democrats could win both, but I don't think that will happen.  That makes for a gain of three seats.

The GOP will make pickups in Georgia and South Carolina.  Georgia is a definite, while South Carolina will be close, but the GOP will take it.  Louisiana will be a runoff naturally, and the Democrats will take that narrowly, but they will win (I expect it will be Chris John).  In Florida and North Carolina, the Democrats will win narrowly.  I expect Castor to run slightly ahead of Kerry in Florida in fact.  In North Carolina, Bowles has been able to popund bakc hard in the last seventy-two hours, and I think he's got the slightest bit of momentum.  This one will be decided in the thousands of votes.

South Dakota I predict will go to Daschle.  Let us not forget that it was South Dakota that sent Tim Johnson back to the Senate by a margin of about 500 votes in 2002, a year in which Democratic voters were not showing up at the polls.  Johnson was saved by a good turnout from the Native American Reservations, and Daschle has been working on that hard too.  Also, the polls were just as close two years ago as they are now.  I think Thune has been a better campaigner this year (he had to be to take on Daschle), but I think we are going to see this one tip just as narrowly to Daschle as it did to Johnson.  Oh all the close Senate elections that turned into sudden GOP victories in 2002, only Texas was arguably more reliably Republican than South Dakota.  South Dakota is more Presidentially Republican than Georgia (margin-wise), yet it still sent Johnson back to the Senate.  I expect to see the same thing repeated there this year, but in Daschle's favor instead.

So, all in all, that brings the Senate to a tie, and with a Kerry presidency (which is looking ever so slightly more likely than another Bush term), Democrats get to break ties in the Senate.   I wonder if they'd be able to work out the same sort of power sharing structure they did back in 2000.      I bet though that the GOP will try to insist it have the majority until the Massachusetts seat is filled in a special election (that a Democrat would more likely win).  Watch the partisan warfare just escalate at that.

by Matusleo 2004-11-01 06:15AM | 0 recs
53-47 Republicans...
The Democrats win Colorado, Illinois and Alaska, but lose Oklahoma badly. I'm not sure about Kentucky, and I dont know if anyone knows what's going on there. So +3 Dem.
The Republicans win South Carolina and Georgia, as well as South Dakota (unfortunately), Louisiana and North Carolina. Dems keep Florida. +5 GOP

Unfortunately, and I'm the first one to be shocked by this, the Senate isn't going to end to get better.

by FrenchSocialist 2004-11-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
50-50
I'm assuming a huge turnout that disproportionately helps Dems.  

I see us holding NC and FL, and LA will go to a runoff because of GOTV.  

Dem pickups in IL, CO, and AK.  

GOP pickups in GA, SD, and SC.

It is beyond me how anyone could vote for DeMint, Coburn, or Bunning, but that is what the latest polls have shown.

Why 50-50?  I predict Lincoln Chaffee will follow Jefforts and vote with the Dems on most issues.

by shlenny 2004-11-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
OK
Carson's is the better candidate for OK because Coburn is so far right.  The fact that the last prsidential poll in OK shows Bush up 64 to 34, but Coburn has only 45% support averaging the two polls done since Oct. 28, indicates to me that there are a lot of people who have reservations about how far right he is.  I think Carson will pull off a very narrow upset.  
by filadog 2004-11-01 06:25AM | 0 recs
52-48 Republicans
Republicans gain 1 Seat.  
by lynx 2004-11-01 06:45AM | 0 recs
50-50
We hold NC and FL and SD (I think he keeps his job this time, however, I think we will probably see a new majority/minority leader.  That neutering leads to retirement OR a loss in 2010.)  

Dem pickups in IL, CO, OK, and AK.  

GOP pickups in GA, SC, and LA.  Sorry, but I think there won't be a runoff.  If one happens, then I change this to a Dem hold.

50-50 with Edwards as tie-breaker...although that is dependent on the Dems winning a special election in Mass (I think it is past Romney's appointment time).  A Chafee defection would put us in the driver's seat for 2006.

by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 06:52AM | 0 recs
Congressional Quarterly
CQ predicts:

D-45
R-49

No clear favorite-8

No wonder they get 99% correct!

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-11-01 06:53AM | 0 recs
SC GOTV could matter
I am a new SC resident, about to move back to NC (Thank God).

Bush will win here by 10 points at least, but that could help Inez.  In my neighborhood, where people openly display "Abortion is Murder" bumper stickers, there are only two houses with Bush signs and only one with a DeMint sign (my neighbor).  I am the only one with an Inez sign.

I don't think Republican SC cares about this election as much as Democratic SC.  If the moderate voters, even Republican moderates that hate the 23% sales tax idea, can be convinced to vote for Inez, there could be an upset.

by Robert P 2004-11-01 06:54AM | 0 recs
My Picks
We pick up: IL, CO, OK, KY, AK

     I think Coburn is too far to the right even for OK.  I think Bunning is toast.  My experience is that when people start talking about an incumbent being weak and MAYBE losing, he or she loses.  I think NC will be very close.  On dailykos I predicted a Dem loss here, but I think with high turnout Bowles will barely win.

We lose: GA, SC, LA, SD (Sorry Tom)

     I think all of these but GA will be very close.  I like Inez alot and I think she could win very easily.  Unfortunately, I think she wont by a tiny fraction.  I think Vitter wins in LA tomorrow night.  I think Daschle will lose too.  I had hoped that the voter irregularities would hurt Thune there because I think SD voters actually care about clean elections, but the polling Ive seen doesnt seem to indicate that it has.

So, a pick up of 1 seat through the election.  I think Chafee will probably jump ship after the election giving us a ruling majority.

by Andy Katz 2004-11-01 06:57AM | 0 recs
hard break toward dems as they gain 3 seats...
Dems will gain the following seats from the Freepers:
  • AK (Knowles by 4)
  • CO (Salazar by 6, enough to swing CO narrowly into Kerry's column)
  • OK (Carson by 1)
  • IL (Obama by 48, swings Crane and Hyde seats to the Dems)
  • and the biggest surprise of the night, KY, where Mongiardo beats Bunning by 2

we will retain:
  • FL (Castor by 3, matching Kerry's win)
  • NC (Bowles by 5)
  • SD (Daschle by 1)

we will lose:
  • GA (Isaakson beats Majette by 8)
  • SC (DeMint beats Tanenbaum by 6)

LA runoff and MA special election as a result of Kerry's win will both be won by Dems, resulting in a Senate of 51D-48R-II
by jsramek 2004-11-01 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: hard break toward dems as they gain 3 seats...
I used to live in Henry Hyde's district in IL (DuPage County - one of the richest areas of the country).  That district will vote Democratic approximately the same time hell freezes over.  I was there at a community fair in Naperville in 96, and there were Dole/Kemp political groups everywhere handing out posters, pins, etc, and there was NOT ONE Clinton/Gore table at the whole fair.  I thought that was outrageous for a sitting President.  It was the only election that I've ever voted straight ticket (out of spite) without even doing any research on the candidates or issues.
by NJIndependent 2004-11-01 09:37AM | 0 recs
52d-47r-1i
IL: Obama (+1)
CO: Salazar (+1)
AK: Knowles (+1)
OK: Carson (+1)  (i don't get the pessimism here)
KY: Mongiardo (+1)
PA: Hoeffel (+1) (shock of the night)
FL: Castor (even)  (in a walk-off)
SC: Tannenbaum (even) (demint's just too ridiculous)
SD: Daschle (even)
NC: Burr (-1) (bowles seems to be imploding for whatever reason)
GA: Isakson (-1)

OK, maybe some of my optimism is forced and just wishful thinking, but I do truly believe we'll at least break even (and if that happens, chafee will likely cross over)...

by thurst 2004-11-01 07:06AM | 0 recs
knew i forgot something...
LA: Vitter (-1) (call it a bad feeling)

so, 51-48-1...

by thurst 2004-11-01 07:09AM | 0 recs
Prediction

NC: R (R +1)
SC: R (R +2)
GA: R (R +3)

AK: D (R +2)
IL: D (R +1)

by Robert P 2004-11-01 07:13AM | 0 recs
Optimism
Okay, optimism is one thing, but if you want to be the eagle and not the ostrich, you have to take your head out of the sand and see things as they really are.

I agree that we pick up three or four (IL, CO, AK, and maybe OK).

We lose three to five (GA, NC, SC, and maybe LA or SD).

So we could gain one or lose two or anything in between, but it's highly unlikely we take control of the Senate.

But (and now here's my optimism), in a Kerry administration, having a Republican-controlled Congress is not completely a bad thing.  Remember how Clinton's popularity soared after we lost control of Congress?  Unfortunately, it will stymie him somewhat in his ability to appoint good, progressive judges and SC Justices, but it will also help him prove himself as a true coalition builder after the nightmare of government by exclusion over the past four years.

by nocloset 2004-11-01 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Optimism
Not to nitpick, but thinking that the Dems have a decent chance to win back the Senate is not to have one's head in the sand.  IL & GA cancel each other out.  That leaves about five seats on each side which could really go either way...that's quite a large swing.  Admittedly, the two which look the most like longshots go against the Dems, but if Dems come out in large numbers as many of us seem to think, the breaks could easily go our way.      
by thurst 2004-11-01 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Optimism
I agree, it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility to consider the Dems taking back the Senate.

I should have posted a reply to newt above, who predicted Dem Senate wins in GA, NC, SC, KY, and PA.  One or two of those, maybe, if we have a good day tomorrow.  Three or more of those, sorry I just don't buy it.

by nocloset 2004-11-01 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Optimism
Correction: newt didn't predict a Dem win in PA.
by nocloset 2004-11-01 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Optimism
But he did in Utah!
by nocloset 2004-11-01 11:06AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Senate:

Democrats pick up 2 seats
(Lincoln Chaffee switches to independent within months of Kerry's swearing in also)

by adaplant 2004-11-01 07:23AM | 0 recs
Full Senate predictions
AK: Knowles (+1 D)
AR: Lincoln
AZ: McCain
AL: Shelby
CT: Dodd
CA: Boxer
CO: Salazar (+1 D)
FL: Martinez (+1 R)
GA: Isakson (+1 R)
IL: Obama (+1 D)
IA: Grassley
IN: Bayh
ID: Crapo
HI: Inouye
KY: Bunning
KS: Brownback
LA: John in a runoff
MO: Bond
MA: Frank
MD: Mikulski
ND: Dorgan
NY: Schumer
NH: Gregg
NV: Reid
NC: Burr (+1 R)
OK: Coburn
OH: Voinovich
OR: Wyden
PA: Specter
SC: DeMint (+1 R)
SD: Thune (+1 R)
UT: Bennett
VT: Leahy
WI: Feingold
WA: Murray

For the record that is a net gain of 2 for the GOP to effectively go to 53-47. Sorry guys.

by Seth Burn 2004-11-01 07:32AM | 0 recs
and now mine...
Dems 50 - Reps 49 - 1 Ind.

Making it a 51-49 Dem majority.....

by Nazgul35 2004-11-01 07:54AM | 0 recs
Split down the middle
Dems 50 (with Jeffords) Repubs 50 - Edwards to break all ties.  If this happens Chafee may join the Dems or pull a Jeffords so their can be a Majority Leader.
by fred 2004-11-01 07:56AM | 0 recs
50-50
Whether it's settled tomorrow night or in December.
by RT 2004-11-01 08:18AM | 0 recs
My prediction
Well, assume the cancellation of GA and IL, so it comes down to CO, NC, SC, OK, AK, KY, FL & LA.

CO - Salazar has always been ahead and wins this one.  Thank God there will be no Coors in the Senate.  They've done enough damage to this country thank you very much.

NC - I hear Bowles has rebounded, but why did he lose his lead in the first place?  I see Burr winning this one.

SC - As much as I love Tennenbaum, where does she win?  I see DeMint winning this seat.

OK - Carson should be in the GOP he's so conservative.  I'm going with the "if a voter has to choose between a Republican and a Republican, they will choose the Republican everytime."

AK - Bowles has always lead - and whenever you get clever slogans, go with that (referring to the bumper stickers that read "Lisa - Who's Your Daddy?")  Bowles.

KY - I really really want Dr. Dan to win this one.  But does he have enough time to overcome a two time Cy Young award winner?  Have to go with my gut - Bunning.

FL - Castor has pretty much lead, and Martinez is seen as too tied to the President.  Castor.

LA - the polls show that Vitter is back down below 50%.  If it's a runoff, John should win it thanks to John Breaux.  He has pulled the Dems butt out of the fire there sooooo many times he should pay dues to the fire fighters union!

SO basically, the Dems lose a seat.  I hope I am wrong!

by unionmark 2004-11-01 09:53AM | 0 recs
My best guess
Of the 9 still up for grabs:

Dem: FL, CO, SD, AK, NC & OK
Rep: SC, KY

so it'll be 50D - 49R until 12/3

On 12/3

Dem: LA

Before 1/1/05:

Chaffee joins jeffords

Final count:

52(D) - 48(R)

by Master Ninja 2004-11-01 11:55AM | 0 recs
Predictions
Dems pick up:
IL
CO
AK
OK

Reps pick up:
GA
SC

Makes it 49-49-1

LA goes to run off and Vitter wins.

Final 49D-50R-1I
Edwards is the tie breaker.

by asearchforreason 2004-11-01 12:51PM | 0 recs
Status quo
51-48-1.

Dems gain Illinois, Alaska and Colorado.  Lose the Carolinas and Georgia.

by Paleo 2004-11-01 01:00PM | 0 recs
You're forgetting one thing...
Even if the Dems don't win back control, John Mc Cain will be the most powerful republican, chuck hegel will be in the top 10. Both of these guys are good men. Both are highly decorated Viet Nam vets like John Kerry, and both men chaffed under the mis-rule of GWB. The Dems can always throw their support to a moderate Republican to ensure that the Senate remains an august body and not a "know nothing, do nothing" place like the GOP house will surely be.
by Paul Goodman 2004-11-01 01:46PM | 0 recs
Dem Senate in 2004

Dems claim a net of +2

We gain:

Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Illinios

We lose:

Georgia, South Carolina

South Dakota:

Dashle's Victory is going to be wihin 1- 100 votes, look for Republicans to contest the victory

LA:

Chris John wins Dem slot

Pending: A Kerry Victory and Lousiana Runoff, will determine whether we maintain control of the Senate

by Rudy 2004-11-01 01:47PM | 0 recs
Senate
Dems pick up IL, CO, AK, and OK.  

Dems hold SD, FL, and LA (runoff)

Reps pick up GA, NC, and SC

Reps hold on to KY

49-D, 50-R, 1-I

by danielj 2004-11-01 02:12PM | 0 recs
I see the Senate staying R
I think we're defending at least as many close seats as we are threatening to take, so I say it stays 49 (D) - 51 (R).
by EvanstonDem 2004-11-01 06:54PM | 0 recs
Tie...but
It'll be 50-50 but watch out because R.I. Senator Lincoln Chaffee is going to switch to the Dems or may go Indy and caucus with Dems..Chaffee was on Tavis Smiley last week and said he was very dissapointed by the actions of his party.
by joedemocrat 2004-11-01 07:32PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads