US House prediction thread

The CW here is that Republicans gain a few seats, because incumbents rarely lose, the seats are gerrymandered enough to pass on partisan-held open seats, and the Democrats are on the ropes in 5 seats in Texas. Sanders votes Democratic. So, currently it's 206 (D) - 229 (R). Make your prediction.

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

Comments

19 Comments

House call
Believe it or not, the Democrats are going to gain seats in the House. There are just way too many Republicans seats on the table in blue states for at least a few of them to get knocked off.

213 (D) - 222 (R) Democrats pick-up 7 seats. In Texas, I've wanted to go with Frost, but this late Bush visit has me spooked there now, still... Ginny wins. If a Dem gets knocked off, it's going to be Matheson in Utah. Dems take 3 out of 5 in Texas. They split Louisiana run-offs.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-11-01 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: House call
I feel fairly confident that three of the Texas 5 are going to win.

Sandlin
Frost
Edwards

I'm friends with Sandlin and Frost so I can speak with a little more authority on them than I can on Edwards.

Max Sandlin has consistently been ahead of his challenger in the polls. He is a candidate that transcends party affiliation. His constituents love him and the support from the portion of his old district and the rural areas of the new portion support him strongly. Max appears to win by as much as 5 points.

Frost can never be underestimated. His campaign has been one of most efficient and organized grass roots campaigns I have ever seen. Frost is a shrewd politician. Over the years has earned the respect and trust of every constituency in the community, including business AND labor.

Remember Dallas County is very moderate. The current and previous mayors were liberal democrats and TX CD-32 is entirely in Dallas County.

Bush is coming to Dallas tonight because they know Sessions is in trouble. I feel like Frost wins on turnout by 1-2%.

As for Edwards, what I'm reading and reports from my friends is that his opponent's campaign has been so negative it has actually backfired and Edwards appears to be slightly ahead.

I have no intelligence on the other two races. The burntorangereport blog has the best news on the races in TX.

by Joe 2004-11-01 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: House call
Matheson is leading in Utah with 51-41 in the latest Dan Jones poll (the most reliable around here).  Bush will win Utah-2 with about 70% but I meet a lot of Matheson Republicans when I go door to door over there.  And rural Southern Utah (90%+ usual turnout -- really! -- no, really! -- and 80%+ Republican) has been the target of a lot of Matheson appeal lately on Nuclear testing issues (most families there have lost members to downwind cancers) so that turnout will not stick the Dems nearly as much as usual.
by Newt 2004-11-01 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: House call
"And rural Southern Utah (90%+ usual turnout -- really! -- no, really! -- and 80%+ Republican) has been the target of a lot of Matheson appeal lately on Nuclear testing issues"

Heh. Are you sure they aren't reacting negatively to Bush's strong "marriage is between a man and [one] woman" stand?

by Ottnott 2004-11-01 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: House call
The polygamists vote 100% Republican.  They need a party in power that will decline to prosecute when they are caught raping and imprisoning teenaged girls and so far the R's are with them on that.  The men vote the women's ballots so there's no chance anyone will vote for her daughters' freedom in the privacy of the voting booth.
by Newt 2004-11-01 09:54AM | 0 recs
210-225
BOO!!!!!!!!
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 06:39AM | 0 recs
231-204 Republicans
Republicans gain 2
by lynx 2004-11-01 06:51AM | 0 recs
CQ says Republicans gain 1-8 !
R- 230
D- 198

No Clear Favorite- 7

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-11-01 06:56AM | 0 recs
dems gain seats, but won't be enough...
Dems gain 8 seats to result in 221R-213D-II
by jsramek 2004-11-01 07:04AM | 0 recs
Re: dems gain seats, but won't be enough...
I meant to add that it won't be enough, unless this truly is a 1980 redux, in which case, enough GOP incumbents might fall tomorrow to narrowly retake the House.  I'm not holding my breath, but being that pigs are now flying up in Boston, I wouldn't dismiss the possibility out of hand.  This country's really sour on the GOP as we should see tomorrow night.
by jsramek 2004-11-01 07:46AM | 0 recs
Stays the same, but DeLay goes on the 2006 list
I think it'll be status quo. But one big story emerging will be that if DeLay wins he gets put on the vulnerable list for 2006.

Campaign Money Watch has been running this:

http://www.campaignmoney.org/media/2004/texas_radio.htm

by ddonnelly 2004-11-01 07:07AM | 0 recs
Prediction
House:

Toughest Call!

In the surprise of the election, Kerry's coattails and a huge democratic turnout surge give dems back the house, albeit by a razor thin margin.

by adaplant 2004-11-01 07:23AM | 0 recs
House Makeup
Too much to go race by race. GOP gains 3 overall.
by Seth Burn 2004-11-01 07:43AM | 0 recs
Dems
pick up 10 seats.  Repubs 219 Dems 216(include independent Sanders of Vermont)
by fred 2004-11-01 07:55AM | 0 recs
and mine....
Dems close the gap to within five seats...

215 (D) - 220 (R)

by Nazgul35 2004-11-01 07:57AM | 0 recs
In more local news
All I know is that the house in New Mexico seems to be pretty safe.  At least I don't think Heather Wilson or Tom Udall are going anywhere, but I forget what's up with the third guy we have.  He's probably safe too, as an election that's even slightly more interesting than "Incumbent will get re-elected by a landslide" would have made headlines by now.
by Kjorteo 2004-11-01 12:23PM | 0 recs
Washington State
I predict a Dem pickup of 2 seats in Washington State.

In WA-05, the seat vacated by George Nethercutt so he could run for Senate (you'll remember him as the one who unseated Speaker Tom Foley in 1994 with his term limit promise, and then broke his promise by running in 2000) turns blue.  I don't know much about that district, because it's in the eastern part of the state, including Spokane, but what I've read suggests that Barbieri has the edge over McMorris.

In WA-08, the seat vacated by Jennifer Dunn (a leading Dubya supporter) will go blue for the first time ever.  Dave Ross, a popular radio talk-show personality, will defeat Dave Reichert, the King County Sheriff.  But it'll be close.  This is mainly the suburbs east of Seattle: Microsoft Land.

All other Washington seats (1 red, 6 blue) will be won by incumbents.

by nocloset 2004-11-01 12:40PM | 0 recs
R 221--D214 for a net gain of 8
+Schrader
+Barend
+3or4 of the Texas 5 to name a few
 we hold most of our seats
after the 1st of the year, DeLay upset as Majority Leader, then after losing his power base, witnesses come out of the woodwork to squeal on his frauds, and he goes to Federal Prison, and is expelled from the House.
by JeffSCinNY 2004-11-01 01:25PM | 0 recs
Repubs pick up 2 in pyhrric victory
I don't expect much from the P. Diddy wing of teh party in '06, but the dems will regain both houses in '08, provided they maintain there discipline and govern from the center.
by Paul Goodman 2004-11-01 01:52PM | 0 recs

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