Presidential prediction thread

Let's have some fun with predictions. This is the Presidential thread, the threads for the Senate, House, and Governor are below.

Don't wimp out like Stuart Rothenberg because it's too close to call. Surely, there's something in the guys gut! Anyway, make your prediction, if you are right, then glory goes to you. If wrong, no matter, only one person out of 100 is going to be exactly right in this election.

Also, feel free to post any other pundits predictions in the thread, we'll find out who gets lucky.

So, who is going to be the next President, and what is the EV count going to be?  I'll go first.

Update (Chris): I'll be giving my final Presidential projections at around 9:00 pm Eastern. I won't bother with the final tweaks to Zogby and Rasmussen daily tracking tomorrow.

Tags: General 2008 (all tags)

Comments

167 Comments

Presidential Choice
The Dem-leaning CW choice would be to go with all the 2000 states remaining the same, and Kerry picking up Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire, for a 301-237 victory. I'm going to go with something a bit different.  Things are so close in about 10 states, that there are bound to be surprises.

First, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida are too close to call election night. Bush wins Wisconsin; Kerry wins Nevada (convincingly), New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Colorado is also too close to call. That leaves the election at Kerry leading Bush 238-223 with 77 uncalled. Three weeks later, it's apparent that Kerry leads in at least 3 of the 4 contested states, and concedes to Kerry, who wins 294-244.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-11-01 06:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Presidential Choice
I'm in Colorado and sorry it is going to Bush. The only FAINT hope is that Salazar pulls ahead convincingly and pulls some votes for Kerry but the likelihood is Kerry loses here and Salazar wins. For me, the SW states all go to Bush unless there really are a lot of unpolled voters in NM. Our focus is on Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin. I see Iowa as a toss-up too but leaning to Mr. lack of responsibility
by joeferguson 2004-11-01 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Presidential Choice
I am in Colorado too and don't you believe it is going to Bush.  I have never seen such enthusiastic workers.  We will get out the vote.  From my telephone banking, I know that Democrats are worked up and will vote.  Don't velieve the polls.
by Mohawk 2004-11-01 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Presidential Choice
Sorry, I can't see it. Not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic. Unless Republicans stay home and independents break huge this state stays red. We can GOTV as much as we want, we just don't have the numbers. Dems are certainly motivated and that looks good for the state in the future, I just think we are one election away from turning this around.
by joeferguson 2004-11-01 08:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Presidential Choice
I'm betting on 325 (with my heart) which includes NV , NM, CO, OH, and FL.  The enthusiam in Nevada is tremendous.  I see so many more bumper stickers than  ever before.

Kerry takes the entire Union (Civil War) minus WV.

PV is 52-47

by beeste 2004-11-01 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Presidential Choice
That should read, "The Dem-leaning CW choice would be to go with all the 2000 states remaining the same, and Kerry picking up Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire, for a 311-227 victory."

It's the game-face prediction;)

But I think the other one is more interesting.

by Jerome Armstrong 2004-11-01 05:32PM | 0 recs
My prediction
I think Kerry will sweep all the 8 swing states:

FL, OH, PA, WI, IA, NV, NM, and NH and give us a huge surprise.

by ddPCR 2004-11-01 06:10AM | 0 recs
Prediction
I think we're going to know reasonably early on Wednesday, with the only contested states being Wisconsin and Ohio.

Kerry will keep all of the Gore states and pick up the following:

--New Hampshire, easily, with about 51%
--Florida, much easier than expected, with a hair over 50%
--and the night's biggest surprise is Arkansas, which goes Democrat by a hair.

Meanwhile, around 11 p.m. we're going to start to get good indications, those being that Kerry is keeping the states of W.Va. and Va. very close, within 1% point of winning -- compared with 6% and 8% advantages for Bush last time.

Ohio will be resolved mid-Wednesday especially after it's clear that Bush has already lost; Kerry wins Ohio 49%-48%, and squeaks by in Wisconsin by about 0.5%.

Close but no cigar in Arizona, Nev., and Colorado, and a close race in Missouri as well.

Kerry, 317-221.

by TheGaffer 2004-11-01 06:14AM | 0 recs
it won't even be close
kerry - 311,  bush - 227
by deedee 2004-11-01 06:15AM | 0 recs
Re: it won't even be close
Agreed. Kerry with 51.5 of the popular vote, Bush around 47.
by Robwaldeck 2004-11-01 06:48AM | 0 recs
Huh?
"Bush" concedes to Kerry, who wins 294-244?

Why, pray, do you think Kerry losses Wisconsin but wins Nevada?

by SavageView 2004-11-01 06:15AM | 0 recs
Kerry will be the Next President
Electoral Vote:

Kerry: 320
Bush:  215

Senate
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 48
Independent: 1

by markieparkie 2004-11-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
All over by Wednesday morning
306 - 232

Bush gets WI

Kerry - all the others in play, including NV & NM

by fatbear 2004-11-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re: All over by Wednesday morning
Forgot

PV - 50.4 to 47.2 - 2.4 to the 3rds

by fatbear 2004-11-01 06:40AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Kerry wins: NH, OH, WI, MN, PA, MI, HI, OR, WA
Bush wins: FL, NM, IA, CO, WV, VA, AR, AZ, NV

EV:

Kerry 272
Bush 266

PV: 49 % each, 2% others

by Mark Fulwiler 2004-11-01 06:16AM | 0 recs
I endorse this prediction
This has been my prediction for a couple of weeks now. The only change I'd make is in the popular vote -- 50% Kerry, 48.8% Bush, 1.2% other.
by rusty 2004-11-01 07:48AM | 0 recs
New Senate
Republicans: 52
Democrats: 47
Ind.: 1
by Mark Fulwiler 2004-11-01 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: New Senate
NO LIKEY!!!!!!!
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 06:22AM | 0 recs
prediction
304 to Kerry with Ohio, Penn and Fl; 234 to Bush with Iowa.  We'll know before the sun rises on Wednesday.
by SavageView 2004-11-01 06:19AM | 0 recs
Well, I will guess something closer
277-261 as Jeb steals Florida again.
by clawed 2004-11-01 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Well, I will guess something closer
But, it doesn't matter because Kerry wins anyway.
by clawed 2004-11-01 06:20AM | 0 recs
Kerry win EV, Bush win PV
I predict: Bush will win by 0.5% in the popular vote.

In electoral college, Kerry will win Florida and Ohio and Wisconsin, to lose Iowa and New Mexico. Pennsylvania, Michigan and NJ will go Dem and WV, VA, NC will go GOP. Nevada may be the suprise.

That would give Kerry a 299-239 victory if I'm not mistaken.

by FrenchSocialist 2004-11-01 06:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry win EV, Bush win PV
That is my dream scenario.  I hope Bush wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral vote.  That would be karma in action.  I would give them 4 years to get over it, as I remind them of the wisdom of our Founding Fathers(&Mothers) in creating the Electoral College.
by Tundraman 2004-11-01 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry win EV, Bush win PV
Yeah, revenge is all and good, but wouldn't you rather have a MANDATE with a nice EV victory and the Popular Vote victory vs. the way Bush won.  Only energizes the GOP for 2006 and 8
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry win EV, Bush win PV
I agree. Screw Bush winning the popular vote.
by TheGaffer 2004-11-01 08:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry win EV, Bush win PV
mandate, schmandate. the Republicans in Congress won't care if Kerry wins by one EV or a hundred. they'll block as much as they can of what he tries to do either way.
by johnny longtorso 2004-11-01 10:08AM | 0 recs
299-239
299-239

Kerry takes OH and Florida and NH (by a squeaker)
Bush takes IA and NM.  

by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 06:20AM | 0 recs
Re: 299-239
Kerry wins 49%-48%  Nader gets 1% Bendarik gets 1-1.5% and rest .5%
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: 299-239
New Mexico is going for Kerry.

I am in Albuquerque, and the momentum here for Kerry is big.  I have been canvassing with hundreds of volunteers this week and things look good.  The latest Albuquerque Journal (our only big newspaper) poll puts kerry ahead, and we have a democratic majority as far as registration numbers go.

Clinton was here for a crowd of thousands, while turnout for Cheney was only 1000.

Dont call NM for Bush just yet.  

http://www.electoral-vote3.com/states/new-mexico.html

http://www.nowchannel.com/state/?s=New+Mexico

by phemfrog 2004-11-01 06:35AM | 0 recs
Re: 299-239
I'm sure there are Freepers saying the same thing about Florida and Ohio.  I just made my prediction.  I hope I am wrong and Iowa and NW both vote Kerry.
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 07:51AM | 0 recs
311-227
311-227
by RF 2004-11-01 06:21AM | 0 recs
K 289 - B 249
by chuck 2004-11-01 06:26AM | 0 recs
Kerry wins
Popular vote Kerry 51%, Bush 47%

Kerry 311
Bush 226 (because the West Virginia elector will withhold his vote).

by PonyFan 2004-11-01 06:28AM | 0 recs
Kerry 279, Bush 259
Everything as in 2000, except NM (Bush), NH (Kerry), and OH (Kerry), all states won by close but decent margins (at least 7000 votes).

Bush wins the popular vote by a hair - <10,000 out of 120 million. Bush statesmanlikely concedes the election. For three months, right wing media bombards the nation, saying democrats are hypocrites - when their guy won the popular vote, they argued that they won,  but now that the tables are turned, they still think they won. Of course, they'll conveniently forget to mention that they argued the exact opposite four years ago, and got their way.

by bushsucks 2004-11-01 06:31AM | 0 recs
Kerry, of course
Start with the common belief that Kerry takes Gore states + NH + OH + FL for 311.  To make it interesting, I predict Kerry will also take NV (since I GOTV'd there this weekend) and... Virginia for 329 EV.  Turnout is huge, giving the popular vote to Kerry, 51.5%-47.5%.
by CA Pol Junkie 2004-11-01 06:33AM | 0 recs
Kerry 365-173
All the swing states go to Kerry, plus AZ, CO, VA, AR, all due to massive turnout of over 120,000,000 votes and a 10,000,000 margin to Kerry.
by Tuba Les 2004-11-01 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry 365-173
Les, you are unrealistic.  But I'd love to drink some of your kool-aid on Wed. morning.  Here's to the good guys winning!
by Robwaldeck 2004-11-01 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry 365-173
Oh right, I forgot Poland! Actually when you consider the major groups that have not been counted, new voters, cell phone, overseas and the recent bad news for Bush (explosives, OBL looking fit) I could have gone higher. So if LA or Texas (ha!) goes blue, you will all be why I was too conservative. Kool Aid all around! OommmPAHHH
by Tuba Les 2004-11-01 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry 365-173
Don't forget Texas...They flip and elect Kerry.  Yea!!!!!
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 07:53AM | 0 recs
Kerry 311, Bush 227
Kerry gets 50.5% and Bush gets 48.5% popular vote. Badnarik gets same votes as Nader and total 1%.
by elrod 2004-11-01 06:35AM | 0 recs
President Kerry, Attorney General Spitzer
First order of business is to clean up the election system in this country.
by patch in bklyn 2004-11-01 06:38AM | 0 recs
312-226...
Kerry takes every Gore state but New Mexico, and adds New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, and Arkansas.  Virginia, West Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado are close, but eventually go to Bush.  Popular vote will be approximately 51-47.  Bush will concede by midnight.
by KTinOhio 2004-11-01 06:45AM | 0 recs
Kerry Wins
POPULAR VOTE
KE 50.7
BC 48.5

EVS

KE 322 (All Gore + NH, OH, FL and my surprise-MO.
BC 216

by Andy Katz 2004-11-01 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry Wins
I meant to put Bush at 47.5
by Andy Katz 2004-11-01 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry Wins
Sorry, one last prediction.  Turnout is HUGE, around 125,000,000
by Andy Katz 2004-11-01 07:05AM | 0 recs
Kerry Wins 316-222
Popular vote K:51.2% B:46.9% N/O:1.9%
by zoyd 2004-11-01 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry Wins 316-222
Exactly what I was going to guess.
by joeesha 2004-11-01 07:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry Wins 316-222
Forgot the battleground predicts, K wins:

FL HI IA ME MI MN NJ NH NM OH OR PA WA WV WI

by zoyd 2004-11-01 09:31AM | 0 recs
311-227 Kerry
K: OH, FL, PA, MI, IA, WI, MN, NV, NH
B: NM, CO, MO

The big surprises could be in CO and MO (if they don't shutdown polls in St. Louis again).

by shlenny 2004-11-01 06:49AM | 0 recs
predictions
PV
Kerry: 49.8
Bush: 48.8
Badnarik: approx. 0.7
Nader:approx 0.6
others: 0.1

EV= Kerry: 312
    Bush : 226

Bush gets NM, Kerry wins the rest of Gore states, get OH, FL, NH and AR.

Arkansas is the surprise, Va and West Va. are close

Senate: 50 Republicans
        49 Democrats(and Jeffords)
LA run-off in Dec. and this assumes Kerry's seat stay democratic.  

by jp2 2004-11-01 06:55AM | 0 recs
not even close...
K/E: 51.3%
B/C: 47.2%
Nader: 0.8%
Others: 0.7%

Turnout: ~125 million

Kerry 320- Bush 218

  • all Gore 2000 states
  • NH by 53%
  • FL by 51%
  • OH by 50%
  • biggest surprise of the night is CO in a reverse coattails effect of Salazar, Kerry wins by 49-48% while proportional EV referendum loses

I agree with a previous poster that Kerry will keep things very close in VA, WV and AR, and that we'll know by 11pm or midnight that Kerry's our next president!
by jsramek 2004-11-01 06:55AM | 0 recs
EarthX &quot;Conservative&quot; Prediction
311 Kerry and 227 Bush

Kerry gets close in most of those Bush battlegrounds, but ends up with all Gore states + NH, OH & FL.

50.1% for just barely enough to say "mandate."
Of course, Bush acted like he had a claim to that word last time...

by EarthX 2004-11-01 06:57AM | 0 recs
Kerry 291, Bush 247
I spent a few hours carefully going over all recent polls. My predictions are available here. They will be updated with today's polls by midnight tonight (PST).

All recent polls were used. I have tried to keep the predictions balanced, but I used two rules that may be considered pro-Kerry. (1) the rule of the incumbent that says the incumbent must be doing over 48% to be safe, and (2) the undecided voter rule that says the undecided vote breaks about 3/5 to 2/3 in favor of the challenger. I used these rules because they are empirically about right and make good sense.

Results in a nutshell (listing swing states only):

Kerry takes PA, FL, IA, MN, MI, NH, NM, WI. Total 291

Bush takes OH, AR, AZ, CO Total 247

If Bush wins FL, he wins. But, if Bush wins FL and Kerry wins OH, Kerry still wins (284, 254). Otherwise, Kerry can lose any one close state and still win (the closest would be if Kerry lost PA over my baseline predictions, leaving 270 to 268, but yesterday PA looked very good for Kerry).

I have included projected numbers of voters in each state. Overall, I have the popular vote estimated to be 49.26% Kerry, 48.28% Bush, and 2.46% Nader and others. By contrast, the 2000 vote was 48.38% Gore, 47.87% Bush, 2.75% Nader and others.

Total voter turnout is projected to be 113,431,958 votes--perhaps a little on the high side, but I believe voters are highly motivated this election.

Need comic relief or anger management? Check out the collection of anti-bush, anti-war media at pawnplay.com/media.html

by djholman 2004-11-01 06:59AM | 0 recs
Predictions
This isn't original in this space now, but I'm going with:

Kerry-Edwards 299
Bush-Cheney 239

OH, PA, FL, WI, MI, NH to KE04
IA, NM, NV, WV, AR, CO to BC04

Kerry-Edwards win 50.1% of the popular vote to 48.6% for Bush-Cheney.

by dfaris 2004-11-01 06:59AM | 0 recs
The 7PM (eastern) Surprise
The big surprise will be Virginia voting for Kerry.

I predict Kerry 349, Bush 189, with AR, WV, VA, FL, OH, PA, NV, IA, WI, MI, MN all won by President-elect Kerry.

by An American in Berlin 2004-11-01 07:07AM | 0 recs
Prediction
I say Kerry, 306-232:  takes the big 3, but loses NM.  Gets 50.8% of the vote.
by Plev 2004-11-01 07:08AM | 0 recs
PREDICTIONS
Kerry 336 (Includes AZ AR NV NM)

Bush 202 (Cries like a baby Wednesday Morning)

by ROGNM 2004-11-01 07:10AM | 0 recs
Kerry will be elected
I am more cautious in my predictions.

Kerry 277, taking OH, PA, MI, WI, NM, and MN.
Bush 261, retaining FL

Popular vote:

Bush 49, Kerry 49.  Bush may eek out a higher vote count.  

I hope I am way off and it's a Kerry landslide, so I can go to bed early and happy! I think there is a definite potential for huge Kerry win if we can GOTV from newly registered and young voters.

Keep our fingers crossed!!!!

by sbbonerad 2004-11-01 07:15AM | 0 recs
Electoral predictions
I see 279-259 Kerry. Unlees there REALLY is something the pollsters are missing Bush takes NM and Iowa. The concerns? Obviously Ohio and Florida but also Wisconsin. I dread my 279-259 scenario goes 269-269 with Bush winning Wisconsin. Surely, if Kerry can sweep Ohio, Fla and Penn it is over. To be realistic I'll give Ohio to Bush for  now but for me it lloks like a dead heat.
by joeferguson 2004-11-01 07:16AM | 0 recs
Longstanding...
...prediction - in fact, the basis of a bet with a buddy, made back in July: the winner will get between 310 and 320 EV.  This now looks shaky, but I am sticking with it: Kerry 316 (or 316 - epsilon, where epsilon - number of faithless electors), Bush 222.  
There is now no way Bush gets more than 276.

Wed am it will be clear who the winner is (Kerry) altho the GOP may challenge (and win) a few states.

Kerry >= 50% pop vote.

Youth vote: greater than 2000 in total, less in %-age.

Senate: Dems lose 1 seat (Vitter, essentially)

House: Dems pick up 3-5 seats.

All definition-of-marriage props pass handily, as does stem-cell in CA.  Anti-immigrant in AZ squeaks by.

What other chopping block have I forgotten to put my neck on?

by livetoad 2004-11-01 07:18AM | 0 recs
325 - 213 Kerry
I went back and updated my final predicitions.  My oh-so-scientific methods (see below) tell me:

Kerry:  325
Bush: 213

Kerry wins all the big battlegrounds:

  1. Florida
  2. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa
  3. Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado  (!!!)
(as you might guess, I think he'll easily win MN, MI, PA, NH and all the other silly distractions the media has worried about, like HI and NJ)

Bush wins Arizona, Missouri, West Virginia, and Arkansas.  While Kerry can get to 325 with fairly reasonable assumptions, its substantially harder for Kerry to win one of these four (or any other Dem dream like VA or NC).  If he goes over 325, he'll only do it in a landslide.

METHODS:  Last two weeks of state-by-state polling, weighted by sample size, averaged.  Excludes Gallup, Mason-Dixon, all partisans.  Includes robopolls and Zogby state tracking polls (4 day intervals, ending 10/24, 10/28, and 10/31 - yes, it ends up double counting his Thursday 10/28 sample).

First I add 2.5 points to Kerry for the voters who are not being properly sampled in the electorate: youth, poor, minorities, and the newly-registered.  Then I find Bush's poll share.  Then, I estimate the percentage of the non-Bush-Kerry vote that will be 3P.  (I'm projecting 1.2% total).  Then I estimate what percent of the remainder is likely to choose to Bush (I estimate 20% - Kerry wins non-3P undecideds 4:1).  Then, after adding the portion of D-or-R-undecideds that Bush will pick up to his share of the total D-R vote, I check if Bush can clear 50%.

In this model, Bush's two-party vote share looks like this:

54.12    TN
52.30    WV
51.30    AZ
50.87    AR
50.52    MO
48.88    NV
48.25    CO
48.22    NM
47.89    OH
47.35    IA
47.29    FL
47.19    WI
45.50    NH
45.48    MN

You can see, there's a big break between Nevada and Missouri.  Kerry is within striking distance in Nevada.  Missouri and the rest are just too far out of reach.

by Silent E 2004-11-01 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: 325 - 213 Kerry
Note: I excluded Mason-Dixon because their results are so skewed they seem partisan.  I excluded Gallup because of the problems in their LV model.  Although many of their final state results are pro-Kerry, their volatility is so great that it distorts the projections -- especially the huge-margin outliers they seem to produce with regularity.
by Silent E 2004-11-01 07:25AM | 0 recs
Re: 325 - 213 Kerry
I have been working on the GOTV in MO and I can tell you were are hopeful. STL turnout is expected to be 90% - the Dem STL city/county areas can negate the rural GOP vote IF turnout is high enough. I think we have a shot.
by Glic 2004-11-01 02:51PM | 0 recs
Oops! I forgot one prediction...
...no matter who wins, the heads will talk mainly about how this underlines/puts the lie to "Rove is a genius".  This election is a referendum on Rove, not the empty suit (hat?) Bush.
by livetoad 2004-11-01 07:21AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Not Even Close

Out on a limb:

Popular Vote:

Kerry 51.3%
Bush 46.9%
Other 1.8%

Electoral Vote:

Kerry 316
Bush 222
Other 0

by adaplant 2004-11-01 07:22AM | 0 recs
President Kerry
It will be President Kerry.

PV  -  51.3%
EV  -  311

What will come as a shock is that there will be no litigation, there will be no long, nervous night, and there will be no doubt that the country has rejected Bush/Cheney.

Look for bigger than predicted Kerry margins in Ohio and Florida, and for much head scratching in the SCLM over how badly the polls did at reading the electorate.

by James Earl 2004-11-01 07:24AM | 0 recs
prediction
I'm with 'American in Berlin' -  Kerry's margin is going to be bigger than expected.  There is so much anecdotal evidence of Republican dissatisfaction with Bush.  A big part of his 2000 base is either staying home or voting for Kerry, and I don't think he has motivated enough fundie wingnuts to take up the slack.
by global yokel 2004-11-01 07:24AM | 0 recs
Kerry wins big
Kerry wins 54-46

Wins EV 396-142
Picking Up Ohio, NH, Florida, Arkansas, Virginia, North Carolina, Arizona, Mssouri, Colorado, Nevada, West Virginia

Senate
Dems +1 and Louisina decides Senate

by leftwingCali 2004-11-01 07:25AM | 0 recs
Kerry - 339 / Bush - 199
Kerry Wins in:

OH PA & FL
MN, WI & MI
CO & NV
IA & AR
NH & HI
and surprise, VA!

Bush "prevails" in:

NV, MO & WV, plus the usual suspects...

by Sub Aviator 2004-11-01 07:26AM | 0 recs
My only question mark is Iowa
Kerry in a landslide - as a very involved Clevelander, I am sure that Cleveland and the entire Cuyahoga County are going to tip Ohio for Kerry in a big way.

WI, MN and NM are undoubtedly going to go for Kerry, making it 304 to 234. With Iowa, that would be 311 to 227, but I am just not sure about Iowa - to me, it is the ultimate wildcard.

by iulianb 2004-11-01 07:27AM | 0 recs
Kerry Wins!
Yesterday I had him over 300 votes, but reduced that prediction today, based on the latest numbers:

Kerry: 290
Bush: 248

Kerry Battleground: NJ, OH, MI, WI, MN, IA, NM, HI, WA, OR, NH

Bush Battleground: FL, MO, NV, AZ

Suprise Kerry: AR

Suprise Bush: none.

Basis of prediction on polls, gut, Gore 2000 states.

Additionally, expecting a break for the candidates one way or the other.  Basically, Bush or Kerry will probably break 300 as close states will tend to break one way.  I think that the heartland (IA, MI, WN) are going to come home to Kerry with the economy really affecting their vote. HI I keep thinking is an aberration but could go to Bush.  FL/OH scare me.  I think there is a good chance Kerry could win both..or lose both.  I think there are scenarios Kerry could win without either FL/OH..BUT most likely if they break one way..then it is Bush's night and he wil get the rest of the close states.

by pazman 2004-11-01 07:28AM | 0 recs
Kerry 336, Bush 202
I see it this way:

Kerry gets the West - HI, WA, OR, CA are all givens (yes, even Hawai'i). He picks up NV because of Yucca Mountain, holds on to NM (Gov. Richardson is pulling out the stops there and the Hispanci vote will go for him), and adds CO (look at the size of the rallies there).

Midwest: Kerry gets MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, and OH. Tight in Ohio, but since the GOP lost its wholesale challenge fight they won't be able to suppress voters so easily. Also, Diebold machines are not being used in the heavily Democratic areas.

Northeast and NE are solid Kerry: PA (looks good there), NY, NJ, MD, DC, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME, NH (espcially after Bob Smith's ringing endorsement). I'll add WV because of health concerns (more miner deaths under Bush) and Byrd.

South FL and AR. Voting reports are making Kerry's FL margin too high for Jeb to fudge, and Clinton is rallying them in AR (which was tied before be got there).

Popular vote is harder for me, but I'll say 52-48 Kerry.

by DanK 2004-11-01 07:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry 336, Bush 202
I forgot one point: Everyone's worried about the "Nader factor" but the real surprise will be Badnarik, who isn't getting any polling attention. But he's on the ballot in more states than Nader, and he's a great magnet for Bush 2000 voters who can't stand Bush this time but don't want to vote for Kerry.

Last thought (hah!) Much as I like the idea of poetic justice in Bush winning the PV but losing the EV, if Kerry is going to have any chance of healing the country's Bush-inflicted wounds he needs the PV as well.

by DanK 2004-11-01 07:43AM | 0 recs
Down to the absolute wire
Popular Vote: Kerry 49.1, Bush 49.0

Electoral Vote:
Kerry wins NH, PA, PH, MI, WI, MN
Bush wins FL, IA, NM

So we all think that Kerry has won... UNTIL it turns out Bush wins Hawaii!  That gives him 270, to Kerry's 268.  Litigation and hilarity ensues... UNTIL the elctoral college meets and a WV faithless elector gives his Bush vote to McCain, thus denying Bush a majority in the electoral college.  So it's thrown to the House!  There, McCain takes on Bush and...

OK, I'm getting a little punchy.

by BigModerate 2004-11-01 07:32AM | 0 recs
Kerry will win 284-263
by Mohawk 2004-11-01 07:33AM | 0 recs
Presidential race
Kerry wins 302-236.  Kerry takes home FLA, Ohio and NH, but loses NM.  Close but no cigar for NV, CO, ARK, and VA.
by CVDem 2004-11-01 07:37AM | 0 recs
My 2 cents
An optimist's view:

National estimates of Kerry/Bush tied at 48 turn out to be off by 4 due to samples not being truly random.  The same phenomenon was seen in 2000, only now it is worse.  So, truly random samples would be showing 50-46.  Undecideds break 3-1 for Kerry but many stay home due to long polling lines.  Voter turnout exceeds 1960 percentages.

Republicans experience a blowback effect as a result by their voter surpression tactics.  Highly-motivated Dems are now willing to stand in long lines, don't back down to challenges, and are more likely to vote a straight ticket.  Extensive Dem monitoring is used to prevent digital voter fraud.

Result: Kerry takes national numbers 54-45.  Wins all the close states (FL, OH, PA, MI, MN, WI, IO, NH, NM, OR) and a few reaches (MO, AK).

Coattail effect is real due to motivated Dems voting the straight ticket.  Senate deadlocks at 50-50 (Jeffords on Dem's side), giving Dems the lead with Edwards' VP vote.  Dems gain 3 in the House.

by AmberChaos 2004-11-01 07:37AM | 0 recs
The GOTV is going to blow us all away....
Kerry 316 -- 222 Bush
We win all the ACT states (except for MO and WVA, alas).

Kerry also wins the popular vote by more than Gore won in 2000.

The turnout is going to make us feel like we live in a real live democracy.

by mpage 2004-11-01 07:43AM | 0 recs
Presidential Race predictions
Closest 5 states:

New Mexico
Florida
Iowa
Wisconsin
Ohio

Bush wins the top 3, Kerry wins the bottom 2. Final score Kerry 272, Bush 266.

Final score is also 49-49 with Kerry winning the % very slightly.

by Seth Burn 2004-11-01 07:48AM | 0 recs
Probably jynxing the whole thing
but here goes:

Kerry wins with 311 electoral votes. The election will be called 1 hour after the Midwest state's polls close....

Kerry wins FL, OH, PA, MI, AR (upset), WI, MI (squeeker)....

Don't know if it adds up to 311 (but that is the number that sticks in my head for some reason...

by Nazgul35 2004-11-01 07:52AM | 0 recs
Who's predicting 4 more years
I see you are all predicting a Kerry win.
-----------
I predict 4 peaceful and prosperous years, with the stock market, job market and economy moving again.
When a US president goes to hostile place like China or The Palestinian Authority, and gets a royal welcome.
Yes, I envision 4 years when terror is reduced to a nuisance  
It's not my job to worry about terror all the time, Let the president and his staff worry about it quietly, just like pre Y2K (not pre 9/11, when terror was not even a nuisance to this president)
People will be able to visit Europe and be proud of their American passport.
I can't wait.
------------
I just hope Kerry will have the guts to cut our losses and run, or else we should turn Liberal Blogosphere into Kerry's worst nightmare, even worse than his Swiftvets enemies
by rolnitzky 2004-11-01 07:59AM | 0 recs
Weather Forecast for Nov. 2
I have overlaid the Nov 2., 2004 forecast map with the 2000 Election Results breakdown by county:

http://www.mydd.com/files/user/1975/nov2_weather.JPG

and here is the weather.com source map:

http://www.mydd.com/files/user/1975/weather.com_forecast.jpg

...it looks like MI & OH (here in Toledo that is) are going to have a wet day. This isn't any fun for me since I'll be out driving people to the polls in it :(, but I still think Kerry will win 303 to 235.

-T "Dubya" Ault

by T Dubya Ault 2004-11-01 07:59AM | 0 recs
Morning in America
I'm feeling very good about this election and the news of the early voting in Florida has me juiced.  I think the newly registered voters are what is going to not just turn this thing for Kerry but blow Bush away!

Its morning in America and our long national nightmare is almost over!

Kerry is going to win all of New England and most of the Midwest except MO and IN.  

Thats right Ohio, Wisconsin, and IA are all going for Kerry.  By the by, Michigan and PA were never going for Bush.

And of course, the west coast Cali., Oregon, Washington, and even Hawaii are going Blue too!

I used to think Florida was going to be tied up in endless litigation, but after seeing the get out the vote effort take hold in the early voting I think the margin of victory is going to be huge.  Kerry will win by 4 or 5 percent, not 1 half of one percent!

Onward to Victory!!!!

Popular Vote: Kerry 53% Bush 46% and of course Nader 1%

P.S. that Bear in the woods in John Kerry getting ready to eat some wolves!!!!

by edog9 2004-11-01 08:00AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Kerry - 304  Bush - 234

Battlegrounds:

Kerry gets PA, FL, OH, WI, MN, MI, NH, and NM

Bush gets CO, NV, IA, AR, AZ and MO

I don't consider any west coast states battleground.  Same for NJ and HI.

by Outlander 2004-11-01 08:04AM | 0 recs
KERRY
Kerry - 311
Bush  - 227

Kerry keeps all Gore states and picks up New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida(sic).  If the gale force winds are blowing as hard as I think they are then he could add Nevada, Colorado, West Virginia and Arkansas.

by fred 2004-11-01 08:04AM | 0 recs
My Prediction
Kerry 51%
Bush 48%

Kerry 296 EV's

by Joe 2004-11-01 08:11AM | 0 recs
Token bush Pick
Since no one will pick him, I say Bush 538-0.  His dynamic leadership leads to a sweep of every state; everyone finally understands it is unamerican to vote against the president during war time, regardless what the law says.  Leads to a 75-25 majority in the Senate as Democrats defect to the GOP in record numbers.  327-108 victory in the house guarentees all Bush legislation passes.  On Jan 21, Congress passes a bill calling for the re-education of all dissident democrats.  Those who won't change are terminated.  On Jan 22, Congress passes the no Tax amendment, which has a secret rider no one notices.  This bans taxes AND eliminates voting rights for Minorities, urban women and 2nd party members.  Passed by special elections before people realize the added clause.  On Aug 1, Congress changes definition of elections to mean Bush elects the senators and house reps.  Jeffords and Pelosi's heads are arrested as dissidents and their heads are put on pikes outside the white house.  On Aug 2, Congress kicks out all Democrats.  Bush appoints remaining members to have a 100% control in the house.  House votes to give Bush absolute power.  Bush thanks them by executing all but the staunchest conservatives on Aug 3.  With no opposition, Bush launches a 5 month war, taking over the middle east and "accidentally" launching 2000 nukes at what remains of Euorpe.  He also invades Asia and takes over all countries with efficient sweat shop labor.  On Jan 19, 2006 Bush declares victory on the world, disbands the UN and becomes World dictator.  He changes the hard to pronounce countries to places like BOB and FRED.

On Jan 20, 2006 Bush is found dead, victim of choking on a pretzel.  The internets don't care as they cazn only be used for bible study now.  

by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Token bush Pick
And Walter Mondale goes on television thanking the state of Minnesota for not having him killed.

The Senate would be 77-23, though. Other than this, perfect predictions.

(oy vey.)

by TheGaffer 2004-11-01 08:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Token bush Pick
LOL
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Token bush Pick
The sad thing is I am sure that there are some on both sides that would love this scenario (reversed for the radical left).
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Token bush Pick
Race2004.net has a little thing you can enter with your predictions, and you can see everyone else's predictions too.

One of them showed it as over 400 EV for Kerry, with only Texas and Florida for Bush, which I tabbed the "Screw republicans" entry.

I'm still saying 317-221.

by TheGaffer 2004-11-01 08:49AM | 0 recs
Pop: Kerry 50.4% - Bush 47.7%; EC: Kerry 322-216
Kerry gets solid Northeast (117 EVs); solid West Coast (incl. HI) (77 EVs); all the Midwest except MO and IN (85 EVs); FL (27 EVs), and 3 out of 4 of NM, NV, AR, and WV (15-16 EVs; let's call it 16).

VA comes in at 50-48 Bush: close but no cigar.

by RT 2004-11-01 08:16AM | 0 recs
I'm projecting a Bush win.
Because, someone here had to. Because, when someone asks me "Is this glass half-full or half-empty?" I respond, "Some damned Republican stole my glass, and he got a tax credit for doing it." So, consider the source. Because Bush should have been drummed from office for his failures by now, struggling against a 30 percent approval rating while the GOP ran McCain or at least a competent ideologue against Kerry instead. Too many people in the Party of Teddy Roosevelt and the Party of Lincoln are trying to turn it into the Party of Ken Lay and the Party of Bull Conner.
by Brian CB 2004-11-01 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: I'm projecting a Bush win.
Hey no fair trying to steal my pick.  I HAD THE TOKEN BUSH PICK!!!!
538-0!!!
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:31AM | 0 recs
Kerry wins late Tuesday night.
Kerry takes Florida, Ohio and NH. New Hampshire is not even close, I was there the other day and republicans are for Kerry.  Florida will be a lot closer than Ohio, but the Puerto Rican vote in Florida will put Kerry over the top. (Along with Bush not pulling 80% of the Cubans) Ohio is easily Kerry's.  

At the same time, Kerry loses New Mexico because of their relatively good economy.  Iowa also goes GOP.  Total tally: Kerry 299-Bush 239.

by brownbear 2004-11-01 08:16AM | 0 recs
fox news
My wife just called me to say that Fox News just sited a poll that asked if you had to vote for president today who would you vote for.  The results were 49% Kerry and 40% Bush

ttyle

by emitetsaw 2004-11-01 08:16AM | 0 recs
just my opinion
sorry, but I am really nervous about this. I see a repeat of 2000. Kerry takes the popular vote by less than 1% and the EV tally tips to bush because of Florida.

Kerry- 269
Bush- 271

by Timby 2004-11-01 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: just my opinion
UM, it appears you are using fuzzy math.  That prediction is impossible.  
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: just my opinion
sorry, the math is wrong. But you know what I mean. I believe the election will be stolen in florida again.
by Timby 2004-11-01 09:03AM | 0 recs
Kerry wins
Kerry - 51%
Bush - 48%

Kerry - 311 EVs (The Gore states + Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire)
Bush - 227 EVs

I'm really feeling that Kerry's making a charge. The attitude on the Right Wing is one in which they know they might lose. Rush Limbaugh is in a panic.

by RBH 2004-11-01 08:25AM | 0 recs
I predict popular vote: 55% Kerry 43% Bush
I predict for the electoral vote, that Kerry wins all the EVs except the 10 in Arizona.
by emitetsaw 2004-11-01 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: I predict popular vote: 55% Kerry 43% Bush
I would have said Georgia or SC
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: I predict popular vote: 55% Kerry 43% Bush
I figured that someone would say Texas
by emitetsaw 2004-11-01 08:36AM | 0 recs
Re: I predict popular vote: 55% Kerry 43% Bush
Utah?
by iamajd2b 2004-11-01 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: I predict popular vote: 55% Kerry 43% Bush
Well I thought about it but I think Texas will be closer than last time.  Low 2 digits or upper single...maybe 9-13%
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 10:55AM | 0 recs
Predictions
Kerry 331 Bush 207.

The popular vote percentages will be as follows:  Kerry 51.7 Bush 46.6 & Other 1.7.  Kerry wins all the state Gore won plus Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Arkansas, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.  This is my conservative estimate.

I can also see Kerry winning Missouri, Virginia and Arizona for a EC vote of 365/163

The Senate race switches as follows:
Alaska R to D
Colorado R to D
Illinois R to D
Kentucky R to D
Oklahoma R to D

Losses:
Georgia D to R

Saves:
Florida
South Carolina
North Carolina

Undecided due to runoff:
Louisiana

End result is Democrats 51, Republican 47 Und. 1
To be determined 1.

House - Democrats within 5 or less.

by ajleiker 2004-11-01 08:35AM | 0 recs
Jeff Fecke
Kerry 311 Bush 227
Kerry 51% Bush 47% Nader 1% Other 2%

Call it a hunch.  My gut tells me that the energy on the left is bigger than the energy on the right.

Besides, FOX has Kerry by 2, and Gallup has him tied.  That means he has to lead by at least 4.

by moderateleft 2004-11-01 08:37AM | 0 recs
The bad news.
500,000 voters (D's) are challenged in Fl Oh and Wi.  By the end of the night, Bush has a lead in all 3.  On Wed. Bush declares victory and the Repug propoganda machine starts crying that the Dems are trying to commit voter fraud by having people vote after the election is over.

After several weeks, America grows frustrated over the fight, the supreme court says the voters don't get a chance to vote after election day, and America's great experiment in democracy ends on Nov.2,2004.

Only a large GOTV effort tommorrow will prove me wrong.  How many people will YOU get to the polls tommorrow?

by pollwatcher 2004-11-01 08:48AM | 0 recs
asdf
Kerry gets 311 EVs.  

I have no idea about popular vote.  I'll say Kerry by 51 to 47.  2% for the Nader, et. al.

by Terp 2004-11-01 08:52AM | 0 recs
My picks...
Bush wins all his safe states (SE & W)
Kerry wins all his safe states (NE & W Coast)

Bush wins CO, MO, IA, NM & OH - 266
Kerry wins NH, PA, FL, MN, WI - 272

We don't know 'for sure' until January but the election is called for Kerry about 4AM EST... after OH & FL flip flop a few times.

::::::

Senate - GOP gains 2
HOR - GOP gains 8

I think I/UDs will 'balance' their Kerry 'break' by voting for GOP congress/senate...

There will be two orthogonal mandates.

by dryfly 2004-11-01 08:55AM | 0 recs
Re: My picks... forgot PV
Popular vote will be almost tied - Bush leads by a few hunderd thousand. This is because Bush has bigger leads in his safe states than Kerry in his - my perception anyway.

:::::::::::::::

Neo-cons will say the media stole 'their' election.

by dryfly 2004-11-01 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: My picks...
Got FL & OH backwards... should be:

Bush wins CO, MO, IA, NM & FL - 266
Kerry wins NH, PA, OH, MN, WI - 272

by dryfly 2004-11-01 09:04AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Kerry - 317
Bush - 221

Kerry will win FL, PA & OH..... the surprises will be AR & NM also for Kerry

popular vote:

Kerry 52
Bush 46

by jvc 2004-11-01 08:57AM | 0 recs
Our Predictions
I love all Kerry predictions above - and because it feels good, we are basking in the possible landslide results  -  but if the final results do not quite add up to our expectations, let's remember that a month ago we would have all gladly settled for a 270 win for Kerry - and we will all be thankful.
by Dorothy Ligon 2004-11-01 08:57AM | 0 recs
The devil in me says...
I pickedKerry above (my head) but I fear  that somehoe Bush will squeek out both FL & OH and win.

I try to cast that devil out every night... but at about 2AM he is back. He looks a lot like Dick Cheney....

by dryfly 2004-11-01 09:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Our Predictions
Oh, I'll take 270 no problem!
by jvc 2004-11-01 10:02AM | 0 recs
prediction
Kerry 273 minimum, 385 max.
by hawkseye 2004-11-01 09:02AM | 0 recs
A Pessimist's Prediction, apologies in advance
EV:  Bush 274, Kerry 264

Because Bush wins OH and FL.  Though Kerry wins more of the states we've all been sweating - MN, IA, WI, MI, NH, NJ, HI and even NM, Bush ekes out victories in just NV, CO as well as FL and OH, but those 4 get Bush not Kerry over 270.

PV:  Kerry over Bush by < 1%.  That's right, we Democrats again win the popular vote but lose in the Electoral College.

I fervently hope I'm wrong, and maybe this is the way I have to prepare myself. (Tomorrow I'm a lawyer volunteering with Election Protection and will be at EP's Denver field office taking calls from Denver EP precinct monitors with issues)

by AmericasBiggestProblemtheRepublicanParty 2004-11-01 09:08AM | 0 recs
Re: A Pessimist's Prediction, apologies in advance
No apologies needed.  I can't stand the attitudes of some that say if you're not pollyannish, you're not welcome here (or in other blogs).  I only care about facts and common sense.

Everything's possible in this race.  Things seem to be trending Kerry's way, but, as you know, there are many troubling possibilities out there, among the many positive ones.  

Your scenario is entirely possible.  Hopefully, it won't happen.  I tend to think the chances are better that it could happen in reverse, where Kerry could pull off the EV and lose PV because of big red state wins for Bush.  

If Bush wins again via the EV and not PV, he'll be more than the normal lame duck.  He won't have any mandate whatsoever to do anything.  He'll become the most irrelevant president of modern times, in my view, under that scenario.  Second termers are already weakened.  Add to that the failure to capture the PV twice would really take him down.  

by Slikkster 2004-11-01 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: A Pessimist's Prediction, apologies in advance
Bush or Kerry sweeping isn't plausible but that being said, I agree.  I think the swing is 320 max on either side.  Somewhere in that range will the final tally lie.
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: A Pessimist's Prediction, apologies in advance
I don't think will be weakened if he wins regardless.  He knows how to play ball with the GOP controlled senate.  I truly think the IRS is gone if he wins a second term (hello VAT) and he will push through some other things.  Ultimately, only a Dem controlled Senate will keep the rich from doubling up, while we suck out on the river.
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 11:28AM | 0 recs
Pres Prediction
I'm predicting a Kerry Pop Vote Majority of
51% to 48%
and an Electoral College Kerry Win of
311 to 227.
Kerry wins all of Gore's states plus New Hampshire, Ohio, and Florida (actually this was a Gore state).
by Camus 2004-11-01 09:14AM | 0 recs
Questions breed questions
I've already predicted Bush's win elsewhere, feeling great sickness in the pit of the tummy about it.  I think we're in trouble and the trouble is going to get worse.  I hope I'm wrong.  Ojalá. DV. God willin'.

Smart people this morning were counseling:  keep an eye on how incumbent Congressional reps do, particularly the Dems.  That will tell us a lot more about where we're going in future than the presidential election will.  I think that makes sense.

Reading other's commentaries -- here and elsewhere in Blog Nation -- I agree with those who think Osama is grateful to Bush for screwing things up in Iraq, giving him a whole new area of operation, many more adherents, and a real shot in the arm for his jihad.  Mostly, though, I think OBL likes the feeling that he's affecting national and international politics.   The attraction of being able to talk at people without having to listen to them -- wow, OBL's a lot like Bush!

And a question, please:  Are we going to predict the direction of the stock market over, say, three weeks following the election?  Or maybe two weeks, so we don't bump into that Christmas season which is predicted to be crummy for sales.  In this case, I take election to mean "knowing who won"!

by Bean 2004-11-01 09:17AM | 0 recs
Prediction/Scenario
Election night: Ohio and Florida stalemated/chaos.
Kerry seems to be "winning but much strangeness/voter suppression in Cleveland, etc. and what goes on in Florida seems worse.

Jeb Bush revs up the software to tilt the vote count, 150,000 Kerry votes about to vanish into digital oblivion.  But wait....

Wisconson and Iowa declared for Kerry

Nevada or NM goes for Kerry.

But what stays the executioners hand is....

ARKANSAS 6 votes for Kerry and (if I counted right) 270 electoral votes without ohio or florida.

The election lost anyway, florida and ohio are allowed to go uncontested to Kerry

Jeb only uses his election software to steal the election for Martinez.

One out of two isn't bad.

I agree with Clinton that Kerry was crazy not to contest Arkansas.

Due Diligence:  Im 57, grew up on a dairy farm in the Arkansas Ozarks where my mother also lived many years in retirement.  Also went to high school and college in Miami.  Adult life New York City.  Very cynical about elections in Florida

by Reptile 2004-11-01 09:30AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Kerry 272
Bush 266

Bush wins Florida, NM, Iowa

Kerry wins PA, WIS, OH, NH, HI

Neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, although Kerry comes really close.

I predict no show-stopping litigation, although whichever party loses will initiate a few sour grapes lawsuits alleging voter fraud (if Reps lose) or voter suppression (if we lose).  Nonetheless, there will be a winner by very early Wednesday morning.

by alhill 2004-11-01 09:37AM | 0 recs
Predictions
Kerry 345
Bush 193

Kerry over 52%

I think Texas is the sleeper, Rain in the eastren part of the State on Tuesday will suppress Republican turnout.  Heavy early voting in El Paso/Austin helps Kerry.

by northlake1 2004-11-01 09:50AM | 0 recs
Kerry 55% pop and 385 EVs
Our predictions are only as good as our information, and right now we're relying heavily on national opinion polls.  If this election has taught us anything, it should be that national opinion polls are suspect.  But it's important to hold onto at least a semblance of rationality, so we rely on them.  We do the best we can with what we've got.

But the situation on the ground is quite different than the one portrayed by the national media.  (Isn't strange that we progressives simultanesouly hold the mainstream national media in contempt and yet rely on them for information?  They've gotten precious little in the past decade right.  Why trust them now?)  And the Dems finally got back to their bread and butter ground game.  The dead-heat polls, the incumbent rule, the prez's dismal approval rating, Kerry's current leads in IA and FL: Bush is toast.

Kerry sweeps every swing state and picks up AL, WV, VA, and NC.  (He might even do better.)  Only the hardcore red states show anything more than lukewarm support for Bush.  There's some litigation, but it's half-hearted.  Bush has been unmandated and everyone knows it.

GOTV!

by powersjq 2004-11-01 09:58AM | 0 recs
Even more optimistic than my actual pick...
After 2000, my true feelings lie everywhere around this.  Coming home thinking Gore had won in 2000 only to see Bush's questionable coronation shook my faith in everything regarding presidential elections.  However, I can't help but have hope that there's something a-brewin' and that the polls will be turned upside down...

PV: 53-45
EV: 332-206
Bush gain: IA
Kerry gain: CO, VA, AR, NH, OH, "FL" (i think he'll win NV and IA but decided to rein it in a bit)

by thurst 2004-11-01 10:04AM | 0 recs
Election prediction
My prediction is the following: John Kerry will be win in CA, CT, DE, DC, FL, HI, Ill, ME, MD, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI with the possibility of picking up AR, CO, MO, NV, VA & WV.
The rest for the band of theives called the Republican Party.
This adds up to Kerry 306 to Bush 232, with a possible max for Kerry of 360.
Kerry should win the popular vote by 3-5% (The same margin of victory in FL)

I do not understand why in many polls WA (my home state) Kerry is considered leaning where I see it as a solid state for Kerry.  The Secretary of State predicts over 80% turnout in this state, if true even more Democrats may be elected.

by WAProgressive 2004-11-01 10:09AM | 0 recs
My two cents
Kerry 274 - 264 Bush
Kerry 50.1% Bush 48% other 1.9%
Kerry Bush
FL    OH
NM    IA
NH    WS

With a GOP Congress to force Kerry to gevern from the center, look for a Kerry landslide in 2008 with enough coattails to give the Congress back to the Dems. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Let us pray that we suffer no further terrorist attacks of 9/11 or greater magnitude, because if we do, all bets are off.

"Paul Goodman"

by Paul Goodman 2004-11-01 10:12AM | 0 recs
I see it
Bush 294 K 244
Bush 51, Kerry 48
by pkmun2 2004-11-01 10:16AM | 0 recs
Re: I see it
Tomorrow will be a sad day for you. Poor guy.
by ddPCR 2004-11-01 10:20AM | 0 recs
Re: I see it
I thought we were supposed to give honest predictions, not wishes.
by pkmun2 2004-11-01 04:48PM | 0 recs
OH, FL, WI go to Bush, Kerry wins
Kerry wins 270-268.
Kerry: NV NM AR WV
Bush: WI OH FL

Kerry faces intense pressure to concede after news that Bush won Ohio and Florida. He doesn't, and is vindicated when WV and AR are called for him with under 1000 votes. Lawyers descend.

After a week of vitriol, a massive Republican fraud is uncovered in Florida. The whole plot unravels, with FL, WI, OH, VA, and NC results being overturned. FBI arrests Rove, Norquist, Jeb Bush, Harris, Blackwell, and tens of operatives.

Kerry is inaugurated with 355 EV. Serious questions remain about fraud in KY, TN, MS, LA but Republicans are all singing "Let bygones be bygones". Still, low level operatives keep blowing the whistle. Democrats ram through sweeping electoral reform amendment and bills before Republicans come to. Greens try to get changes into the bills but are ignored.

Republican party splits in three, left-wing Democrats and Greens are talking about a new party. Politics becomes the new baseball.

Kerry is re-elected in 2008. Democrats have both houses 2006-2008, but are starting to splinter going into the 2012 elections. Edwards' nomination is challended by Dean, but he ends up with the presidency with only 32% of the vote. Other candidates are Dean (25%), Santorum (32%), and G. P. Bush (11%).

Oil hits $120/barrel in 2015. The right wing is split into eight insignificant parties whose paramilitaries mainly raid each others' offices. Senator Obama joins with California Governor Gavin Newsom as his VP and sweeps the 2016 elections at the head of the new left party.

Just me and my crystal ball ;-)

by idook 2004-11-01 10:20AM | 0 recs
under radar
Although i have been pessimistic about Kerry's chances for week's now, I have  had a vision.  A vision brought on by too much coffee and Halloween chocolate for sure, but a vision nonetheless.

Young people and poor people are massively undercounted by the land-line polls.  The GOTV effort succeeds on Dem side and Kerry wins in a landslide.

After much number crunching, it will be due to a doubling in 18-30 year old voters, leaning heavily Democratic.

336-202.

by Robert P 2004-11-01 10:33AM | 0 recs
Kerry wins
320-218
by PonnyJ 2004-11-01 10:33AM | 0 recs
Kerry 270, Bush 268
2004: Revenge of the Rust Belt (thank you Ohio)

Kerry: Ohio, Iowa, MN, MI, PA, NM, HI

Bush: FL (contested), Co, NV, NH (NH very close)

FL and OH will be contested, other significant challenging law suits will be brought as well.

Ohio will go significantly for Kerry, the contests there will be seen to be what they in fact are: GOP troublemaking.

In any case, we will know the results early Wednesday am, despite the law suits. A narrow but certain Kerry victory.

The senate will be 50/50.

The house will be GOP.

More significantly Kerry WILL have a mandate and the GOP will be in complete disarray. The GOP will be leaderless and directionless for MORE THAN 8 years.

Kerry will use the vocal, partisan and obstinate GOP House to pound down the GOP into the significanly out of power minority party it so richly deserves to be.

Kerry gets 8 years, Edwards gets 8 years as a new generation of activist voters have now been allow to so clearly see and understand what the GOP has allowed itself to become, a political party of liars, corporate theives, religous nut cases, racists and the total uneducated, culturally isolated losers from the farm states and the sourth east who have cast their lot with them.

A new Democratic majority will emerge from the South West and Florida, combined with the North East, West and Mid West Rust Belt.

Kerry Agenda;

  1. Middle East: seek policies with a regional consensus to resolve the Iraq and Iran and Palestinian issues, this will be the most important tool in the effort to reduce and control international terrorism
  2. Work with Asia to integrate North Korea into the regional economy and reduce its extremist tendencies
  3. Work with Europe to rebuild our vital international relations and strenghten the UN
  4. Work with South America and Latin America to promote economic revitalization
  5. Work with the UN and actually fund aid to Africa and limited interventions where required
  6. Strenghten the dollar
  7. Repeal the tax laws which promote job outsourcing to low wage nations
  8. Completely force out companies who have outsourced their labor from Federal AND State government contracts, institute tax penalties for companies who outsource labor and still expect to have the benefit of US (legal and physical) infrastructure
  9. Promote enery alternatives to oil for the US, seek and produce US energy independence
  10. Repair the damage to environmental law done by the Bush Administration and the GOP in 200 - 2004
  11. Successful promotion of international law and agreements against both nuclear proliferation and the proliferation of biological weapons  
  12. Completely revise the FCC and promote an independent and honest media as well as a healthy and competitive communications industry
  13. Secure Social Security, revise the Medicare drug benefit, create an affordable medical plan for all Americans based on an extension of programs in place
by leschwartz 2004-11-01 10:39AM | 0 recs
Prediction
Kerry EV 306-232. Popular Vote: 50.3% - 48.2%
by AntonyE 2004-11-01 10:53AM | 0 recs
As I've neen saying for the last four years
No president who lost the popular vote has ever served a second term. This election has been sort of like watching an action-suspense-thriller movie. You're pretty sure the hero is going to win -- he always does -- but you still tense up during all the cliffhanger scenes. Maybe, just maybe, Batman won't be able to wiggle his way out of the Penguin's elaborate death trap this time. Maybe presidential election history won't repeat itself this time.

Still presidential election history has repeated itself in other ways. Bush Sr was the first vice president to succeed his president by election since Martin Van Buren. Van Buren lost his bid for a second term. So did Bush. Washington's VP John Adams had also succeeded him via election. Adams was also gone after a single term.

John Adams and George H.W. Bush seem to have a lot in common. Both were vice-presidents under popular two term presidents. Both became one term presidents. And both had sons who also become presidents under hotly contested elections where they lost the popular vote. John Adams' son lost the second time around.

Unless history decides to throw us an unexpected surprise,  George Bush's son is not going to win a second term.

by patbuddha 2004-11-01 11:11AM | 0 recs
My prediction
Kerry - 277
Bush - 261

I don't trust Florida, even if we are ahead there, becuase of all the legal tricks Bush can pull.  I also conceded Iowa as it looks a little too close for comfort there.  This score assumes Kerry takes Ohio, keeps all the midwestern states (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan,) and takes New Mexico.

by Kjorteo 2004-11-01 11:24AM | 0 recs
Edwards
I'm all for 8 years of Kerry, but I don't think I can take 8 years of Edwards, who has always annoyed the hell out of me.  Edwards doesn't have the chops to be president, but he makes a nice VP.
by alhill 2004-11-01 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Edwards
I disagree.  I like Edwards much more than Kerry.  
by yitbos96bb 2004-11-01 11:46AM | 0 recs
most break kerry's way
Kerry: 312 including FL, PA, OH, WI, MI, MN, NM and 1 rogue elector from WV
by Master Ninja 2004-11-01 11:28AM | 0 recs
handicapping
Here's how I score the upcoming presidential election.  The folks at www.dataseers.com have conducted a rudimentary meta-analysis of the most recent state-level polls.  This approach has the advantage of removing many states from the "battleground" column into relatively safe states for one candidate or another.  For example, this meta-analysis puts Pennsylvania solidly in the Kerry column and Florida solidly in the Bush column.  It has the disadvantage of possibly missing very late trends in the polling data.  This approach puts all states but five solidly (85% chance or more of winning) in one camp or another.  Of those five states, I don't believe that three (Arizona, Hawaii, and Michigan) are really in play.  Arizona will go for Bush, Hawaii and Michigan for Kerry.  That leaves only two states really in play: Iowa, with seven electoral votes, and Ohio, with twenty.

An appendix with how I call the states is listed at the bottom.  But the real bottom line is that Bush has 259 safe electoral votes, and Kerry 252.  That makes Iowa irrelevant, and Ohio the state that will make a big difference.  (Unless, of course, Hawaii really is in play, in which case Bush could lose Ohio, but win, with 270 electoral votes, by carrying Iowa and Hawaii).

If you're looking for an early indicator, check New Hampshire.  Kerry should take this one; if he doesn't it's going to be a long night for Democrats.  There probably isn't a good early indicator for Bush.  Florida would be, of course, but after what happened in 2000 the networks are going to wait forever to call that one.

So, the election really is too close to call, but saying that is the coward's way out.  Who's really going to win?  The Democrats could win if they dramatically increase voter turnout, but I don't believe they really have the troops to do that.  Blame this on Tony Coelho and his inheritors.  Failing sharply increased turnout, the election will turn on late trends.  So how will the late deciders break?  They're going to break for Bush.  The one issue on which he has consistently led Kerry throughout the campaign is ability to fight the war on terror.  (I'm not saying he is better, just that he's consistently perceived to be better, and by a large margin).  With Friday's release of the Osama bin Laden tape, that issue is going to have more salience in voters' minds.  Hence, Bush wins.

As for the Senate and House, don't sweat it.  They're both staying Republican.

Happy election!  Vote early and often!

BUSH STATES (electoral votes in parentheses)
Alaska (3)
Alabama (7)
Arkansas (6)
Arizona (10)
Colorado (9)
Florida (27)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Missouri (11)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Nebraska (5)
New Mexico (5)
Nevada (5)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Virginia (13)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

KERRY STATES
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
D.C. (3)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Massachusetts (12)
Maryland (10)
Maine (4)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)

STATES IN PLAY
Iowa (7)
Ohio (20)

by mcintyre 2004-11-01 11:51AM | 0 recs
agpc
Kerry:  306
Bush:  232

Kerry: 51%
Bush:  48%

by agpc 2004-11-01 12:47PM | 0 recs
Prediction
Unfortunately:

Bush 50%
Kerry 49%
Others 1%

Bush 279
Kerry 259

Bush holds on to Ohio and Florida.  The candidates trade New Mexico and New Hampshire.

I hope I'm wrong.

by Paleo 2004-11-01 12:57PM | 0 recs
Predictions
This is sort of a boring one:
-Kerry holds Gore states
-Kerry picks up OH, FL, NH
-Kerry wins 311-227
-Night begins by them calling MA & RI.  They then continue to call much of the NE for Kerry and GA, SC, TN, AL, etc for Bush.  Strangely they don't call VA or NC along with the rest of the south.  This will be the first sign that Bush is in trouble.  We will know the results by Wed. morning.

Margins in swing states:
AZ  Bush by 4
AR  Bush by 4
CO  Bush by 3
FL  Kerry by 1
IA  Kerry by <1
MI  Kerry by 6
MN  Kerry by 3
MO  Bush by 3
NV  Bush by 2
NH  Kerry by 3
NM  Kerry by 1
NC  Bush by 3
OH  Kerry by 1
OR  Kerry by 7
PA  Kerry by 5
VA  Bush by 3
WV  Bush by 2
WI  Kerry by 2

by asearchforreason 2004-11-01 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Predictions
Oops, forgot the popular vote.

Kerry 50%
Bush 48.5%
Other 1.5%

by asearchforreason 2004-11-01 01:01PM | 0 recs
Prediction: Kerry WINS
Kerry takes the Gore States plus Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and New Hamphshire.

Popular Vote: Kerry with 50%-48

Early voting is proving to be the highest turnout in a decade.

by Rudy 2004-11-01 01:20PM | 0 recs
pick
Kerry 50%-49%

EV: Kerry 276, Bush 262

Senate stays the same (after LA is known).

We pick up 4 seats in the house.

by godotnut 2004-11-01 01:31PM | 0 recs
315
315 EV's for Kerry.  If I did my math right, here is how it stacks up:

(WA, OR, CA, NM, HI, FL, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, OH, PA, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, and 4 EVs from CO).

Also, a shameless plug for my blog.
I put up a prediction thread too and will ship a piece of worthless merchandise to the winner!

by Tito 2004-11-01 01:55PM | 0 recs
Prediction: Kerry wins EC 311-227
GOTV results in Kerry taking most, if not all, of the close states: NH, OH, FL, WI, PA, MN, MI, IA, and NM.  Bush probably takes: WV, CO, and NV.

Popular vote will be much closer, and it would hopefully bring on much needed reform (get rid of the Electoral College!) if Bush got Gored, ie. winning the popular vote but losing the EC.  I'll go Kerry 49.5%, Bush 48.2%

by Eyes of the World 2004-11-01 01:58PM | 0 recs
Kerry 311 Bush 227
Kerry wins Gore states + NH, FL, and OH.

Kerry gets 50.3% of vote, Bush gets 47.8%.

Badnarik gets more votes than Nader.

by danielj 2004-11-01 02:06PM | 0 recs
THE DEMS GROUND GAME ,VOTER TURNOUT, NEW VOTERS,
,,ETC OH YEAH INDEPENDENTS AND UNDECIDEDS BREAKING
FOR KERRY.

New Hamphire to me will be an early indicator
if it is a Kerry 52-47 then its Kerry 300+

Please note when it starts tommorow night
about the massive voter turnout...that bodes
well for Kerry..the voters are motivated over
something and bush is the only one with the
record the last 4 years so I say they are
motivated to go against incumbent.

Of course there will be a surprise..could
be Arkansas
   Virginia
   Nevada
   Missouri

all going Kerry although barely.. again because
of the factors of voter turnout,,,new voters
and incumbent rule

I am optimistic it will be Kerry
tommorow is a day of hard work
but then great celebration!

Kerry in a landslide because of new voters

by Aslanspal 2004-11-01 02:52PM | 0 recs
Kerry 306-232
Kerry picks up OH, FL, NH, drops NM.

Popular vote 50-48.

by al1 2004-11-01 02:57PM | 0 recs
Close, oh so very close
Kerry wins in FL and NH, Bush picks up WI and NM

Pop vote:  49.8 Kerry
           48.6 Bush

 

by PropMan 2004-11-01 03:12PM | 0 recs
Predictions
Some good predictions and analysis here. I forgot my House prediction: GOP picks up 4 seats. Also, Badnarik gets 1 million votes and beats Nader.
by Mark Fulwiler 2004-11-01 03:59PM | 0 recs
Bush Wins ...
with 46% of the popular vote and 56% of the Supreme Court.
by Left for the Left 2004-11-01 05:09PM | 0 recs
Oh ye of little faith
You can ignore the incumbent rule.  New voters, young voters, minority voters, democratic voters are being consistently under-represented in the polls.  I think Tucker Carlson is right (i was gonna say correct)  Kerry at least 51% with a mandate.. Bush under 48.  

EV  311 (291 w/o Ohio)  Kerry definately takes Florida!  People here are so pissed over '00.. lots of motivated Kerry voters.  

And on Hawaii.. thats so funny.  Kerry by at least 9%.  I think the state tourist board and the Advertiser made up the close numbers so everyone would talk about what a great place it is to visit and do more research.  And so they would get some attention tomorrow night.  I lived there for three years and knew only two party line republicans.  The only reason the GOP took the state house was because the Dems there were so powerful they became arrogant and corrupt (Waihee and Cateyano were almost as bad as old man Daley in Chicago.)  Inouye and Akaka will insure a strong Kerry win.

by Winston Smith 2004-11-01 05:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh ye of little faith
And Virginia will be TOO CLOSE TO CALL, after FL goes into the Kerry column
by Winston Smith 2004-11-01 05:52PM | 0 recs
The Other Incumbent Rule
Incumbent presidents either win big or lose big.  Do you think Bush will win big?  Then its a comfortable Kerry victory.
by Winston Smith 2004-11-01 06:08PM | 0 recs
Pete from PA says 311-227 K50/B48.5/O1.5
Mark me down for the "Dem-leaning CW" prediction.  

James Carville convinced me and a somber and subdued Pat Buchanan (unintentionally) confirmed.  Also, Charlie Cook looked frazzled on Meet the Press when he sheepishly predicted Bush would win with 271 (of all numbers).  He looks like a guy who has been crunching poll numbers way too much!

In other words, I'm buying the Big Picture/Ultra-High Turnout Tidal Wave argument.  

Kerry gets all Gore states plus NH, FL and OH.

Amen.

P.S.  I am kind of depressed after all my hard work and independent research to discover that my carefully considered prediction has already been labeled "conventional".  I really didn't copy!

by Peter 2004-11-01 06:24PM | 0 recs
Kerry in a close one
I'll predict that the only changes from 2000 are FL and NH to Kerry, NM to Bush. Kerry 50-49 in the popular vote.
by EvanstonDem 2004-11-01 06:53PM | 0 recs
the conventional wisdom
I posted my final guess on my blog on Thursday.  Turns out to be the same as what a lot of people are guessing -- Gore + OH, FL, NH.  I've got my money on the same guess in a betting pool.

As far as I can tell, this is by far the commonest prediction.  I've seen several people suggest the exact same scenario.  Still others have offered the 311-227 count without naming the states specifically, but this seems to be what they have in mind (unless maybe they're swapping WI for WV+NM).

mdl

by mdl 2004-11-01 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: the conventional wisdom
My formal prediction.. Kerry: Gore states +NH, FL.

OH, MO, NM, NV too close to call on election day
OH, NM to Kerry,
MO, NV to Bush

by Winston Smith 2004-11-01 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: the conventional wisdom
And CO too close to call, but goes to Bush
by Winston Smith 2004-11-01 07:31PM | 0 recs
Notes from a small island
The view from England.

The momentum is all for Kerry.  He will lift over 300 EV's, including FL, OH, PA  and WV.  

Bush will be defoliated and the very upset ROVE will be OVER!!

by Earthling 2004-11-01 07:51PM | 0 recs

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