All Your October Surprises Are Belong To Us

With the latest news, I think it is pretty clear that we won the October surprise battle. Granted, there are still a few days until the election, but it seems like this week all of the "October Surprises" were ours: This week, we own them.

Tags: Media (all tags)



keep your head
Everyone be sure to keep your head these last 5 days.  It's probably best to ignore polls from now on in if you can (I know, I know, it's impossible), but be especially critical of everything you see and hear.  Rove's "inevitability" play may have failed, but he's going to do everything he can (e.g., leaking lots of fake "internal" poll results to reporters who dutifully suck up and report their flavor uncritically) to try to demoralize us.  He wants voters not to vote, and he wants volunteers not to volunteer.  
This is close enough to win, and it's close enough to lose.  And whether we win or lose depends a lot more on us than on anything JK, GWB or anyone else says or does.  So go out there and make it happen.
by WSW 2004-10-28 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: keep your head - BUT
Agree in the main,

but remember that a Terror Alert raises Bush for 3 days before sanity returns (according to some university study) - we aren't that close yet - Sat/Sun are the days to watch....

by fatbear 2004-10-28 01:43PM | 0 recs
What you say?!
I think that they've hit the button a few too many times for it to have much effect on the election. Especially since it's not going to be much of a surprise.
by ploeg 2004-10-28 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: What you say?!
I agree with ploeg.  And if they hadn't cried wolf so many times before, it might actually make for a real ace in the hole.  Then again, if they hadn't politicized this issue like everything else, they wouldn't be who they are.  
by Haggai 2004-10-28 02:17PM | 0 recs
Another potential snafu
is the "terror video"  Drudge is trying to hype.  Urk.  

See JMM/TPM's notes on this.

by Carol 2004-10-28 01:38PM | 0 recs
by stevecar 2004-10-28 04:42PM | 0 recs
did we have help with the October surprises?
You never, NEVER piss off The Company.

The CIA knows where all the bodies are buried, and they're gonna drop the dime on you the week before the election.

This dish is being served ice-cold.

by quijano 2004-10-28 01:56PM | 0 recs
The best political ad I've seen this year
The Independent Voters of America have come out strong against Bush.

"Those who have died in Iraq can't vote.  You can."

The Independent Voters of America

by triplay543 2004-10-28 01:56PM | 0 recs
Really Missing the Boat
Not to rain on your parade, but Bush is surging in the polls this week. Kerry's blunder over 350 tons while we have captured over 400,000 tons of explosives will/is hurting him. Kerry is now on the defense on this issue. It showed number one he acts too quickly over bad intelegence, two he blows things out of proportion and three he will do/say anything to win. More to come.

Tactics don't win elections, but maybe Eminem can shore up the 12-18 year olds with his cartoon. Too bad they can't vote.

by Patrick Henry 2004-10-28 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Really Missing the Boat
That would be 600,000 tons of ammo. And unfortunately the grand preponderance of it is unguarded or inadequately guarded, so that the insurgents can come and go and take what they need when they want.

Thanks for keeping this in the news. It will go a long ways toward underlining the Kerry message.

by ploeg 2004-10-28 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Really Missing the Boat
Surging? Ok, yeah, whatever.

TIPP went from +7 to +3 for Bush. (-4 for Bush)

Zogby went from +3 to +2 for Bush. (-1)

Zogby + leaners went from +3 to +2. (-1)

WashPost RV went from +2 Kerry to +1 Kerry (+1 for Bush).

WashPost LV went from +1 Kerry to +2 Bush (a +3 for Bush, agreed.)

LA Times is now tied at 48. (-2 for Bush)

CNN/USA/Gallup now has it 51-46, the most favorable #s for Bush, but even that is a -3 for Bush.

Harris shows Kerry up 48-47 LV, from 51-43 down in mid-October. That's -4.5 for W.

If you add most of those national polls together, you'd get either A) a tie or B) a Bush lead by 1-2 points. That's a surge?

On a state-by-state basis, it looks like this:

--Bush has fallen into a tie in Iowa, or at best, leads by 1.
--Kerry remains ahead in Minnesota by 2-3 points.
--Of the last 12 non-partisan polls in Ohio, Kerry is leading, including the most recent Zogby and ARG polls. (source: Slate)
--Of the last 14 polls in Pennsylvania, Kerry is leading in 13 of them. (same)
--Kerry is moving ahead in Wisconsin - Zogby and ARG show this.
--The last pollster (Detroit News/Mitchell Rsch.) that had shown Bush winning in Michigan now shows Kerry up by 5. Yes, Zogby shows them at a tie, but we need one more day of confirmation on that. Still, I'm willing to admit that one poll is moving in Bush's favor - even if the others aren't.
--Florida is closing up, according to Zogby, although admittedly the LA Times has Bush up 9. Willing to concede a 2-4 pt edge for Bush here.

On the explosives et al:

  1. nothing the admin. has said has held up. They first said NBC was their proof; didn't work. Then said it was taken by Saddam. IAEA denied this as did Cmdr. Anderson, and Iraqi officials. Then said it was the Russians (interesting tactic). Hasn't panned out.
  2. Rudy blamed the troops today. (Nice going.)
  3. Bush said you can't jump to conclusions -- in effect making the case for why he should be kicked out of office. Jumping to conclusions with WMD, with Iraq/Al Qaeda, with "Mission Accomplished." Nice work.
  4. At no point in the last 4 days has Kerry "defended" on anything, if you've been watching at all. Bush has been on the defensive and their best strategy is to say Kerry is blaming the troops - which is in effect, shielding yourself from blame by saying the other guy says it's someone else's fault. Real responsible, this administration.
  5. Or, they've said "There's lots of weapons everywhere!" That doesn't exactly make the case for the troop levels they decided on, huh?

Some surge. Keep drinking the Kool-Aid, buddy.
by TheGaffer 2004-10-28 02:53PM | 0 recs
No rain here!
I guess you haven't seen the pictures of explosives from an embedded reporter and the IAEA seals which show the stuff was still there when our troops got there.
by CA Pol Junkie 2004-10-28 02:44PM | 0 recs
New Hampshire, Maine
The regional pride and euphoria inspired by the Red Sox win might actually help ever-so-slightly in New Hampshire and the 2nd CD of Maine.  Granted, Kerry likely already has those wrapped up, but a little more won't hurt a bit.
by leftish 2004-10-28 03:16PM | 0 recs
Pre-emptive Strike Required
Somebody, but not John Kerry, needs to call Bush/Cheney out on the terror alert before it is even given.  They need to strike right at the heart of these "terror alerts" and the way the timing matches declines in Bush's poll numbers.  Bush/Cheney have definitely used these terror alerts for political purposes and somebody, but not John Kerry, needs to say that.

Given the ad they ran, they are wide open for a Candidate Who Cries Wolf attack.

by James Earl 2004-10-28 03:23PM | 0 recs
you forgot their surprise - OIL
the price of oil is tanking, thanks to a likely doctored inventories report showing 2X the consensus in reserve.

If it doesn't come up tomorrow, we could all be toast on tuesday.

Anyone wanna buy some?  Actually, its a bargain right now.  When the reserve report is corrected (to be more in line with distillates) you'll see oil spike again.

by flavorflav12 2004-10-28 03:58PM | 0 recs
Doctored Ad
The best part of the doctored ad was it has Bush's voice saying "I'm George Bush, and I approve this message." Unless, of course, it becomes a political liablity, in which case, I will blame someone else. Hopefully, John Kerry.

I think the irony of the title "Whatever it takes" is just too delicious. They have taken it down on their web site with the message "There is something wrong ....." It just gets better and better.

by Tuba Les 2004-10-28 04:05PM | 0 recs
Dear Dubya:
You have no chance to survive, make your time.
by RT 2004-10-28 04:52PM | 0 recs
yes please!
I've been reading for a while. But I just registered so I could say "great post".
A crushing defeat for Bush on Tuesday - and our long national nightmare is over.
by warp resident 2004-10-28 06:09PM | 0 recs
Found in my mailbox from NYT
In case you missed any of these stories, here are the 10 Most Read Articles on over the last two weeks (as of 11 a.m. ET, Oct. 27).

1. Without a Doubt
By RON SUSKIND, Published Oct. 17

2. Huge Cache of Explosives Vanished From Site in Iraq

3. Editorial: John Kerry for President
Published Oct. 17

4. The O'Reilly Factor for Lesbians
By FRANK RICH, Published Oct. 24

5. The Strategy to Secure Iraq Did Not Foresee a 2nd War
By MICHAEL R. GORDON, Published Oct. 19

6. Poll Shows Tie; Concerns Cited on Both Rivals
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and JANET ELDER, Published Oct. 19

7. After Terror, a Secret Rewriting of Military Law
By TIM GOLDEN, Published Oct. 24

8. Op-Ed: Checking the Facts, in Advance
By PAUL KRUGMAN, Published Oct. 12

9. Big G.O.P. Bid to Challenge Voters at Polls in Key State
By MICHAEL MOSS, Published Oct. 23

10. Growing Up With Mom and Mom
By SUSAN DOMINUS, Published Oct. 24

by warp resident 2004-10-28 06:12PM | 0 recs
Damning info on Bush's desire for war
Well, the October surprises just keep coming and coming. has a link to a story written by Rus Baker, based on his interviews with Mickey Herskowitz -- a Houston based journalist who was the original ghost writer for Bush's biography A Charge to Keep.

Among its revelations:
"George W. Bush's beliefs on Iraq were based in part on a notion dating back to the Reagan White House - ascribed in part to now-vice president Dick Cheney, Chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee under Reagan. "Start a small war. Pick a country where there is justification you can jump on, go ahead and invade."

Link to this and let's give it some legs.

by emhansen 2004-10-28 06:26PM | 0 recs


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